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CatBus

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Join date
18-Aug-2011
Last activity
21-Sep-2025
Posts
5,978

Post History

Post
#1128186
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

I like to think the recent revelations about Roy Moore will sink his Senate campaign. It’s well-sourced and corroborated with court filings from the time, but it’s already getting called “Fake News” at Breitbart, so who knows what the voters will think? Also, Trump’s racism gave him an impressive margin of victory in Alabama, in spite of the well-documented fact that he was a horrifying human being. Perhaps Moore can still pull this off. Child molesters can still win elections, as long as they’re sufficiently racist child molesters.

Post
#1128045
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

While I’m generally pleased about how the Dems fared this year in Virginia, this interesting stat stands out:

Democratic candidates won 54.8 percent of all votes that were cast for one of the two major parties

The Democrats beat the Republicans by almost ten points in the House popular vote. And that was almost enough to get half the seats in the VA House of Delegates, but not quite. For all the laughing about how the Republican gerrymander was so stupidly aggressive that it made them vulnerable to waves, the gerrymander held. It worked. And as long as there’s not an insane Democratic wave every year, the Republicans will be sailing back to a veto-proof majority in a state they simply can’t win anymore in terms of votes.

If I were a Republican strategist, I’d look at Virginia as a success. And a roadmap for the future. Drawing maps may be hard, but it’s easier than winning.

Post
#1126970
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Warbler said:

I wonder why Alaska’s gun death rate is so high.

Suicide. For real. Which is a huge chunk (over 60%) of all these guns deaths, but Alaska has either the first- or second-highest rate in the country, depending on the year (they trade places with Wyoming). Native Alaskans have one of the highest suicide rates on the planet.

Also, state gun regulations all have the “neighbor state” problem. If you’re near a state with lax gun laws, do the strict gun laws have as much of an effect in your state? Hawaii is a bit of an example of what happens when you have strict* gun laws and no neighbor state problem.

* “Strict” on a US scale, which goes from “very lax” at one end to “completely irresponsible regulatory void” at the other.

Post
#1126872
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

CatBus said:

Virginia prediction: Northam will beat Gillespie, but the Republicans will easily maintain a hold on the House of Delegates, probably losing only a few seats. Trump’s overt white supremacist campaign only got 44.4% there last year, and although Republicans should get a bump due to it being an off-year election, that only bumped their candidate for Governor to 45.2% in 2013. The somewhat academic question will be if Gillespie’s overt white supremacist campaign puts him over or under 45.2%. If over, that means racism still has a strong enough appeal to the Virginia electorate that people will keep trying the Trump/Gillespie formula there (maybe supplementing by adding secondary issues other than appeals to racism). If under, that means white supremacy may play well in other states, but it’s a losing issue in Virginia statewide elections. If under by enough, it may even be an indicator of the “Trump effect” – a national drag on statewide/local Republican performance – certainly for people like Gillespie or LePage who are branding themselves as mini-Trumps.

I guess I should add the alternate scenario: if Gillespie wins, politicians around the nation will see it as a clear sign that running a “no issues/all racism” campaign will not only win in Republican-safe areas, but can be the critical formula to put them over the top in competitive or Democratic-leaning races. Or, worse, it will show it doesn’t matter what sort of campaign you run, you will win as long as you have the backing of Russian bots.

Post
#1126842
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Virginia prediction: Northam will beat Gillespie, but the Republicans will easily maintain a hold on the House of Delegates, probably losing only a few seats. Trump’s overt white supremacist campaign only got 44.4% there last year, and although Republicans should get a bump due to it being an off-year election, that only bumped their candidate for Governor to 45.2% in 2013. The somewhat academic question will be if Gillespie’s overt white supremacist campaign puts him over or under 45.2%. If over, that means racism still has a strong enough appeal to the Virginia electorate that people will keep trying the Trump/Gillespie formula there (maybe supplementing by adding secondary issues other than appeals to racism). If under, that means white supremacy may play well in other states, but it’s a losing issue in Virginia statewide elections. If under by enough, it may even be an indicator of the “Trump effect” – a national drag on statewide/local Republican performance – certainly for people like Gillespie or LePage who are branding themselves as mini-Trumps.

Post
#1126154
Topic
The <em>Stranger Things</em> Thread
Time

Just got into this series (as usual for CatBus, long after the cool kids).

I cannot emphasize enough how much a disagree with people who dismiss the nostalgic/homage angle of this series as superficial or inconsequential next to the meat of the plot/writing/acting/etc. Atmosphere/tone can be everything, and this series (at least through Season 1, I haven’t hit 2 yet*) absolutely fucking nails it. The pacing isn’t eighties pacing, I’ll grant you (it’s not modern either, it’s more like nineties X-Files era pacing, so it still works), but everything else goes very far to recreate that eighties vibe. It just feels so right, and that must take a ton of effort, and I appreciate every bit of it.

Story, acting, plot. Yeah, okay, IMO in this regard it’s not always spectacular. But it’s certainly engaging enough, and it’s often still quite good. Maybe I travel in the wrong circles, but I didn’t have high expectations for this series, and it easily beat them all. We’ll see about Season 2.

* Because I still watch Game of Thrones via Netflix DVD mail-service and I like being a year behind the rest of the world, dammit!

Post
#1125718
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

The White House forgot to falsify the data before the report was released.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/11/03/trump-administration-releases-report-finds-no-convincing-alternative-explanation-for-climate-change/?utm_term=.f5b469275368

The Trump administration has evolved so far past empiricism that their next press briefing will be about how the report found no indications human are a factor at all in the global warming that isn’t happening, just as Sanders went on at length recently about how Mueller’s indictments demonstrated that there was nothing shady at all in the non-existent dealings between the Trump campaign and Russian intelligence services.

Post
#1124956
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

Surely the post office or P.O. box type business can assist in figuring out who mailed them? I would think a mass mailing that large doesn’t go unnoticed. Those responsible might have even been dumb enough to get all that crap printed somewhere. The part about cricket fields is kind of random.
How can you even mail stuff anonymously in 2017?

I’d say it’s still pretty easy to mail anonymously. My family got mailed white supremacist literature via USPS, we handed it over to the cops, and… nada. It’s been years. I’d be more interested to know if any hidden copier or printer codes are buried in those images. We’d probably have a better chance uncovering where those were produced than where they were mailed. Also, I know a postal inspector. It’s all about people mailing drugs, so the resources are already committed elsewhere.

Post
#1124928
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

https://twitter.com/HouseInSession/status/926191150259585024

Oh, Carter Page really should have had a lawyer present to prevent him from saying this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_v._Hubbell

So either he’s saying every single document in his possession incriminates him personally, or he’s just needlessly antagonized a bunch of US Reps and probably landed himself cause for an obstruction and conspiracy charge. Not that the House itself will do anything under current leadership, but they’ve all got phone numbers for the FBI.

Post
#1123945
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

chyron8472 said:

How do we know that he actually felt this way at all?

…That’s a serious question, not a rhetorical one.

It’s documented, I believe through personal letters, that he was one of the more conflicted Confederate figures. But this has been expanded/exploited by Confederate apologists to the point where people say the conflict proved he was actually honorable in spite of his actions (which is a commonplace stretch of the evidence), and then so were the other Confederates (which is the point where you need to start booking a room at Ye Loco Klansman Hotel)

Post
#1123899
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

dahmage said:

Warbler said:

SilverWook said:

moviefreakedmind said:

Warbler said:

SilverWook said:

So was marching him through a crowded parking garage where any idiot could take a shot at him.

They thought he had assassinated the President of the United States. They probably weren’t too worried about protecting him too much.

They would be the dumbest people on earth if they weren’t too worried about protecting him.

Dead men don’t talk.
https://youtu.be/L7e3RK_xSvc

What the hell is that‽

this is a clip from the 1977 Movie “Kentucky Fried Movie”. This skit is about a John F. Kennedy assassination board game.

Which covers all the conspiracy theories people believed in at the time and probably still do.

Naw, Ted Cruz’s dad never shows up.

Post
#1123844
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Mueller has convinced a judge to waive Manafort’s attorney-client privilege, so that his lawyer can testify before the grand jury.

“Essentially, the judge is saying that it is probable or likely that the clients had a criminal or fraudulent purpose in hiring the lawyer, even if (we would hope) the lawyer did not know it,” Gillers told POLITICO.

Further, once you can pierce the privilege, there’s no telling what information you can go on to discover. This decision will be useful in other contests to discover lawyer-client communications, even communications with different law firms, if any.

You don’t say.