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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 18

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I’m willing to guess, considering the RT score, that my prediction is too high.

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Excepting a few who really went low I think we all might have guessed a little high, my original 245 weekend prediction from end of the summer feels comical now.

“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV

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act on instinct said:

Excepting a few who really went low I think we all might have guessed a little high, my original 245 weekend prediction from end of the summer feels comical now.

Don’t get pessimistic yet. I agree it’s unlikely that the movie can reach those numbers, but don’t underestimate Disney’s marketing machine. They would lose money on advertising if it means they got people into seats to see this movie. The box office numbers matter, the profit, not so much.

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The opening weekend for this movie was never as important as its holiday legs. But the reviews will hurt both. It’s still going to make bank but it won’t be what they wanted.

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If WOM gets bad after this OW, having the most advantageous release date (and they do) won’t matter much if the legs are affected. They need repeat views and I’m unsure they’re going to get them. Nobody making any predictions was likely predicting with the idea that this was going to be the worst reviewed Star Wars since The Phantom Menace - and considering Phantom Menace’s current score got adjusted downward thanks to the 3D re-release giving critics a second bite at the apple, this would technically BE the worst reviewed Star Wars film otherwise.

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There’s reason to believe this isn’t actually the worst reviewed Star Wars movie (ROTJ and TESB at the time were potentially worse), but that doesn’t really matter. These days the only thing people care about is the score. And this one is a rotten icon (even though it’s on the verge of fresh). These days, that’s a turn off for a lot of moviegoers.

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So I have heard even with this final cut there was a last minute trim of roughly 20 minutes for the purposes of fitting in more showtimes (don’t quote me on this). I think that will help the legs over the holiday, especially for the young kids who are probably going to enjoy it no matter what and I’m guessing it will even be the Star Wars movie they want to rewatch most like many of us as kids did with ROTJ, just by how packed the movie is.

“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV

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 (Edited)

Box Office Mojo has IX at for making $59.1m internationally, so far:-

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2527338
 

The-Number has the same $59.1m figure internationally, and with $40 million for the US, so far:-

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Star-Wars-The-Rise-of-Skywalker-(2019)#tab=summary
 

A little patience goes a long way on this old-school Rebel base. If you are having issues finding what you are looking for, these will be of some help…

Welcome to the OriginalTrilogy.com | Introduce yourself in here | Useful info within : About : Help : Site Rules : Fan Project Rules : Announcements
How do I do this?’ on the OriginalTrilogy.com; some info & answers + FAQs - includes info on how to search for projects and threads on the OT•com

A Project Index for Star Wars Preservations (Harmy’s Despecialized & 4K77/80/83 etc) : A Project Index for Star Wars Fan Edits (adywan & Hal 9000 etc)

… and take your time to look around this site before posting - to get a feel for this place. Don’t just lazily make yet another thread asking for projects.

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DominicCobb said:

There’s reason to believe this isn’t actually the worst reviewed Star Wars movie (ROTJ and TESB at the time were potentially worse), but that doesn’t really matter. These days the only thing people care about is the score. And this one is a rotten icon (even though it’s on the verge of fresh). These days, that’s a turn off for a lot of moviegoers.

It’s like the PT. Except for TCW movie the weakest Star Wars films have generally been viewed as mixed bags. Yet somehow people just want to hear is it good or bad. The interesting thing is, that I found TROS fun and entertaining, but that doesn’t make it a good Star Wars film for me. While I disagree with RJ’s take, at least TLJ had a consistent vision, and a proper pay-off at the end with Luke’s sacrifice, hence it is the better film for me. TROS on the other hand is just so rushed, and sloppy in its execution.

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RT (and really the internet in general) has made everything into a binary “good or bad” these days, no in between exists anymore. It sucks, but what can you do.

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I guess Marey Suewalker isn’t such a hard pill to swallow so long as enough stylish nothingness is ejaculated everywhere.

Humanity still has a long way to go.

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DuracellEnergizer said:

I guess Marey Suewalker isn’t such a hard pill to swallow so long as enough stylish nothingness is ejaculated everywhere.

Humanity still has a long way to go.

Duracell, you missed it, but they explained why she was a level 50 force user in this one (no spoilers though), so she’s not a Mary Sue anymore and the movie is good.

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A B+ CinemaScore for a giant blockbuster on its opening weekend isn’t great, no. Again, the scheduling might save it from a severe drop, but the comparison points I’m seeing used quite a bit aren’t great ones: Batman v. Superman, Justice League, and Venom.

Venom is a positive comparison, really. But the problem there is Venom broke out the way it did thanks to overseas numbers, and so far The Rise of Skywalker isn’t doing very well overseas, and won’t have the sort of domestic/international split that Venom had. Star Wars even at its MOST popular was always closer to a 50/50 split than most huge earners (which run between 40/60-30/70 in a lot of cases)

If this opens at 195 and has TLJ’s multiplier, it ends its run at $546 mil domestic. But that CinemaScore (and whatever media narrative might evolve between now and Christmas) makes a 2.8x run a little more of a question.

If it has a multiplier closer to Justice League’s, we’re looking at this movie just barely crossing $500 mil, and finishing under Rogue One domestically.

EDIT: 90mil Friday (including Thursday previews). If it matches either Last Jedi OR Force Awakens’ weekend arcs - this movie isn’t making $200 mil OW.

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“Disney shall pay the price for their apparent lack of vision.”

Box Office: *force choke"

Peace is a lie
There is only passion…

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It seems like my opening weekend prediction is becoming true. Most sites are tracking a 190M opening, and it will of course make slightly more than that.

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I don’t disagree even a little bit but it’s a decent analysis of the film’s prospects.

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Projections for today are putting it around $48-50 mil. If it has a typical Saturday-to-Sunday drop, we’re now in $180-185mil range for the OW.

With that opening (especially if it’s closer to 180) we’re looking at an increased possibility it misses a billion worldwide.

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“Twice the pride double the fall”

Peace is a lie
There is only passion…