Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo — Page 686

CatBus said:

So for those watching the Mueller witness show (making inferences from minor public announcements, because that damn ship doesn’t leak), there’s the carrots (Flynn, Gates, etc) and the sticks (Manafort). But Mueller just handed out an unusually large carrot. Complete immunity, granted to a nasty piece of work who could easily go down for a lot of unsavory shit. I’m hoping he got something equally large in return. And I hope Nader has a security detail, because he could be ratting on any or all of about four different organizations that like to assassinate people for fun and profit.

Questions I have include:

1. What is the crime?
2. Does this have anything to do with Russia?

Mrebo said:

CatBus said:

So for those watching the Mueller witness show (making inferences from minor public announcements, because that damn ship doesn’t leak), there’s the carrots (Flynn, Gates, etc) and the sticks (Manafort). But Mueller just handed out an unusually large carrot. Complete immunity, granted to a nasty piece of work who could easily go down for a lot of unsavory shit. I’m hoping he got something equally large in return. And I hope Nader has a security detail, because he could be ratting on any or all of about four different organizations that like to assassinate people for fun and profit.

Questions I have include:

1. What is the crime?
2. Does this have anything to do with Russia?

You mean the crime being granted immunity or the crime being investigated? If the former, Nader is ick personified – there’s some indicators of that in the article of the sort of crimes being granted immunity. If the latter, we don’t know even that much – all of the specifics are behind the scenes and we don’t see any results until there’s an indictment. As I said, the Mueller team just doesn’t leak so you have to infer a bit. Nader organized the Seychelles meeting between Russian bankers/mobsters and the Trump team (Kushner et al and for some reason Erik Prince IIRC), so that’s the likely link to the Russia investigation. But again, we don’t know much until the indictments come out.

‘Donald Trump’s top Russia lawyer John Dowd resigns’…

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-43506098

CatBus said:

Mrebo said:

CatBus said:

So for those watching the Mueller witness show (making inferences from minor public announcements, because that damn ship doesn’t leak), there’s the carrots (Flynn, Gates, etc) and the sticks (Manafort). But Mueller just handed out an unusually large carrot. Complete immunity, granted to a nasty piece of work who could easily go down for a lot of unsavory shit. I’m hoping he got something equally large in return. And I hope Nader has a security detail, because he could be ratting on any or all of about four different organizations that like to assassinate people for fun and profit.

Questions I have include:

1. What is the crime?
2. Does this have anything to do with Russia?

You mean the crime being granted immunity or the crime being investigated? If the former, Nader is ick personified – there’s some indicators of that in the article of the sort of crimes being granted immunity. If the latter, we don’t know even that much – all of the specifics are behind the scenes and we don’t see any results until there’s an indictment. As I said, the Mueller team just doesn’t leak so you have to infer a bit. Nader organized the Seychelles meeting between Russian bankers/mobsters and the Trump team (Kushner et al and for some reason Erik Prince IIRC), so that’s the likely link to the Russia investigation. But again, we don’t know much until the indictments come out.

I think it was only Prince, a big supporter of Trump, who was at the Seychelles meeting.

Do you think a big scandal of collusion will be uncovered?

Mrebo said:

CatBus said:

Mrebo said:

CatBus said:

So for those watching the Mueller witness show (making inferences from minor public announcements, because that damn ship doesn’t leak), there’s the carrots (Flynn, Gates, etc) and the sticks (Manafort). But Mueller just handed out an unusually large carrot. Complete immunity, granted to a nasty piece of work who could easily go down for a lot of unsavory shit. I’m hoping he got something equally large in return. And I hope Nader has a security detail, because he could be ratting on any or all of about four different organizations that like to assassinate people for fun and profit.

Questions I have include:

1. What is the crime?
2. Does this have anything to do with Russia?

You mean the crime being granted immunity or the crime being investigated? If the former, Nader is ick personified – there’s some indicators of that in the article of the sort of crimes being granted immunity. If the latter, we don’t know even that much – all of the specifics are behind the scenes and we don’t see any results until there’s an indictment. As I said, the Mueller team just doesn’t leak so you have to infer a bit. Nader organized the Seychelles meeting between Russian bankers/mobsters and the Trump team (Kushner et al and for some reason Erik Prince IIRC), so that’s the likely link to the Russia investigation. But again, we don’t know much until the indictments come out.

I think it was only Prince, a big supporter of Trump, who was at the Seychelles meeting.

Do you think a big scandal of collusion will be uncovered?

Scandal/collusion/uncovered all depend on how you define them. “Collusion” is a generic term for activities that vary between illegal and legal. “Scandal” is a social phenomenon, again that can be about something illegal or legal. Scandal can even happen around events that never actually transpired, or are completely routine events. Scandal is about society’s reaction more than the thing itself. “Uncovering” is dependent on the gullibility/denial spectrum of the observer. You can have nothing at all and convince people something has been uncovered, or you can have a mountain of evidence and people saying the jury’s still out.

Evidence of coordination between Trump’s team and Russian intelligence services has been in the public domain since before the election (something Rep. Schiff has been keen to point out after Rep. Nunes said they couldn’t find any evidence of it), so in that sense the collusion is already uncovered, and was a scandal for some and not for others. However, what Mueller’s doing is looking specifically for illegal acts surrounding and related to that collusion, so he may or may not uncover significantly more than the public already knows. That depends a bit on whether and when Mueller’s investigation is shuttered, and what sort of contingency plans he has in place to continue the investigation in that event (offloading to state AG’s and/or foreign law enforcement). The trick is, we don’t really know any of that, but we can be pretty certain that Mueller’s investigation is the only US investigation with federal resources & authority actually looking to see if crimes were committed (as opposed to the Senate and House investigations, or state AG’s). I’m frankly shocked that Mueller is still able to do his job today, and I still really doubt he’ll be permitted to see the investigation through to its conclusion, so we’ll be stuck with partial results in the end.

If I were a betting man, I’d say Mueller’s investigation, before it’s shut down, will still lead to more evidence of arguably legal/arguably illegal collusion, but few if any charges filed on these issues. This in itself will be a fairly huge scandal for some and not for others. He will also file charges (and in fact, he already has) of obstruction/lying to investigators/witness tampering/destruction of evidence which are not about the collusion itself, but about the coverup. Again, I predict this will be a fairly huge scandal for some and not for others. Lastly, I predict a raft of charges of money laundering/tax fraud/bribery/corruption/RICO-type things (such as those charges already filed against Manafort), again not really about the collusion itself, but about illegal things uncovered during the course of the investigation.

At the end you’ll have a fairly unsatisfactory conclusion: the Trump campaign will be exposed to have colluded with Russian intelligence services in an arguably illegal manner, many staffers and high ranking officials will be charged with a broad range of crimes, from obstruction to money laundering. And Trump supporters will still say that collusion is not a crime and this was all a witch hunt by the liberal Comey/Mueller/Rosenstein cabal, a fishing expedition that merely netted a few dozen high-ranking or cabinet-level bad apples who were just low-level volunteers after all.

And, most importantly, I’m still predicting the Republicans will hold the House and Senate in 2018 (although I’m predicting Democrats will win a landslide in terms of votes cast), and that this is when the Mueller investigation will definitely be shut down if it hasn’t been already. So regardless of charges filed, impeachment will never be considered for any officials at any level, and I think Trump will have a strong chance of re-election in 2020. The House and Senate may, however, decide to launch an investigation into Mueller.

EDIT: Unless you’re just asking if I personally think it’s likely there was scandalous illegal collusion between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence services. In which case, I have a much shorter answer: yes.

Mrebo said:

CatBus said:

So for those watching the Mueller witness show (making inferences from minor public announcements, because that damn ship doesn’t leak), there’s the carrots (Flynn, Gates, etc) and the sticks (Manafort). But Mueller just handed out an unusually large carrot. Complete immunity, granted to a nasty piece of work who could easily go down for a lot of unsavory shit. I’m hoping he got something equally large in return. And I hope Nader has a security detail, because he could be ratting on any or all of about four different organizations that like to assassinate people for fun and profit.

Questions I have include:

1. What is your name?
2. What is your quest?
3. What is your favorite color?

FTFY

I haven’t seen evidence of “coordination.” I will be surprised if it results in findings of collusion and charges you describe. The proof will be in the pudding.

You make a good observation that, “Scandal can even happen around events that never actually transpired, or are completely routine events.”

Some of the revelations however unseemly or ethically dubious are not really shocking. Foreign countries try to influence our policy all the time with direct lobbying or through intermediaries, or through people who agree with them. Under a harsh light I think we’d find unclean hands in any administration and especially among hangers on.

An argument could be made for a permanent special counsel to keep an eye on these things in every administration.

I’ll be surprised if the GOP holds the House. Why are you so…pessimistic?

I’m sorry to be the one to tell you all this, and forgive for my emotional state right now, but I’ve just received word that President Donald Trump choked to death on the bone of a KFC drumstick. He mistakenly grabbed it thinking that it was a boneless wing and devoured it. His assistants and bodyguards just thought that he had fallen asleep, so they chose not to investigate until his face had turned an ugly puce color, like purple and orange mixed together. He was on life support for hours after initially being pronounced braindead, but there was some confusion because his braindead state didn’t appear at all different from his brain readings when healthy. As instructed according to his will, they gave him a Diet Coke IV. He was pronounced dead after life support failed due to a power-outage likely caused by recent budget cuts in healthcare. Vice President Pence is being sworn in as we speak.

R.I.P. Donald J. Trump

moviefreakedmind said:

TV’s Frink said:

Puggo - Jar Jar’s Yoda said:

TV’s Frink said:

Warbler said:

In general, I don’t like negative campaign ads. But when you have a nazi running against you, you have to.

Or a child molester…

Or a serial sexual assaulter…

Or a witch…

If in “witch” you mean like “wiccan”, I’ll take the wiccan any day.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christine_O'Donnell

Nothing wrong with devil-worship.

I like the guy, but worship?
I mean, it’s not like he’s not Joe Strummer…

Will no one think of the chicken‽

SilverWook said:

moviefreakedmind said:

I’m sorry to be the one to tell you all this, and forgive for my emotional state right now, but I’ve just received word that President Donald Trump choked to death on the bone of a KFC drumstick. He mistakenly grabbed it thinking that it was a boneless wing and devoured it. His assistants and bodyguards just thought that he had fallen asleep, so they chose not to investigate until his face had turned an ugly puce color, like purple and orange mixed together. He was on life support for hours after initially being pronounced braindead, but there was some confusion because his braindead state didn’t appear at all different from his brain readings when healthy. As instructed according to his will, they gave him a Diet Coke IV. He was pronounced dead after life support failed due to a power-outage likely caused by recent budget cuts in healthcare. Vice President Pence is being sworn in as we speak.

R.I.P. Donald J. Trump

I think this crosses the line a bit. It’s certainly in poor taste, even for this thread.

I’m going to be completely honest with you, and this may mean that there’s something wrong with me, but I seriously forgot that I posted that. My amnesia aside, I don’t think it’s in poor taste. It’s obviously silly and I didn’t say I wanted it to happen.

The mustache has returned!

The video from the self-driving Uber car was released.

The victim is visible about 1.5 seconds before the collision. Not a lot of time for a driver to react but I would expect a self-driving car to be able to detect far better than this. Doesn’t help that the person behind the wheel wasn’t watching the road and the car was a couple miles over the speed limit.

This article, “My Candid Conversations with Extremely Online Folks Who Suffer From Internet Broken Brain,” focuses on twitter, but I think has applicability to other online interactions.

A friend called me with an intervention of sorts last week. I was being an asshole online, he told me, hurting people’s feelings. I had lost the ability to distinguish between issues that truly deserve criticism on Twitter and things I should probably keep to myself. I was subtweeting the website that pays my bills, because I didn’t like the content they were posting. Even still, when I put it that way, it does sound kind of funny, but that’s the self-righteousness of Extremely Online Individuals steering the ship. What’s more important to me, being right online, or making a living?

*political hook: Trump Jr’s divorce is blamed partly on his tweeting.

Mrebo said:

I haven’t seen evidence of “coordination.” I will be surprised if it results in findings of collusion and charges you describe. The proof will be in the pudding.

During the campaign, there was the Russian agitprop that showed up on Sputnik, only to be withdrawn shortly afterward (presumably because it was easily proven false). But within hours that same agitprop still shows up in a Trump speech. That was the first and probably biggest of the pre-election evidence of coordination.

You make a good observation that, “Scandal can even happen around events that never actually transpired, or are completely routine events.”

Some of the revelations however unseemly or ethically dubious are not really shocking. Foreign countries try to influence our policy all the time with direct lobbying or through intermediaries, or through people who agree with them. Under a harsh light I think we’d find unclean hands in any administration and especially among hangers on.

Russia trying to influence our policy isn’t shocking at all, nor is the fact that they can get some traction now and again. It’s the end-to-end management of an entire campaign, ownership of a candidate, and the deep, aggressive, and unapologetic complicity of the Americans that’s new.

An argument could be made for a permanent special counsel to keep an eye on these things in every administration.

There is no doubt in my mind at all that a future sane government will revise the existing special counsel laws, as the current ones have now been clearly demonstrated as woefully inadequate. What form that would take is conjecture.

I’ll be surprised if the GOP holds the House. Why are you so…pessimistic?

Your standard accepted rule of thumb for the past few cycles (used by the likes of 538 and RCP) is that Democrats need to win by 8-9 percentage points to break even in the House. Some of the gerrymandering legal cases (such as PA) may reduce that hurdle, but that’s nevertheless a very high hurdle (it turned 2012’s slight Democratic victory at the polls into a crushing defeat in terms of allocated seats). I’m adding to that the impact of aggressive Russian interference, which last time added around 3 points to that hurdle due to Russians targeting close Congressional elections – that’s a little bit of a wildcard, though, because it could be worse due to the Feds not doing anything to stop it, or it could be better because people are more aware this time around. But basically my thinking right now is that Democrats need a complete and utter wipeout – a 12-point victory – to get a 50/50 flip-the-coin shot at the House. And right now they’re polling ahead in the generic ballot, but not even that much ahead, and the races always get closer when you have actual candidates and campaigns going on. An 11-point victory at the polls would be an historic rout under normal circumstances – but unless something changes, I see it as a formula for Republicans holding the House.

The Russia bit is a big wildcard, I admit. It’s also possible the Russians sit this one out or even sabotage the Republicans, in an attempt to sow discord and watch us eat ourselves. But frankly I think Trump is too important of an asset for them to throw away. I think they’ll try just as hard, if not harder, to keep him in place than they did to put him there.

Gerrymandering decisions are another wildcard–a few more states get fair districts and the Democratic hurdle becomes that much smaller. But I’m not thinking that will happen.

It’s the end-to-end management of an entire campaign, ownership of a candidate, and the deep, aggressive, and unapologetic complicity of the Americans that’s new.

What has been revealed after all this time has been underwhelming to say the least. I don’t buy the iceberg theory of the case where every little disconnected piece hints at something huge lurking below the surface and Mueller is really good at not tipping his hand.

The Russia and gerrymander worries provide cover for the horrible management of the DNC and other failures by the Democrats. Convenient. Still, I will be surprised if Republicans hold the House. If Dems do win, I guess you can blame the Russians 😉

Really not looking forward to John Bolton taking over as National Security Advisor.

TV’s Frink said:

Mrebo said:

It’s the end-to-end management of an entire campaign, ownership of a candidate, and the deep, aggressive, and unapologetic complicity of the Americans that’s new.

What has been revealed after all this time has been underwhelming to say the least. I don’t buy the iceberg theory of the case where every little disconnected piece hints at something huge lurking below the surface and Mueller is really good at not tipping his hand.

Bookmarking this post in case you’re wrong.

Or if I’m right.

The Russia and gerrymander worries provide cover for the horrible management of the DNC and other failures by the Democrats. Convenient.

Are you saying that they’re somehow responsible or taking advantage, or just coincidence?

Who, responsible for what?