Sign In

act on instinct

User Group
Members
Join date
22-Sep-2018
Last activity
23-Aug-2019
Posts
40

Post History

Post
#1293694
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

I think that’s the heart of it, if people feel like they’ve seen it before they could grow apathetic. Also comes down to variety, how many good space adventures came out around the time of OT? Now how many kids would rather watch Guardians of the Galaxy? It’s definitely not over for Star Wars, the platform it holds hasn’t been completely usurped, but Lucasfilm won’t be able to keep it resting on their laurels. I like the Bond example because it’s undergone many changes to modernize and still play to what fans are after.

Post
#1293613
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

act on instinct said:

DominicCobb said:
Didn’t say anyone was, I just mean there’s a lot of different aspects to any given film that contributes to the whole, and I think often people unfairly dismiss the whole just because of what is, in my personal opinion, a relatively minor aspect (repeated plot points).

I just don’t think that’s what anyone means when discussing plot points, that’s why I brought up Steve Yedlin to say even haters will distinguish their distaste for a story as separate from the other components of film making that make up a movie, the story is the discussion, and the piece people are taking issue with. I doubt there would be much if any animosity against RJ if he was only director.

There’s more to a film than the story sure, but most importantly to my point there’s also more to a story than plot beats.

To be fair I asked for some examples earlier on the story.

DominicCobb said:

And I wish to god we could put to end the binary thinking of “similar=bad/not creative.” Ironically not a very creative critique if you ask me.

I think if you’re finding similarities in the critiques it speaks to their authenticity, something just resonates with many fans as TFA treading too much old ground, not just something to dismiss. There is a balance and too new wouldn’t feel like Star Wars to those same people, they gave us the movie we wanted at the time, but after time has passed I’m not so sure they struck the balance. Like Dre’s Under Pressure analogy, I don’t think you can just separate Starkiller from the whole, you can appreciate the other parts, I appreciate things about the prequels, but I have to acknowledge its failings or I’d be kidding myself, even if I find the good parts personally worth it.

RogueLeader said:

EDIT: I’m gonna leave this up but I keep forgetting this is the box office predictions thread! Sorry Dre.

It’s probably better to keep with the flow of traffic unless we divert to a new thread, unfortunately it’s still too early to speculate much further about box office, anyone’s wild guess.

Post
#1293566
Topic
Episode VIII : The Last Jedi - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

Youtube definitely hasn’t even seen the full results of the impact their algorithms have for better and for worse. I’m disappointed the community pushes for this quantity over quality, most of these people have maybe a few good points or at least their own perspectives but they have to keep putting out videos if it’s going to net them regular income. Youtube has become a daily commentary community and rambling rabble rousers is the consequence.

This is as good a time as any to say this place is like a strange oasis of older internet discourse, from a more civilized age…

Post
#1293553
Topic
The Prequel Radical Redux Ideas Thread
Time

Augie Ben-Doggie said:

act on instinct said:

snooker said:

Yeah tbh I have a shot in mind it’s just i really freaking hate rotoscoping aaaa

Had to rotoscope 1 frame of the version I posted and it was still the most tedious step. I’ve had dreams of scoping an AotC Anakin into TPM cockpits to retain some of that stuff and skirt around kid Annie…but only so much can be done.

If someone ever figures out a way to do the very cockpit thing you just mentioned, scope shots of AoTC Anakin into a training montage narrated with dialogue from Qui-Gon Jinn as well as into Qui-Gon’s funeral scene, I think I have a way of putting a better story together for TPM that cuts out child Anakin completely.

A future in the distance where deepfakes allow us to insert Hayden reshoots of our own!

Post
#1293546
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:
Didn’t say anyone was, I just mean there’s a lot of different aspects to any given film that contributes to the whole, and I think often people unfairly dismiss the whole just because of what is, in my personal opinion, a relatively minor aspect (repeated plot points).

I just don’t think that’s what anyone means when discussing plot points, that’s why I brought up Steve Yedlin to say even haters will distinguish their distaste for a story as separate from the other components of film making that make up a movie, the story is the discussion, and the piece people are taking issue with. I doubt there would be much if any animosity against RJ if he was only director.

Also going to push back on the no explanation Lucas method. I do think this was the idea but the truth is while ANH does drop you in the middle of a fantasy world it is packed with exposition, not everything but just enough to know who the characters are and what motivates them along with what’s at stake. ST been feeling more like the Kylo show and our new heroes are blank slates to be filled in later.

Post
#1293535
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

In my mind there’s a lot more to a movie than plot points and lore. The movie is an experience in and of itself, separate from its place in the saga as well as a part of it - and it’s a hell of a lot of fun.

I’m not really talking about lore, though world building is appreciated, to me TFA feels like they decided not to deal with almost any exposition for the sake of keeping the ride moving, lot of flash and personality sure,
but when it feels too familiar that excitement for me burns out faster. Makes me want to hook into the new and the details of the new are “a story for another time”.

And I don’t think anyone is deriding the production design or the John Williams score, same way that TLJ haters will still admit to the cinematic quality and fantastic work of Steve Yedlin.

Post
#1293461
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:
And so, to my point, I think there is a lot to TFA itself beyond what mysteries it sets up (if any), and I think people too easily forget that. Now, if you don’t care for what it offers beyond the “mysteries and fan service,” fair enough, but that’s not all that’s there.

I really don’t mean to be a jerk about this but could you articulate some examples? TFA had rathtars which is a little different, this thing of abandoned fallen star destroyers to be scavenged that’s new, I wish it were explored more but it’s unique to this trilogy, but sticking just to TFA I’m not sure what else isn’t from the past that also isn’t a mystery, I’m racking my brain a little trying to think of more honestly.

Post
#1293422
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

I knew I’d get caught citing from an anecdote, I don’t want to do that too much because we’ll get lost in the weeds, will say those I know that saw it twice also don’t regularly do that, and I understand not liking it the first time but later it grows on you that’s common. But I don’t think I’m just regurgitating memes that’s a little unfair, the mystery box thing is how JJ writes and he has spoken publicly about that, and for the first film I don’t even mind that, it isn’t like the case of ANH when they didn’t already know they’d have 2 more bites at the apple. I think the movie is a fun ride, the performances from the new characters are very endearing, but as far as what they’re doing there’s not much detail, all pretty boilerplate and I agree with others saying it really would have helped to have just those deleted scenes to establish the universe in more of its own specific context, I’m expecting TRoS to be flashback city.

Post
#1293415
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

Yes, “similar” and “the same” are two different things. I think it’s safe to assume on this site we know ANH pretty well, so I’m sure we all were able to pick up on most if not all the similarities on our first viewing of TFA. No need to insult anyone’s intelligence either way by trying to make it out to be something it’s not, we all know what the fact of the matter is (and, at this point, should know that it was obviously intentional). So the debate should not be arguing back and forth about what the similarities are and how many there are, but rather whether or not they work in the film’s favor or are detrimental to it.

Personally, I like to take a more reasoned approach. I get why people don’t like TFA because it’s “too similar,” but I find often people don’t go beyond that, they just think similar=bad, therefore TFA=bad (I shouldn’t have to say this, but obviously not everyone is like this). That is frustrating thing to see, especially when this is a franchise that has always been built off preexisting parts, and has been including echoes of other films within this franchise for years. For me, you can’t take a binary look at it. For instance, the worst part of TFA (in my opinion) is the inclusion of Starkiller Base, not simply because it is a repeat of the Death Star, but because it is only really in the film to repeat the Death Star, and thus feels inorganic to the rest of the story - whereas other repeated elements fit far better and serve a more justifiable purpose in this narrative and actually work in the film’s favor.

It’s hard to tow the line, I don’t think this problem is exclusive to Star Wars either. There’s a lot to say just about the changes within the industry, the critics, and the fans, which are locked in a three-way relationship as long as studios are working with these known properties. That is not the same as it was 10 years ago. Lot of money on the line and lot of wildly different expectations, who to please?

I think “TFA is the same” reaction comes from JJ and all more or less confirming it was their intention to reboot the series, which for many seemed appropriate. Reliving ANH was a big part of the fun factor watching TFA. JJ’s big problem ultimately was those mystery boxes, makes it hard to rewatch and most people I know saw it twice and most enjoyed it less the second time, because underneath the fan service TFA doesn’t set up anything but more mystery boxes, so it feels like a bridge movie to TLJ. It wasn’t the rabid internet fanbase that made it all about their theories, JJ and co. served the ball. It seems that Disney is unsure themselves whether they should zig or zag, how do you give the audience the thing they want but don’t already have? You have to give them what they didn’t know they wanted. So I can respect RJ’s notion that to continue things would need to change, but it’s been a bumpy ride to say the least.

Post
#1293390
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

I agree, it’s a mischaracterization, nobody here has mentioned Star Wars Resistance or Forces of Destiny or the new games in regards to the sequels, there is an unspoken separation from the more kitschy material and the episodes. The prequels make a better point because they were main episodes and different from the Star Wars OT fans wanted, even doing things with old characters that many fans disliked (whiny kid Anakin, Yoda doing backflips with a tiny lightsaber). But the prequels DID damage the brand’s reputation and the backlash was enough to be one of the reasons for a change in management. It’s not so much the end of Star Wars overall, the fate of more movies on the other hand…

Also we may need more threads, this discussion has a lot of moving parts all worth talking about but it’s starting to get disorganized.

Post
#1293316
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Well that’s why I gave to the optimist side for the good, the ugly is more of a joke than a prediction. By modest exit I would say par for the course in its domain, lower side of average with the rest of the Star Wars releases. I don’t think TRoS should need to be vindicated/validated through how it competes against other franchises, but if the finale of the saga fails to bring in as many that even saw TLJ I think that would be more of a fizzle than a bang, nothing to speak of the quality of the product, but proof of waning relevance.

Post
#1293306
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Rodney-2187 said:

Is everyone pretty much thinking the same thing then? ($700,000,000 domestic/$1.4 worldwide) I haven’t seen too many predictions far outside of those numbers.

It may have a weak open but I’d say within that range is the safe bet, there’s reasons less and more people will go and I expect that should even out to at least 1.2 billion worldwide. After the marketing blitz especially if that 700 mark can’t be reached domestically, considering it’s the final chapter that would indicate a negative impact for me. Ending the saga on a modest exit, second place to the real cultural main event which turned out to be Avengers. And honestly looking at those Endgame numbers is not encouraging, I did not see Endgame but it was an undeniable wave, TFA was like that too, also rippled into RO which I doubt would have been as big of a deal itself if it wasn’t the first of the anthology movies just coming off TFA, fans were thirsting for more, TLJ numbers are a bit more in line. TRoS being the grand finale will really be the angle that will bring the rest out of the woodwork and at the very least hit their business as usual everything is fine nothing is broken number.

in short,
The Good - $850,000,000/$2.2
The Bad - $695,000,000/$1.1
The Ugly - $525,000,000/$974,117,000

Post
#1293294
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

I would pin the similarities more on style than getting into all these story beats, Jakku establishes a world very similar to Tatooine and that’s putting it lightly. Not to mention the cantina filled with alien mercenaries, even Starkiller had a trench for X-wings to fly through just because.

OutboundFlight said:

ANH is about stopping the Death Star. TFA is NOT about stopping Starkiller. TFA is about finding Luke Skywalker. We know this thanks to each episode’s crawls.

They do blow up Starkiller by the end much like the Death Star at the end of ANH, which also has a similar mission, find the old Jedi who can help in Obi-Wan Kenobi, down to being the same task ordered by the same character. The pacing of events might diverge but calling it totally different feels like willful ignorance.

I always think about this clip from the making of Phantom Menace https://youtu.be/hxTIlu4ldbg and the idea that, being of a different time period before the war, the artisans were still designing the ships, before war and the empire had reduced the team to a rag-tag band of rebels with whatever junked up parts they could use. For the sequels it’s just X-wings and ties again, something you may not immediately think about as wrong but overall limits the world building, hoping IX will understand they need a bit more in scope of their own.

Post
#1293271
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Rodney-2187 said:

So what are everyone’s box office predictions for TRoS? I’m keeping mine at $700,000,000 domestic and $1,400,000,000 worldwide for now, but I fully expect to revise that upward depending on the hype.

Here is a list of the Star Wars movies domestic box office adjusted for inflation with Endgame thrown in just for fun. The numbers correspond to where they rank on the all-time domestic adjusted list.

Great stuff! Appreciated including Endgame numbers, gives perspective. On that note I think in addition box office for the DC universe movies should be added into the mix.

None of these are adjusted for inflation, all my numbers are from total worldwide gross:

Man of Steel - $668,045,518
Batman v Superman - $873,634,919
Suicide Squad - $746,846,894
Wonder Woman - $821,847,012
Justice League - $657,924,295
Aquaman - $1,148,061,807

Obviously just limited to domestic would put DC to shame against Star Wars, though with the poor numbers in China that’s a two way street. Reflecting on this I would say even if a large consensus of the people and critics don’t like what you’re doing, these brand name mega movies should still be able to hold water and bring in expected money (marketing costs and other technical number crunching aside), very few real flops and the billion mark for global is expected now.

For TRoS to prove itself I agree with the 700mil domestic, what I expect is 1.3b worldwide but on the more cynical side total domestic below 550 would be the embarrassment, it should at least hit a billion globally despite any bad faith, nothing like Solo’s numbers.

The part where it all burns to the ground could be the next cycle of trilogies, a risk I think they’d rather not take and just move it all to streaming which explains why even their highest profile anthology story everyone was begging for is now becoming a show instead of a movie. Disney is savvy about these things, they want to preserve their investment. Declining numbers is a way worse look than just not giving away your numbers and boasting about the success of your exclusive content streaming platform and new cash-flow of subscriber money.

Post
#1293265
Topic
The Prequel Radical Redux Ideas Thread
Time

snooker said:

Yeah tbh I have a shot in mind it’s just i really freaking hate rotoscoping aaaa

Had to rotoscope 1 frame of the version I posted and it was still the most tedious step. I’ve had dreams of scoping an AotC Anakin into TPM cockpits to retain some of that stuff and skirt around kid Annie…but only so much can be done.

Post
#1293151
Topic
The Prequel Radical Redux Ideas Thread
Time

Much improved! I made my own slight (and sloppy) alteration as a suggestion for reordering shots to direct the kinetic energy, https://streamable.com/9lznz

Now it goes from Padme to the threat from screen right to Anakin looking screen right and immediately diving off screen right and following the action through. Felt like reversing the Obi reaction while I was at it too since his reaction time in response to Anakin leaping through the window felt a little sluggish for a Jedi. Thoughts?

Post
#1293062
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

I don’t see why the marketing couldn’t be a trick to be subverted later when the name of the game with these episodes has been ultimate secrecy and surprise, Lucasfilm could pull the rug out from under people if they wanted. There are ancient interviews out there before the idea of 9 became so accepted where Star Wars could be up to 12 parts in total. With the standalone entries going to streaming I think this is one of the few moves left to genuinely surprise anyone when it comes to the episodes while keeping the ball up in the theatrical department. I also don’t buy even the RJ and DnD trilogies (which I predict will merge if they don’t fizzle out) as being so separated from the rest of the saga, it just doesn’t make sense and could go down in flames with audiences who don’t have the patience or the interest in trying to endear themselves to totally new sets of characters going on adventures in random disconnected time periods.

Anyway that’s my case, I agree that realistically they wouldn’t go there, maybe 0.005% chance, but I would sure consider it if I were in their position and bite the bullet on any ego indulgence and just say it’s the last hurrah before anyone notices the last minute scramble to figure out how to end this story. It’s bad enough we really haven’t had the proper time with the characters, hollow mysteries have substituted for story and it’s not a good look when you’re two acts deep and your main character’s defining arc is “Who am I? Why am I here?”. ST is really mostly Kylo if we’re talking about a set up narrative we can follow and respond to, the heroes have participated but those moments where we learn about them have been brushed to the side for later and now I don’t know how 3 hours will be enough to wrap up what has barely been established.

Post
#1293039
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

What are the chances with all that needs to happen in TROS they pull a Harry Potter and decide to split the final chapter as a surprise finale, rounding the saga out to 10 episodes? I don’t think the odds are high on this one and I have no basis for the suspicion but the more I think about it the less crazy it seems, thoughts?

Post
#1292679
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

The election year microcosm is not lost on anyone else here I hope? It’s anybody’s guess as to how bad things really are, so many variables while there’s a market paradigm shift to streaming at the same time. We will never know what might have been, or which and how many of these choices made under new management were responsible. I agree the intensity of the dogfights have been somewhat cherry picked overblown, but also might be indicators to the tip of an iceberg. Will IX flop? Not a chance, but I’m not so sure for the future of Star Wars universe movies…

Post
#1291251
Topic
The Empire Strikes Back bluray regrade
Time

DrDre said:

Following a request from Hal 9000, I decided to try and create some scene by scene LUTs to get the TESB bluray to look half descent, using the 1997 SE telecine as the basis, while adding a few touches of my own. I will make these LUTs freely available, as he’s not the first member to make this request.

Here’s the first set of frames.

Bluray:

Bluray regraded:

Comparison:

http://www.framecompare.com/image-compare/screenshotcomparison/1E21NNNU

LUT:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qYfl68kDNGmoSIBhMmrM3UCZCr6hI6tT/view?usp=sharing

my take on this

Post
#1290996
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

RogueLeader said:

act on instinct said:

My prediction of how the audience might view this in hindsight is that TFA and TLJ will feel like an overextended prologue while TROS will be this mega movie, the one you skip to (RotS anyone?), backed into a corner and ultimately too bloated to gracefully end the ride smoothly, if even intact.

Sounds like it will fit right into the saga then!

Such are the perils of flying by the seat of your pants!

Post
#1290941
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

All these debates about consistency within character and lore really shows how empty the discussion is when it comes to the current story going on. Any mysteries are too mysterious they’re virtually absent until we get to hear about them.

If these were adaptations of books I think the sequels would be comparable to The Hobbit movies, rushed and padded, a trilogy for the sake of it. There was no question the new movies would be a trilogy before it even started but so far there just isn’t much information to grab a hold of, lot of meandering more in line with a 10 year build up similar to the Marvel formula. Now IX feels like it will itself be a soft reboot of this new trilogy, this time packed with all the story we were supposed to be following on top of its own developments, all while trying to send up the whole and conclude the entire Skywalker saga. My prediction of how the audience might view this in hindsight is that TFA and TLJ will feel like an overextended prologue while TROS will be this mega movie, the one you skip to (RotS anyone?), backed into a corner and ultimately too bloated to gracefully end the ride smoothly, if even intact.