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CatBus

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Join date
18-Aug-2011
Last activity
19-Sep-2025
Posts
5,977

Post History

Post
#1078878
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Muslim Ban 2.0 has been slapped down (again) by the 4th Circuit. Unfortunately, they’re probably already at work on Muslim Ban 3.0 while this one is being appealed to its eventual and final defeat.

From the decision:

speaks with vague words of national security, but in context drips with religious intolerance, animus, and discrimination

Yep, that’s the one.

Post
#1078667
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Alderaan said:

CatBus said:

Republicans control all three branches of government

Barack Obama, a Democrat, was the President and in control of the Executive Branch during the investigation.

You can have as many investigations as you want. Double jeopardy only applies to actual trials. If a crime was really committed, it would seem terrible negligence to fail to investigate. Right now, in 2017, while Hillary has no influence anywhere over anyone. But why isn’t it happening? Do you think Trump is covering up for Hillary? What does she have on him? He promised to investigate her, has the power to investigate her, has a slam-dunk case according to you, and yet he isn’t doing it. Hmm. What about Gowdy? Why did he suddenly stop investigating the moment Hillary lost? The very moment her ability to wield her awesome government power for evil was lost, he just gave up and said nevermind, I guess there was nothing to see here after all! He always seemed to be in the tank for Hillary. I smell conspiracy.

Either that or show trial, they smell very much alike.

Post
#1078634
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Assaulting people will certainly be a net positive for Trump fans, and a negative for everyone else. Hard to say what this would mean in Montana, which is a kind of complicated state politically, but generally leans pretty strongly Republican with notable exceptions.

I do wonder if he might end up in prison for part of his term, if elected. That would be weird.

Post
#1078629
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

You know that Montana special election which under normal circumstances would be a Republican cakewalk, but is unexpectedly tight? The one where the election is being held TOMORROW?

Yeah, that one.

The Republican candidate just physically assaulted a reporter, in front of witnesses. The attack was recorded.

The funny thing is, prior to this, the polls still showed him with a slight lead…

Post
#1078604
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Alderaan said:

Are you able to make a legal argument or logical argument that she did not commit a crime? Or are you just going to fall back on the “they didn’t prosecute her, so therefore she didn’t do anything wrong” defense?

I’m making the argument that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case, which I don’t feel I actually need to argue because that’s precisely what the FBI said. Basically what she did was stupid and inadvisable, but there wasn’t enough evidence that it was criminal to bring a case.

Republicans control all three branches of government and both houses of Congress. The thought that Hillary somehow still holds the United States in some sort of death grip of influence from beyond is baffling to me. If she committed a crime, prosecute it. She can’t simply fire the FBI director. Unless of course the whole Emailghazi thing was political theatre and then just let it drop after she loses the election.

Post
#1078591
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

CatBus said:

TV’s Frink said:

Apparently Trey Gowdy is still posting here.

Naw, Trey cleared her too.

He did?

He dropped the investigation. That’s as much of an admission of non-guilt you’re going to get out of him. Imagine a real crime had been committed and you had the power to investigate it. Would you drop the case just because your suspect no longer wielded political power–or would that actually help your investigation?

Post
#1078572
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

The twitter I found it on said it ran August 1st, 1974, 8 days before Nixon resigned.

The recording was ordered released July 24, 1974.

So it was not only released, but so recently released that it would be major headline-grabbing news everywhere in the country, yet old enough that there’s no way he could not have heard it yet.

Willful ignorance. We have a precedent. The Haldeman tape was fake news too, it seems.

EDIT: Dangit, the world operated more slowly back in those days. The court order was on the 24th, but Nixon didn’t actually release the tapes until August 5th. Nevertheless, the world knew they existed due to the Supreme Court case and subsequent order.

Post
#1078568
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

SilverWook said:

TV’s Frink said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/donald-trumps-base-is-shrinking/

There will be those who will stand by their man to the bitter end.

You may commence giggling at that unfortunate sign now.

I’d be curious to know the date of that article because of this:

Orlando Milano, 63, of Elmont, a postal employee, carried a sign that said, “Where’s the real evidence–or is there any real evidence?” He said he doesn’t think there is.

If a Nixon supporter said this after it was known that there was an actual audio recording of Nixon committing the crime for which he was in the process of being impeached, it would be precious. And prescient, as it pertains to Trump supporters today.

Post
#1078517
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/may/24/us-officials-leak-more-manchester-details-hours-after-uk-rebuke

The home secretary reflected the frustration and dismay of the UK security services in a series of interviews on Wednesday morning. She described the leaks as “irritating” and said she had made it clear to the US that it should not happen again.

However, within hours, American reporter Richard Engel of NBC tweeted details not released by the UK. Engel said US intelligence officers told him family members of the the killer, Salman Abedi, had warned UK security officials about him and had described him as dangerous.

Emphasis mine. At this rate, the US is definitely going to get frozen out of intelligence-sharing arrangements. Which, frankly, is probably a good thing if your goal is fighting terrorism.

Post
#1078503
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

TV’s Frink said:

I like how Fox News said this in their retraction of the Seth Rich story:

The article was not initially subjected to the high degree of editorial scrutiny we require for all our reporting. Upon appropriate review, the article was found not to meet those standards and has since been removed.

Lol high degree of editorial scrutiny.

We’re still waiting for that Obama the Secret Muslim retraction, guys.

On their front page today: “No Russia collusion? No problem for press” Whoopsie, must’ve slipped right past their editorial scrutiny filter.

Post
#1078095
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Warbler said:

TV’s Frink said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/north-carolina-gerrymander/index.html

The Supreme Court struck down two congressional district maps in North Carolina Monday, holding that the state had engaged in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The ruling is a victory for the black North Carolina voters who had argued the plans packed African-Americans in districts that already had a high percentage of African-Americans, thus diluting their presence in other districts.

As a result, the ruling sends the North Carolina legislature back to the drawing board – with significant potential implications for the 2018 midterm elections. The state has been nearly split along partisan lines in recent statewide elections – such as for governor and president – but Republicans control 10 US House seats compared to only three for Democrats.

Gorsuch did not participate, but it wouldn’t have mattered as the vote was 8-0 and 5-3 in the two different cases.

Why didn’t Gorsuch participate? He is on the court now. He already participated in one decision not to hear a case.

I don’t know in this particular case, but considering the length of cases in general, he may have been around for the opinion-writing section, and even most of the arguments, but if you weren’t on the court when the arguments started, it would be pretty expected not to participate.

Post
#1078093
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Here’s the letter from Flynn’s lawyers re: the Russia investigation taking the fifth, refusing to turn over documents, and again making the offer for testimony in exchange for immunity:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3728320-Michael-Flynn-counsel-s-letter-to-Senate.html

I’d now like to take a moment of silence, to commemorate the the fact that we will no longer have arguments about whether these documents from Flynn’s lawyers are forgeries, Photoshops, or some other elaborate ruse that Flynn’s lawyers are afraid to contradict for fear of the wrath of Hillary the all-powerful private citizen.

Post
#1078068
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

For those watching the CSR negligence fiasco unfold, the Trump administration just punted, and (I think) that means the CSR payment obligations will be met for 90 days. The problem? While the 90-day extension means they’ll be funded through the insurers’ rate filing deadline (June 21st), insurers like to look a little further into the future than 90 days when setting their rates for the whole year. And it would be very reasonable for them to assume the negligence will return in 90 days, and set their rates accordingly higher.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2017/05/22/blame-for-obamacares-next-rate-hike-shifts-to-trump-and-gop/#1be75bce47c9

Post
#1078048
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

Ryan McAvoy said:

TV’s Frink said:

Tyrphanax said:

Everyone voted against Hillary because of the things Trump is actively doing right now.

Don’t forget that she was on Death’s door.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-exhausted-skipped-saudi-arabia-forum-social-media-sends-ivanka-trump-israel-a7748546.html

Last night I dreamt that the news announced Trump had died from a heart attack. Not making a joke, it’s just something that happened.

I’ll make the joke. Can you imagine the WorldNutDaily reaction to that one?

Thanks, Obama!

Post
#1077903
Topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Time

yhwx said:

CatBus said:

yhwx said:

CatBus said:

That’s huge. But I think the gerrymandering of the House is enough to maintain a Republican majority against even a Democratic tsunami like that.

Source?

The only useful hard data point is this one, which says a 1.2% Democratic victory margin in terms of votes translates into a devastating Democratic defeat in terms of seats. Everything else is modeling and extrapolation (mine included). In general, prognosticators say that things break even at about an 8-9% Democratic advantage. If the Democrats win by 8-9% in the House, control of the House is a toss-up–could go either way. I think both RCP and 538 used this 8-9% value last time around. The problem is that this tends to be a “generic ballot” metric, rather than a per-seat metric. So if the swing seats don’t shift as much as safe seats, the whole model falls apart. Considering the Republicans effectively control the nation’s election process, and have a huge foreign intelligence apparatus willing to selectively take down individual House candidates in key races, I’d say the 8-9% margin simply isn’t big enough to get a win. I’d say we need to win by 12% to win at all. That’s my model, the source is me 😉

EDIT: This is not to say it’s hopeless. But nothing less than the complete collapse of the national Republican party (which, thankfully, still seems to be in the cards, albeit remotely) is going to give the Dems control of anything at the national level in 2018. So… focus on the states. Governorships, state legislatures (Huge pickup opportunites! Gaining 12 more governorships is quite plausible!). We do well enough there in 2018, and we’ll be much better positioned to do something interesting in the House and/or Senate in 2022 after redistricting, when the landscape isn’t tilted quite so strongly against us.

You should change your numbers then. The chance of Democrats winning either the Senate or the House is definitely not 0%, unless that was tongue-in-cheek.

No, I took the probability of total collapse of the national Republican party into consideration. I could have said <1% for this too, but at enough decimal places, it just makes more sense to round down.