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DrDre

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16-Mar-2015
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Post
#1292729
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

This is how you do an objective scientific analysis. Numbers don’t lie, haha.

Post
#1292714
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Mavimao said:

Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:

1st film: record breaking numbers

2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

And for the ST?

TFA: Record breaking numbers

TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

Some people argue:

TFA: Record breaking numbers

RO: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TLJ: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

TROS: ??

The road to final installment of the ST has been quite different from the OT and PT. Many people have argued, that TLJ feels more like the end of a trilogy than a middle act. Given the waning interest in Star Wars in general, my guess is, that TROS will end up near RO levels, which was also a December release. The fact that TROS is the conclusion to the Skywalker saga might draw in more people, but given that interest is at an all time low, I think TROS just breaking the $1B mark is not at all an unlikely scenario.

Post
#1292709
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Another interesting comparison is how interest worldwide in the Star Wars franchise in general compares to other big franchises, like Harry Potter and the MCU:

This comparison shows while interest in Star Wars was at an all time high in 2015, interest has slumped considerably since the release of TLJ, and currently is at an all time low. Both the Harry Potter franchise and the MCU garner significantly more interest today with the MCU getting a significant boost in the last few years, and the Harry Potter franchise sustaining interest despite the lackluster reception to the latest Fantastic Beasts entry.

The waning interest in Star Wars also explains the disappointing Star Wars toy sales:

Hasbro Star Wars revenue for 2016 was about $333 million, in 2017 it was about $243 million and in 2018 it was about $161 million. Some have argued in the past that toy sales in general have been on the decline, but this graph proves that argument doesn’t hold, since the interest in Marvel/Avengers toys has seen a healthy increase, and since 2018 consistently surpass interest in Star Wars toys by a wide margin:

Finally this graph shows the strong relationship between the cumulative yearly interest in Star Wars in general as measured on google trends, and Star Wars toy sales:

The cumulative interest for this year stands at 56, which translates roughly to toy sales of approx. $100M, a number that might double by the end of the year, but still amounts to an over 50% drop compared to the periods around the releases of ROTS, then the conclusion of the Skywalker saga, and TFA.

On the basis of these graphs, I would conclude that Star Wars as a brand is clearly on the decline, and whatever strategy was chosen by Disney and Lucasfilm hasn’t worked out for them, whilst the strategy of the MCU has been extremely successful thusfar.

Post
#1292707
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

RogueLeader said:

Cool! Maybe a comparison with Clone Wars since it is coming back, and Resistance and Rebels are the only other Star Wars shows I can think of. There’s been pretty much no marketing for it so I doubt it will be more than a blip, but I think the cool think about these charts will be to see how they fluctuate overtime.

Here’s a comparison between the interest in the various Star Wars TV shows in the US:

The Clone Wars has seen the most interest by far, and also has the most interest right now. Rebels comes in second, but interest has rapidly decreased once the final season was finished. Resistance and The Mandalorian only get a small fraction of the interest seen for the older TV series, although interest in The Mandalorian will likely increase around November when the first season starts. Star Wars Resistance is the bottom of the barrel though, and it’s no wonder it’s been cancelled after the second season.

Post
#1292694
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

The fact of the matter is, the complaining from TLJ-haters about being painted with a broad brush as something they’re not mostly comes across as silly and whiny. Most of complaints in regards to people calling everyone who criticized the movie “man baby” or “misogynist” are grossly overstated, considering there’s practically no one actually doing that, and these people are just latching on to legitimate critiques of people who actually are being man babies and misogynist, and falsely claiming they’re being lumped in with them (for reasons beyond me, maybe persecution complex or they don’t want to engage with the fact that there are people who are actually like that out there, who might share some opinions on a movie with them). Ultimately, posts like this^ just come across a little tinfoil hat-y. ‘The whole fandom is divided and out to get me, and Lucasfilm is complicit.’ It’s just silly man, I don’t know how else to describe it.

That’s why I call it imaginary. That’s what it feels like, a made up controversy. Obviously there are people out there being annoying on either side. But to the extent that it’s this extensive, disastrous, oppressive ‘climate’… not feeling it personally.

Sorry, but it’s easy for you to claim it’s overstated and imaginary being on the other side. You don’t have to endure all the name calling, and have your motives continually questioned. You yourself accused me of hating the ST two days ago, only to backtrack once I confronted you with it, and yesterday again questioned my motives for doing a little research, implying I must want TROS to fail. Earlier in the week another user here stated, since he or she feels Rey is a perfectly good character, the motives of those criticizing Rey’s character are suspect by default. Even if we’re not open misogynists, and racists, we’re likely closet misogynists, and racists. It’s this sort of atmosphere that contributes to the climate I’m talking about. It’s not just obnoxious fans doing it, it’s regular reasonable people that help sustain it, looking to validate their opinions. Then there’s the media. There have literally been dozens of articles, which boil down to “I’m sure there are some fans with legitimate complaints about the movie, but most of them are toxic”, or the articles that try to do amateur psychology, and explain why some fans dislike the movie, which in the best case scenario can be summarized, that we didn’t get what we want, and want things to stay the same, and in the worst case scenario accuse us of misogyny, racism, and trolling. Then there’s the so called research allegedly showing fans mostly criticized TLJ out of political motives, or show we largely consist of Russian bots, research that was either biased, or taken out of context by the media to produce another clickbait article, and spin the narrative (and retweeted by RJ by the way, who somewhat understandably wants to believe the vast majority of fans like his movie). This has been the climate since TLJ’s release, sparked by a small group of toxic fans, that started harrassing people, and sustained by fans and the media holding on to the belief that the division amounts to little more than a vocal minority.

To recapitulate according to many fans, and the media, I’m a hater bent on the destruction of Disney Star Wars, whereas in reality I still like most Disney Star Wars. I liked TFA upon release, and still do mostly, even if I feel it’s too derivative, and that it’s a missed opportunity to just hit the reset button. I like RO, which I feel is the best Disney movie to date, even if it’s too heavy on the fan service, and the characters could use more development. I dislike TLJ overall for reasons, which have been discussed ad nauseum, but still feel there are good and even great elements to it, like the Rey/Luke/Kylo dynamic, which is up there with the best the franchise has to offer. I thought Solo was an oke movie, but largely forgettable. Finally, I’m cautiously optimistic about TROS, and hope it will be a good movie, that will satisfy most fans. That is my reality, and the reality of the vast majority of critical fans I engage with. We are critical of some of the choices made, and question some of the motives behind it, but are generally still hopeful that the franchise has a bright future ahead.

In any case, we are probably not going to agree on this, so let’s get back on topic.

Post
#1292658
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

Post
#1292654
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

Post
#1292652
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Mocata said:

Well I didn’t a box office disappointment that “only” makes 700mil, meant a real box office bomb which, like Solo, completely fails to break even. Not every Disney project is a billion dollar release and some are only average success stories. But that being said I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached it here. The online climate is hard to discern, and how far it reaches into the real world of casual viewers is impossible to measure.

Well, that’s exactly what the article is about. It is possible to measure just that with some degree of certaintly through google searches, which include the casual viewers.

Post
#1292650
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

Post
#1292649
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

Mocata said:

It’s an event movie, it’s a holiday release, I don’t see them struggling. Nothing’s impossible but I see the failure of Solo as something caused by timing and marketing rather than SW as a brand.

A brand which lately has been struggling to reach a new generation of fans, whilst alienating a fraction of the previous generations of fans:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

TROS will likely make a profit, but the question is whether it will break the $1B mark. If not it will be seen a failure nonetheless.

Post
#1292642
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

DominicCobb said:

Personally I can’t get past the fact that RO has the highest interest by far, yet lower BO than TFA and TLJ (and even on cumulative interest it’s still quite a bit higher, as is ROTS, over TLJ, despite the ultimate BO performance). Point being, it seems like a rather imprecise science, especially considering there isn’t the full picture for TROS yet.

RO has the highest peak interest, but I added the cumulative interest for a reason, since it provides an average over time, which is a more accurate measure. The relationship between the measured interest and box office has an accuracy of 70%, meaning that there obviously is a measure of uncertainly, but it is a strong relationship, implying a significant drop in interest more likely than not will result in lower box office returns.

And again, I have to ask, who cares exactly? Why bend over backwards to make a prediction when we’ll literally know how it’ll shape up in a few short months? Despite your protestations, it’s hard not to think you want TROS to fail.

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Post
#1292624
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

yotsuya said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.

Not meant as an outburst. Figured you might take issue with some of my word choices but I was writing quickly and they did well as shorthand for - if not your feelings specifically - the feelings of many who talk about similar concerns on the internet. No need to take things personally, it was meant as a general comment.

As for the franchise waning, it’s a fact only so far as it’s naturally coming down from the all time high (77 excluded) of the TFA revival. Anything beyond that is up for debate - like any franchise Star Wars has always had its ups and downs. When the dust settles we’ll see if this is just a natural dip in between Episodes or something more. Either way it shouldn’t affect our view of the content itself.

Star Wars fever ran high from 77 to 80. It kept going from 80 to 83. After 83 it fizzled within 2 years. I saw the same with the PT. The energy was high, toys everywhere, then ROTS came out and poof… everything dropped off.

So I expect that after TROS that things are going to drop off faster. It isn’t a matter of the love of Star Wars waning, it is just that everyone knows the trilogy is over.

And I really can’t align the stats DrDre is quoting to the stats that currently, this far out, that the TROS teaser has 75% of the views of the TFA trailer. That is a huge number of views at this point compared to a teaser trailer that came out 4 years ago. To me that indicates that something about the stats DrDre is quoting are incomplete and aren’t giving us the whole picture.

Well, it could mean the trailer hasn’t been able to create enough interest in the film, and while people were curious about the teaser trailer, interest in the film has waned following the release of the teaser. It could mean interest will increase in the near future, once the marketing campaign is at full throttle. The picture isn’t complete, but it will become more clear as we approach the release date.

Post
#1292622
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

yotsuya said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.

Not meant as an outburst. Figured you might take issue with some of my word choices but I was writing quickly and they did well as shorthand for - if not your feelings specifically - the feelings of many who talk about similar concerns on the internet. No need to take things personally, it was meant as a general comment.

As for the franchise waning, it’s a fact only so far as it’s naturally coming down from the all time high (77 excluded) of the TFA revival. Anything beyond that is up for debate - like any franchise Star Wars has always had its ups and downs. When the dust settles we’ll see if this is just a natural dip in between Episodes or something more. Either way it shouldn’t affect our view of the content itself.

Star Wars fever ran high from 77 to 80. It kept going from 80 to 83. After 83 it fizzled within 2 years. I saw the same with the PT. The energy was high, toys everywhere, then ROTS came out and poof… everything dropped off.

So I expect that after TROS that things are going to drop off faster. It isn’t a matter of the love of Star Wars waning, it is just that everyone knows the trilogy is over.

And I really can’t align the stats DrDre is quoting to the stats that currently, this far out, that the TROS teaser has 75% of the views of the TFA trailer. That is a huge number of views at this point compared to a teaser trailer that came out 4 years ago. To me that indicates that something about the stats DrDre is quoting are incomplete and aren’t giving us the whole picture.

There’s a separate thread for this subject:

https://originaltrilogy.com/topic/The-Rise-of-Skywalker-box-office-results-predictions-and-expectations/id/69130

Post
#1292595
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

RogueLeader said:

I know it is a different medium, but I think it would be interesting to see something similar for The Mandalorian, since it is coming out in October.

I will have a look if I can make a similar comparison, and see how interest compares to popular series in the recent past, and the other Star Wars tv series.

Post
#1292588
Topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Time

I found an interesting article that shows the strong relation between google searches (and trailer searches), and the box office success of blockbusters:

https://tubularinsights.com/do-youtube-movie-trailer-searches-correlate-to-box-office/

The full research paper:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://ssl.gstatic.com/think/docs/quantifying-movie-magic_research-studies.pdf&chrome=true

In light of this paper I decided to do my own little analysis with google trends to see how TROS stacks up to previous Star Wars releases, and it’s not looking good for the upcoming film. I restricted myself to google searches in the US that start a year before the release date up till six months after the release date, and looked at the interest and the cumulative interest over that time frame. Here’s the outcome:

The reference point here is RO which has the highest peak interest, which is set at 100. As can be seen the cumulative interest for TFA has been the highest of all the films considered here, and the cumulative interest for Solo over the entire 18 month period has been the lowest. However, looking at the cumulative curve for episode IX/TROS after 7 months the overall interest is the lowest of all films considered including the box office flop Solo. It also seems interest in Star Wars has been on a steady decline in general since TFA’s release. There’s still some time to go before TROS will be released, so things might change, and it will be interesting to follow its progress, but it’s safe to conclude that interest for a Star Wars film four months prior to release has never been so low, and so I think the powers that be should be concerned, about what the future will hold in box office terms.

I will be updating these figures over the next few months, and will also be keeping up on the interest generated by Star Wars in general.

Post
#1292583
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

oojason said:

John Williams’ brother, Don: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker Score Will Include ‘Every Theme That You Ever Heard’ (from IGN)

(with an inference that Episode IX runs for 135 minutes…)

 

It has been a while since I have heard Jar Jar’s theme 😉
 

Actually the scores of movies in general and Star Wars specifically are shorter than the actual runtime of the film. Having seen ANH and TESB with an orchestra, one of the first things I noticed is, that there are a number of scenes in both films, that don’t have any music at all. For example the trash compactor scene doesn’t have any score. So, if the score for TROS runs 135 min, we can expect TROS to have a runtime closer to 3 hrs.

Post
#1292555
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

RogueLeader said:

Yeah I think they’re fair points of discussion, but I think a lot of people who dislike the new movies try to use numerical data as evidence to prove that they’re objectively bad and justify their own opinion. So it hard to determine what discussion is sincere or what is in bad faith.

This is not just an issue for those that dislike the films, or are critical of the more recent movies. People in general try to justify their own opinions, whether it’s positive or negative. However, I think in the end no matter how good or bad you feel the movies are, this type of division in the fanbase is not benificial for the future of the franchise.

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#1292548
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

SilverWook said:

If interest is waning that’s not inherently the fault of the franchise itself. There’s a lot more stuff competing for eyeballs these days, and not just superhero movies. I feel like the first Guardians Of The Galaxy movie actually stole a little bit of thunder from Star Wars as we hadn’t had a honest to goodness space opera flick in several years at that point.

I agree multiple factors come into play, and competition is a pretty big one, but at the same time the momentum created by TFA and RO seems to have been lost, and it can’t be denied there’s a lot of turmoil in the fanbase. There’s been a lot of debate on whether the classic characters have been effectively used in the ST with 2 out of the big 3 being killed before the end of the second movie. How much of a factor have the classic characters, and the actors portraying them been in the success of Disney’s earliest releases, and how is their absence going to affect future interest in the franchise? What is Star Wars without Luke, Han, Leia, Chewie, Lando, R2-D2, C-3PO, Obi-Wan Kenobi, Yoda, and Darth Vader? The message of the ST thusfar has been clear (and rumors have been circling around as to why): out with the old, in with the new. Was that a good choice on the part of Disney? Galaxy’s Edge is a great example, which focusses completely on the ST era, and seems to be heading towards a failure.

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#1292536
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.

Post
#1292532
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches. As such it is not a waste of time, any more than it is a waste of time to predict the weather, a prediction which in both cases tends to be more often right than wrong.

Post
#1292490
Topic
Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * <strong><em>SPOILER THREAD</em></strong> *
Time

yotsuya said:

Valheru_84 said:

If the leak in this article has any validity then it sounds like TROS will be the third ST movie to continue with the soft reboot / remake in repeating and reusing many plot points and elements from the OT, in particular ROTJ for what this article talks about which is essentially ANOTHER Death Star but as a ship this time (still thats going on four! Or FIVE if you’re just talking about the use of “Death Star tech”) that can at the least take out whole continents or possibly even up to whole planets again as it reportedly has the same power level of the first DS.

Apparently it even has a trench in its design for what would be the third trench run now, though to be mimicking ROTJ they would need to fly into the ship in order to destroy it.

https://movieweb.com/rise-of-skywalker-onager-star-destroyer-star-wars/

Well, if you really look at it, when you consider when the first Death Star was finished, it makes sense that that type of weapon can be scaled down and mounted on a ship. It makes a lot more sense than Starkiller base. Something tells me that that one is one of the pieces that came from Lucas. Just the sort of thing he would do.

But while we are talking about repeating elements, the PT had a fair share of repeating as well. It shared a lot of plot points with the OT. A lot.

And when you think about it, the hero of these films (Anakin, Luke, Rey) has yet to personally defeat the evil. Anakin did throw Palpatine over the railing, but during Luke’s time as hero. So Rey having a bigger part in Palpatine’s downfall would be an awesome way to round things out. And maybe we might see a redeemed Ben Solo live to see the end. Just hopeful guessing there.

And when it comes to graphs with Google, they are only as good as the data. If, as I am guessing, many people find the trailers via other means (such as the many social media venues) then they don’t need to use a search engine to find it. The fact that the views for the TROS teaser are at 75% of the views of TLJ indicates that people are finding the trailer other ways. So don’t take too much stock on one statistic. It might not be very accurate depending on the current links to things on the internet.

The trailers is only a small part of the article. The article mainly focusses on google search queries on movies, and how that correlates with box office results, a relationship that has been established with scientific methods. Now, you and others have argued people access information via other paths, but that isn’t relevant in light of the following:

Google Trends shows the relative popularity of a search query. In other words, relative popularity is the ratio of a query’s search volume to the sum of the search volumes of all possible queries.

In other words even if other social media venues take a significant share of the action, it wouldn’t affect the relative popularity of search queries, unless you believe only Star Wars fans seek out other paths, which doesn’t seem a very realistic premise. The fact is that a recent movie like Endgame showed a significant increase in interest on google trends compared to previous MCU entries, and subsequently became the financially most successful MCU release thusfar, highlights the validity of the relationship that has been established by the authors of the article.

Post
#1292316
Topic
Best Explanation Of Mary Sue Issue
Time

RogueLeader said:

I definitely don’t feel that your criticisms are coming from a bad place, Dre. My replies yesterday were definitely not towards you directly. Even though we disagree about some stuff I do enjoy talking to you about it!

I know there are a lot of critics who are good-intentioned and trolls can make conversation rather difficult. I do think the topics can be rather complicated at times and hard to navigate, especially when the conversation turns to our inherent perceptions of gender.

I share your sentiments, and I certainly enjoy our little debates, since your arguments are always reasonable and well thought out. I think we should always remember, that when we’re on opposite sides of a debate , that there’s more that unites us than divides us. I think this is what’s been missing in the fandom in general. Most people express their devotion or criticism, because they want the franchise to flourish, not because they want to see it fail.

Post
#1292312
Topic
Best Explanation Of Mary Sue Issue
Time

Jonno said:

RogueLeader said:

As far as her powers go, I’m under the impression that the Force has literally awakened in the ST. I don’t think it is a static, non-changing energy field. Every Force-user in the ST, including Rey, are capable of powers we have never seen before until now, and I think the Force itself is playing a part in it, hence The Force Awakens. Could they have made it more nuanced or something? Sure, maybe, but it doesn’t ruin the movies for me. I’m satisfied with that and have moved on.

Yes, this seems to have come about because the current filmmakers are telling two new stories (in the films) at the same time: a character whose inherent affinity with the force is stronger than we’ve seen before, and a force-using protagonist who happens to be female.

I don’t think this accurately describes the situation. What the filmmakers have done is introduce a character that no longer obeys pre-existing and well established lore by being able to perform acts that previously could only be performed by individuals who were trained in the ways of the Force. This in of itself does not have to be an issue, if the concepts behind it are well established. However, TFA gives practically no explanation for Rey’s sudden Force abilities, leading to a host of fan theories that explained her abilities by some hidden past. While TLJ only hints at an explanation with darkness rises and light to meet it, as if it was an already established concept. Meanwhile neither Luke or Yoda recognize Rey’s unique status, and just treat her as the next Jedi in line. So, we end up with a character who follows a similar trajectory as Luke or Anakin, ending up confronting the big bad in a throne room setting, while the story largely glosses over the explanation for how she is able to perform these amazing feats. In addition the fact that Rey is able to turn on God-mode at her convenience is criticized by many as detrimental to her character, and defies what many consider to be good storytelling.

Now being a critic of this aspect of the ST myself I’ve seen many analyses of Rey’s character, and rarely have I run into a critic who dislikes Rey simply because she is a female. In fact this is a line of thought that usually comes from those that wish to put critics of the ST into a bad light. The argument more often than not follows the predictable trajectory, where a ST fan argues why they disagree with some of the criticisms against Rey’s character, and thus concludes that since they see no merit in these arguments, there must be some sinister reason why others adopt this stance, and so they must be misogynist, racist, and what not. They simply cannot fathom the idea that a character they consider to be a good, can be considered bad by other reasonable people, and so they use the gender of the character to stifle what would otherwise have been considered reasonable criticism for breaking the pre-established rules, and lore of the Star Wars universe. So, while I condemn all people who reject Rey or any other characters based on gender, race, sexual orientation, I equally condemn those that weaponize gender, race, sexual orientation as a means to attack critical fans, the vast majority of which express their criticism out of love for the franchise, not because of some evil agenda.

Post
#1292180
Topic
Best Explanation Of Mary Sue Issue
Time

RogueLeader said:

Haha, I know Dre! Just couldn’t help myself!

EDIT: But I do feel like Rey did fail quite a bit in TLJ. She failed to physically bring back Luke to the fight, and she failed to turn Kylo, which were her two main goals in this movie. They ended the movie with the whole Resistance fitting on the Falcon, and hope.

The thing for me is, that failure needs to have consequences for it to have an impact. For both of the failures you discussed, it made Luke and Kylo look bad and foolish in the end, not Rey.

As far as her powers go, I’m under the impression that the Force has literally awakened in the ST. I don’t think it is a static, non-changing energy field. Every Force-user in the ST, including Rey, are capable of powers we have never seen before until now, and I think the Force itself is playing a part in it, hence The Force Awakens. Could they have made it more nuanced or something? Sure, maybe, but it doesn’t ruin the movies for me. I’m satisfied with that and have moved on.

I’m aware of the idea, I just think it should have been developed more for it to work in the context of the larger saga.

DOUBLE EDIT: Also, I don’t feel like the end of the second act of every story has to pan out the same way. Maybe it isn’t compelling to you but it still compelling to me.

It doesn’t, but one of the issues here is, that she already beat Kylo at the end of the previous installment, and so she was already too overpowered in the eyes of many. Some humility would have gone a long way to make her more relatable. In stead she ended up standing towering over Luke.

In any case, I still generally like Rey as a character, mostly because of Daisy Ridley’s endearing performance, and I think the dynamic between Rey and Kylo is what really distinguishes the ST from the OT, and is TLJ’s greatest strength. However, I think the idea that Rey is overpowered is not without merit, and so the idea, that anyone who calls Rey a Mary Sue must be misogynist, because she obviously is not overpowered, as if it’s some immovable fact, is deeply flawed. I think the issue is debatable, and most people who use the term Mary Sue simply use it as a hyperbole to express their displeasure at the character, or to antagonize the opposition, and only a very small fraction of critics use it, because they are misogynist.