- Post
- #190349
- Topic
- Lucas: Big pics are doomed
- Link
- https://originaltrilogy.com/post/id/190349/action/topic#190349
- Time
Originally posted by: MeBeJedi
"In the future, almost everything that gets shown in theaters will be indie movies," Lucas declared. "I predict that by 2025 the average movie will cost only $15 million."
Computer-based video editing will certainly contribute to that. Let's not forget that the SW films, especially the PT, are the biggiest "indie" films in history.
"In the future, almost everything that gets shown in theaters will be indie movies," Lucas declared. "I predict that by 2025 the average movie will cost only $15 million."
Computer-based video editing will certainly contribute to that. Let's not forget that the SW films, especially the PT, are the biggiest "indie" films in history.
This has actually created a new problem. Before, if you wanted to make a movie you had to gather a couple hundred thousand dollars, hire a trained crew and do real post-production just to get the thing made. So there were only so many low-budget films. But now that digital filmmaking has allowed pretty much any dummy to pick a camera, get a cheap editing program and make himself a movie, the marketplace is suddenly flooded with millions (no exageration) of no/low-budget films, even though the marketplace has only expanded slightly since ten-fifteen years ago. Whereas before if you made a low-budget indie you had only limited competition, now the marketplace is completely oversaturated. Do you have any idea how many struggling filmmakers there are now whose films will never be seen by anyone? Too many to count. And its because of digital technology. So it has in effect created a downside. But i guess the rule holds true that if there is a good film out there it will get picked up, and this is generally true.
$15 million is not that expensive and even your average drama only costs $20-30 million nowadays but theres a point we are approaching where digital technology meets its limit. The non-linear editing revolution has already happened. It saved money and theres very little development to do so we wont see cost benefit in the future from this. Equipment, transportation, cast, crew, none of these things will be effected so what is left? Film itself. Digital video will not replace film for a very long time, and by 2025 hopefully it will have advanced to the point where it has at least matched it in terms of quality. So there will be tons of cost savings there, if that happens. Digital projection will also cut down on cost a lot, so maybe, in a best-case scenario, your low-moderately budgeted films will be costing $15 million. But this is not exactly industry-revolutionizing. We aren't going to see some penniless genius make the worlds next Citizen Kane, he'll still need millions of dollars, so that barrier will always be in place. And similarly, the huge effects films will still cost about $60-100 million. So all it will do is save the huge already-rich studios money. The indie filmmakers and no-budget straglers will of course have even bigger benefits and allow them to compete closer to the studios but i dont know if the revolution will be a huge jump from whats already in store now. Hopefully it will though.