DrDre

yotsuya said:

DrDre said:

yotsuya said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

I see you are unaware of what has happened at Disneyland. It is not the failure you think it is. The access to Galaxy’s Edge has been full up. Crowds have been good. What has not been good is overall attendance because no one wanted to compete with the crowds they expected for the opening period. Disney made plans to address that, but not before people had made their vacation plans and skipped over this summer. I expect next year to be one of Disney’s best at the two parks with Galaxy’s Edge.

And it is your opinion that they rebooted the franchise. That completely ignores the cyclical nature of the story and how much the ST is paralleling the EU stories that so many fans are familiar with. I don’t see any issue with attracting a new generation at all. A number of people who are more casual fans like the ST more then the previous movies. And the box office numbers (adjusted for inflation) show that the ST is more popular than the PT was. The only group I see with a big problem with the ST are those who had expectations of what the ST would and would not include and don’t like that it doesn’t live up to that. A repeat of the PT all over again. Let the writers tell their story and sit back and enjoy. I indulge in spoilers so I can divest myself of all expectations and just enjoy how the story unfolds. Your theories of deconstructing and rebooting over analyze the trilogy and widely miss what the movies say about themselves. The ST was always going to involve the death of Luke in the first Episode (the first one he was in) and Harrison has been saying Han should die for 30 years. They passed the torch and Carrie’s passing forced that to be even more complete. This is the Rey, Finn, Poe trilogy and the OT characters are really just enlarge cameos. You had expectations, perhaps not of exactly what the characters would do, but definitely what they shouldn’t do. It is almost as if Lucas, Abrams, and Johnson set out to make a trilogy that was exactly what you didn’t want to see. I see symmetry in the repetition. I see the parallels in myth, history, and pop culture (Star Wars is a more serious take on Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers after all) and I’m enjoying the tale. It is very much what happens after the great war is over and how things move on. Often it is ghosts of the past that haunt the future and bring back a defeated enemy. I find the story of the ST to be very mythic and very classic and not repetitive at all. Certainly not a reboot. If you want to know what I call a reboot, just look over at Star Trek under CBS. The ST has nice echos of the Zahn trilogy while being new and fresh. Just in the ST, they took 30 years instead of 10 years to regroup and attack the Republic.

The Zahn trilogy does not have Empire vs rebels 2.0, or have the New Republic wiped out of existence, such that we reset the galaxy to an OT state. It does not have a Darth Vader wannabe, who also was a former Jedi pupil of the hero’s Jedi mentor. It does not have a fascimile Emperor. It does not have another Death Star like super weapon. It does not have another Jedi prodigy from a Tatooine clone. It does not have another ground battle involving walkers on a white plane. It does not have another throne room scene, where our hero has to witness the destruction of the rebel fleet, and an apprentice betraying his master to save the life of the hero. The Zahn trilogy was new and fresh. I can’t say the same for the ST. I’m not saying the films aren’t entertaining, and there are new elements, and nuances, but the so called cyclical nature is a poor excuse for resetting the story, and essentially giving us the OT with a new coat of paint. I’m not saying I dislike the ST in general, or that they’re bad movies. I’m saying it could have been a whole lot better, if they hadn’t undone most of the OT’s victories, and in stead given us a new and original story with new and original heroes, and villains, that weren’t in some way a slight variation of characters and stories we have seen before.

The Zahn trilogy does have a reminant of the Empire. It does have a unique Jedi student situation. The Republic is unsteady so the players are pretty much the same as Empire vs. Rebels 2.0. And in The ST, the republic has not be wiped out, only the government. We won’t know what the state of the galaxy is until TROS comes out since only days or weeks have passed since the Hosnian system and the fleet were destroyed. I feel you are making too much of what you see as parallels and you aren’t seeing how different the ST is from the OT. I do not share any of your feelings as to what the story of the ST is. I see closer parallels to the Zahn Trilogy. But in any case it is supposed to be similar. Read or seen the Cloud Atlas? Lucas has been going for a simlar story telling feel in Star Wars. Different generations face similar trials and handle it different ways. Anakin failed. Luke redeemed Anakin. What will Rey do? TROS will reveal it. And I think if they create the right trailer and buzz, the movie is going to do very well.

For one the PT is far less similar to the OT than the ST is. Secondly just because Lucas used similar trials to highlight the choices made by Anakin, and Luke, which unlike the ST were part of a single narrative with a beginning and an ending, doesn’t mean that he meant Star Wars to be an endless cycle of similar characters facing similar situations. Lucas also made it very clear he feels each trilogy needs its own visual style:

“They wanted to do a retro movie. I don’t like that. Every movie, I worked very hard to make them different,” Lucas said. “I made them completely different – different planets, different spaceships to make it new.”

So, Lucas obviously felt TFA was too much of a repeat of what we had seen before. Apparently he doesn’t share your views on similar storytelling to the extend that it was used for the ST.

NeverarGreat said:

DrDre said:

yotsuya said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

I see you are unaware of what has happened at Disneyland. It is not the failure you think it is. The access to Galaxy’s Edge has been full up. Crowds have been good. What has not been good is overall attendance because no one wanted to compete with the crowds they expected for the opening period. Disney made plans to address that, but not before people had made their vacation plans and skipped over this summer. I expect next year to be one of Disney’s best at the two parks with Galaxy’s Edge.

And it is your opinion that they rebooted the franchise. That completely ignores the cyclical nature of the story and how much the ST is paralleling the EU stories that so many fans are familiar with. I don’t see any issue with attracting a new generation at all. A number of people who are more casual fans like the ST more then the previous movies. And the box office numbers (adjusted for inflation) show that the ST is more popular than the PT was. The only group I see with a big problem with the ST are those who had expectations of what the ST would and would not include and don’t like that it doesn’t live up to that. A repeat of the PT all over again. Let the writers tell their story and sit back and enjoy. I indulge in spoilers so I can divest myself of all expectations and just enjoy how the story unfolds. Your theories of deconstructing and rebooting over analyze the trilogy and widely miss what the movies say about themselves. The ST was always going to involve the death of Luke in the first Episode (the first one he was in) and Harrison has been saying Han should die for 30 years. They passed the torch and Carrie’s passing forced that to be even more complete. This is the Rey, Finn, Poe trilogy and the OT characters are really just enlarge cameos. You had expectations, perhaps not of exactly what the characters would do, but definitely what they shouldn’t do. It is almost as if Lucas, Abrams, and Johnson set out to make a trilogy that was exactly what you didn’t want to see. I see symmetry in the repetition. I see the parallels in myth, history, and pop culture (Star Wars is a more serious take on Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers after all) and I’m enjoying the tale. It is very much what happens after the great war is over and how things move on. Often it is ghosts of the past that haunt the future and bring back a defeated enemy. I find the story of the ST to be very mythic and very classic and not repetitive at all. Certainly not a reboot. If you want to know what I call a reboot, just look over at Star Trek under CBS. The ST has nice echos of the Zahn trilogy while being new and fresh. Just in the ST, they took 30 years instead of 10 years to regroup and attack the Republic.

The Zahn trilogy does not have Empire vs rebels 2.0, or have the New Republic wiped out of existence, such that we reset the galaxy to an OT state. It does not have a Darth Vader wannabe, who also was a former Jedi pupil of the hero’s Jedi mentor. It does not have a fascimile Emperor. It does not have another Death Star like super weapon. It does not have another Jedi prodigy from a Tatooine clone. It does not have another ground battle involving walkers on a white plane. It does not have another throne room scene, where our hero has to witness the destruction of the rebel fleet, and an apprentice betraying his master to save the life of the hero. The Zahn trilogy was new and fresh. I can’t say the same for the ST. I’m not saying the films aren’t entertaining, and there are new elements, and nuances, but the so called cyclical nature is a poor excuse for resetting the story, and essentially giving us the OT with a new coat of paint. I’m not saying I dislike the ST in general, or that they’re bad movies. I’m saying it could have been a whole lot better, if they hadn’t undone most of the OT’s victories, and in stead given us a new and original story with new and original heroes, and villains, that weren’t in some way a slight variation of characters and stories we have seen before.

Counterpoint: Luuke

Yeah, the Luke clone is lame.

SilverWook said:

Can merchandise over saturation also be a factor? You have at least three different scales of SW action figures competing with each other now.

It can be a factor, but since the toy sales are related to the search volume for Star Wars in general, I would say it is brand recognizability in general, where the saga films have been competing with the standalone films for the audience’s attention. The MCU get away with multiple standalone films, and cross-overs, because the films are interconnected. It might have been a better idea to finish the trilogy before introducing standalone films. The standalone films could have filled the hiatus between trilogies.

yotsuya said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

I see you are unaware of what has happened at Disneyland. It is not the failure you think it is. The access to Galaxy’s Edge has been full up. Crowds have been good. What has not been good is overall attendance because no one wanted to compete with the crowds they expected for the opening period. Disney made plans to address that, but not before people had made their vacation plans and skipped over this summer. I expect next year to be one of Disney’s best at the two parks with Galaxy’s Edge.

And it is your opinion that they rebooted the franchise. That completely ignores the cyclical nature of the story and how much the ST is paralleling the EU stories that so many fans are familiar with. I don’t see any issue with attracting a new generation at all. A number of people who are more casual fans like the ST more then the previous movies. And the box office numbers (adjusted for inflation) show that the ST is more popular than the PT was. The only group I see with a big problem with the ST are those who had expectations of what the ST would and would not include and don’t like that it doesn’t live up to that. A repeat of the PT all over again. Let the writers tell their story and sit back and enjoy. I indulge in spoilers so I can divest myself of all expectations and just enjoy how the story unfolds. Your theories of deconstructing and rebooting over analyze the trilogy and widely miss what the movies say about themselves. The ST was always going to involve the death of Luke in the first Episode (the first one he was in) and Harrison has been saying Han should die for 30 years. They passed the torch and Carrie’s passing forced that to be even more complete. This is the Rey, Finn, Poe trilogy and the OT characters are really just enlarge cameos. You had expectations, perhaps not of exactly what the characters would do, but definitely what they shouldn’t do. It is almost as if Lucas, Abrams, and Johnson set out to make a trilogy that was exactly what you didn’t want to see. I see symmetry in the repetition. I see the parallels in myth, history, and pop culture (Star Wars is a more serious take on Flash Gordon and Buck Rogers after all) and I’m enjoying the tale. It is very much what happens after the great war is over and how things move on. Often it is ghosts of the past that haunt the future and bring back a defeated enemy. I find the story of the ST to be very mythic and very classic and not repetitive at all. Certainly not a reboot. If you want to know what I call a reboot, just look over at Star Trek under CBS. The ST has nice echos of the Zahn trilogy while being new and fresh. Just in the ST, they took 30 years instead of 10 years to regroup and attack the Republic.

The Zahn trilogy does not have Empire vs rebels 2.0, or have the New Republic wiped out of existence, such that we reset the galaxy to an OT state. It does not have a Darth Vader wannabe, who also was a former Jedi pupil of the hero’s Jedi mentor. It does not have a fascimile Emperor. It does not have another Death Star like super weapon. It does not have another Jedi prodigy from a Tatooine clone. It does not have another ground battle involving walkers on a white plane. It does not have another throne room scene, where our hero has to witness the destruction of the rebel fleet, and an apprentice betraying his master to save the life of the hero. The Zahn trilogy was new and fresh. I can’t say the same for the ST. I’m not saying the films aren’t entertaining, and there are new elements, and nuances, but the so called cyclical nature is a poor excuse for resetting the story, and essentially giving us the OT with a new coat of paint. I’m not saying I dislike the ST in general, or that they’re bad movies. I’m saying it could have been a whole lot better, if they hadn’t undone most of the OT’s victories, and in stead given us a new and original story with new and original heroes, and villains, that weren’t in some way a slight variation of characters and stories we have seen before.

yotsuya said:

So far the performance of the Star Wars movies has not surprised me in the slightest. There really aren’t strong figures to go on for the OT and with all the re-releases of Star Wars in those early years it really slants things. It was a game changer on many levels. The rest of the OT had to live up to that and did a great job. They were able to craft a sequel that was better than the original in many ways, though the younger version of myself did not appreciate it.

But since TPM, I have been tracking things. Box Office numbers can be fun to look at. TPM had along run. AOTC had a shorter run. ROTS had the shortest run, but the biggest opening. Just from what I’ve seen, this is likely to be the trend for the ST.

Another trend I’ve noticed is that complaints reduce over time. As time goes on the lasting impression of the films improves. The initial complaints mellow out and more attention is paid to what was done well.

Ultimately the only two statistics that we can track long term are box office numbers and home video numbers.

But here are some variables to consider to interpret the Google stats presented here. Age of fans. Social media use of fans. Dedicated online sites for fandom. Quality of trailer. Quality of toys. Variety of toys. Collectableness of toys. Well, I could go on and on with different things that can very widely and affect stats. Harry Potter fans were largely young when the first books came out and were of an internet savy generation. Marvel fans came in all ages. There had been a few movies, but mostly comic books. But the age of some of the characters means you have a mix of fans covering a wide range of ages and duration. Star Wars has a huge and varied fan base. Fans have come on board with every film and every decade. The thing Star Wars has are many online communities (like this one). So when looking at statistics from Google we have to ask if things are different. What stats are going to give the full picture.

For instance, you can wander over to YouTube to the official Star Wars channel and look up how many views the various trailers have had. The thing you have to keep in mind is that those numbers are not static and keep growing. And the channel isn’t old enough to cover the PT, much less the OT, so it is only useful for comparing the ST and the stand alones. The first teasers in order of release are:
TFA: 24 million
R1: 45 million
TLJ: 44 million
Solo: 13 million
TROS: 31 million
There was a second teaser for TLJ that has 82 million

Then there are the official trailers, not including TROS which hasn’t come out yet:
TFA: 103 million
R1: 38 million
TLJ: 53 million
Solo: 18 million
There was a second trailer for Rogue One that has 27 million

And then the box office from Box Office Mojo (adjusted domestic gross and including all the films):
ANH: 1,286,033,500
TESB: 710,548,800
ROTJ: 729,660,300
AHH SE: 271,395,100
TESB SE: 132,691,800
ROTJ SE: 89,256,800
TPM: 764,280,500
AOTC: 468,630,500
ROTS: 534,514,500
TCW: 44,123,400
TFA: 974,117,000
R1: 544,579,000
TLJ: 609,026,300
Solo: 205,860,700

Of the new films, Solo has done the worst in all areas. If you go by this list and the number of views just of the first trailer for TROS, I’d predict the teaser gets 5-10 million more views by the time the movie is released, the full trailer will have 50-60 million views, and the box office will be better than TLJ, but under $700,000,000.

And to me it isn’t a mystery why Solo bombed. It was the combination of too close to TLJ, the casting, the subject matter, and stiff competition in the theaters. The views of the trailer show the lack of interest.

But my question again is if the Google stats are so informative and show a lack of interest in TROS, why the views of the trailer are so high? And if it is so accurate, why didn’t Rogue One overtake TFA at the box office? Rogue One made more than ROTS, but less than TFA or TLJ, even though by these graphs it should have made more than at least TLJ. But it didn’t. Statistics can be very flawed. The trick is to find solid and repeatable statistics that do provide useful predictive information.

And as a side note, Avengers Endgame is #16 for adjusted box office for all time, between Avatar and ROTJ.

You see, that’s where you’re wrong. With statistics there’s always an amount of uncertainty, and so even if the relationship is strong (correlations > 50%), a movie that shows higher interest can get lower box office returns or vice versa, meaning that interest x will result in y +/- e, where e is a measure of uncertainty, and so the prediction for the box office of RO may be 1300 M +/- 300 M, and TLJ 1100 M +/- 300 M. In any case the relationship between google searches and toy sales has proven to be even stronger, and so the decline of interest in Star Wars can not only be expressed in terms of google search volume, but in toy earnings, which we know have decreasing significantly over the last few years. Many attributed this to decreasing toy sales in general, but now we can show it is simply related to less interest in the brand in general.

oojason said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

I’ll add a different interpretation of events - in the interests of balance…

Critics were not, from the very beginning, ‘branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not’. I recall people associated with the films made it clear that valid and genuine criticism was okay and differing opinions on it were fine, and that they couldn’t please everybody out there (as it has been for many previous films and franchises) - which are reasonable and fair enough views.

I imagine over time the death threats, announcements of their deaths, actors being harassed and abused to the point of being chased off social media, as well as becoming aware of the abhorrent racist and sexist comments online… took their toll. Friends, family and associates explaining to others around them (including kids) that so and so isn’t actually dead as been posted up on the internet (news like this spreads quickly - who knew?) - and does have an effect on people.

Yet people around the film still stated it’s okay to have differing or critical opinion - though some people around the film and franchise also called out the more toxic, sexist and racist elements - and rightfully so.

Unfortunately, in doing this, some of the critics with genuine and valid issues have somehow seemingly felt their views were denied or rubbished - or somehow their legitimate criticisms were being put in with those sexist, racist and toxic views.

Also, some of the more more clickbait and monetised based media - used this criticism of the sexist, racist and toxic views - and spun it as criticism of many people who just didn’t like the film itself - further polarising the fanbase - yet also ensuring future subscribers and revenue streams.
 

Profiting from hate and division, it seems, is a nice little earner. Especially online in the age of monetised channels. Some of the more toxic channels have come together in a bid to boost their respective subscriber lists and revenues with other like-minded social media outlets.

And those that do profit from hate and division won’t be giving that nice little earner up anytime soon…

 

It’s a shame that more people who have genuine and valid issues with the film - seemingly do not call out others who do derogatorily criticise it on the basis of gender, race, sexual orientation, and disability more often - and instead stay quiet, or ignore it, or overlook it.

Or even criticise people who have taken issue with those that have these abhorrent views - seemingly because they mistakenly feel attacked for having genuine criticisms of the film.

 

Feel free to disagree, tear it apart, or whatever. That’s all I’ll be saying on the subject in here - and I don’t wish to derail DrDre’s intriguing thread.
 

I can get behind this. Nice one!

DominicCobb said:

Again, it’s not so much that SW has failed as Marvel has succeeded in an insane way. 23 films in 11 years, and very quickly snatching up the highest grossing franchise title (which it will hold perhaps forever - or at least our lifetimes). The reason for this incredible success is obvious: The Avengers. Here’s really a mega franchise that collects multiple sub franchises and enriched them all. That series has grown exponentially more popular with each crossover because the concept of a crossover is unprecedented, and the desire to see a live action superhero team up film was a strong one for the preexisting Marvel fan base and for others alike - and it was a desire that had been pent up for decades before it ever happened. It’d be unreasonable to expect SW to match Marvel’s success, and perhaps that was actually the problem behind a failure like Solo, where Disney was trying to more closely follow their winning Marvel formula - not every series can be Marvel, and truthfully, as of yet it’s unclear if any series can ever be.

For me, again it goes back to “who cares.” I’ll always prefer Star Wars, I did when I was a kid and it wasn’t the most popular in school, I did when TFA came out and was the biggest movie ever (sort of), and I still do even though Marvel has obviously eclipsed it and everything else. For me, I never felt like I needed my love of Star Wars validated. So, personally, I don’t care if Marvel is more successful. Maybe if they can some day make a movie as good as TFA or TLJ (let alone SW or ESB) I’ll care more. But until then, I’ll love Marvel, but I’ll just love Star Wars a little more, and how much money either makes couldn’t matter to me less.

I think that Star Wars has gone stale. I look at Star Wars these days, and it all has a sameness to it that makes the universe feel small, and inconsequential. I mean forty years have passed, and we’re still fighting stormtroopers, and have former star Jedi pupils running amok. We’re still trying to defeat space Nazis. We get the same visuals with minor updates. In the end they’re all just pale reflections of what once was fresh and original. As fans we can get excited, or angry about cranky Luke, but from a general audience perspective isn’t cranky Luke just Obi-Wan/Yoda with a twist? Isn’t Kylo Ren just Darth Vader Light? Isn’t Rey just a female Luke. As fans we may get excited about a Sith Trooper, but isn’t the general audience going to look at them, and go sarcastically: “O wow, a red stormtrooper, how exciting…”? Did we really need origin stories for classic characters, showing us things we already knew, or didn’t care to know? Isn’t the real issue here, that Star Wars is still stuck in the past, while the MCU has offered something new (in cinema terms), fresh, and exciting? What are we really expecting from TROS? The rebels beat the Empire again. Darth Vader gets redeemed again. Where are the endless possibilities? Star Wars has failed from a certain point of view. It has failed to stay fresh. Star Wars has become a franchise for old people trying to rekindle their youth.

I seriously hope come December JJ offers up something truly unique and exciting both narratively and visually.

Now I’m going to sound hypocritical, but I am curious how Marvel toy sales are doing, mainly because part of me is curious if kids even play with toys at all these days (if I knew any kids I’d ask).

While exact numbers are hard to find, Avengers toys are the main force behind Hasbro’s success right now:

https://www.businessinsider.nl/hasbro-toy-sales-crush-estimates-boosted-by-avengers-endgame-2019-7/

Revenue expectation for Marvel toys for 2018 were approx. $500 M, which is in line with the toy revenue prediction model I showed based on google trend data. So, yes kids still play with toys, just not as much with Star Wars toys. Also the relationship I established between general interest in Star Wars and toy sales works for data from 2005 to 2019, and so there’s no real evidence that lower toy sales for Star Wars are related to a decreased interest in toys in general. Interest in the various properties seem to drive toy sales with a successful property generates interest, boosting toy sales in general, like Endgame in 2019, while less successful properties result in less interest and disappointing toy sales.

OutboundFlight said:

From what I’ve seen, kids of this generation are preferring marvel movies over Star Wars movies. Not that they dislike Star Wars by any means. They like it, but not as much as Marvel, hence it doesn’t have the priority like it did in the 80’s and 2000’s. No one’s fault.

I think it’s that simple.

They do, but this was not some preordained fact. Before 2008 there was no MCU, and so Kevin Feige and his team had to device a plan to get people to see their movies and buy their merchandise. The same was true for Kathleen Kennedy and her team by 2012, only they were starting from an existing franchise, and fanbase. In the end it’s the product and the marketing that made the customer prefer the MCU over Star Wars. That doesn’t mean the Star Wars product is bad, but a different product might have tipped the scales in the favour of Star Wars. Perhaps Star Wars is getting stale, or perhaps it’s the simultaneous introduction of saga films and spin-offs that affected the recognizability of the brand, or perhaps it’s any number of other reasons.

RogueLeader said:

This is really cool, Dre! Where are you getting these datasets from to make your graphs?

I’m wondering about how much actual marketing and advertisement plays into this. Because it’s not like they just release the movies and then wait for the masses to buy toys. Do we know how much they’re spending on marketing for the MCU compared to Star Wars?

Thx! 😃 I got the interest data from google trends, and I just googled the toy data. The marketing budget is a good question, I will take a look at that.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

Two out of the big three are dead, and this trilogy isn’t done yet. A lot of people expected Luke to die in the final installment. R2-D2 has been replaced by BB-8, C-3PO has been sidelined.

I’m not sure why anyone would have expected this trilogy to be about the old big three. That’s not really how this series rolls, nor would it have been practical considering their advancing age (a statement that’s making me sad now that I think of it - moment of silence for Carrie). R2 and 3PO have been sidelined since 2002 and 1999 respectively. No one goes to these movies to see them. And people seem to love BB-8 just as much them, so I’m not sure that “replacing” really backfired in anyway.

I will agree to the extent that if TROS underperforms, probably the main reason will be lack of Han Solo and Luke Skywalker, but I think that says more about how those two characters boosted the performance of TFA and TLJ. Truthfully, Disney’s lucky it got to play with the old characters at all.

I agree. The future of the franchise was always going to be in the hands of a new generation of characters. However, I question the wisdom of undoing much of the classic characters’ achievements, and then to put new similar characters in similar situations. This makes it more difficult for the new generation of characters to distuinguish themselves from the old. People remember Neil Armstrong for being the first man on the moon, but who was the person that followed in his footsteps? It would have been wiser to leave the moon to the old guard, and to have the new characters go on a trip to Mars.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

Two out of the big three are dead, and this trilogy isn’t done yet. A lot of people expected Luke to die in the final installment. R2-D2 has been replaced by BB-8, C-3PO has been sidelined. Also, most people expected the classic characters to die at some point, but not necessarily in the service of a reboot.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

This is how you do an objective scientific analysis. Numbers don’t lie, haha.

Mavimao said:

Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:

1st film: record breaking numbers

2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

And for the ST?

TFA: Record breaking numbers

TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

Some people argue:

TFA: Record breaking numbers

RO: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TLJ: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

TROS: ??

The road to final installment of the ST has been quite different from the OT and PT. Many people have argued, that TLJ feels more like the end of a trilogy than a middle act. Given the waning interest in Star Wars in general, my guess is, that TROS will end up near RO levels, which was also a December release. The fact that TROS is the conclusion to the Skywalker saga might draw in more people, but given that interest is at an all time low, I think TROS just breaking the $1B mark is not at all an unlikely scenario.

Another interesting comparison is how interest worldwide in the Star Wars franchise in general compares to other big franchises, like Harry Potter and the MCU:

This comparison shows while interest in Star Wars was at an all time high in 2015, interest has slumped considerably since the release of TLJ, and currently is at an all time low. Both the Harry Potter franchise and the MCU garner significantly more interest today with the MCU getting a significant boost in the last few years, and the Harry Potter franchise sustaining interest despite the lackluster reception to the latest Fantastic Beasts entry.

The waning interest in Star Wars also explains the disappointing Star Wars toy sales:

Hasbro Star Wars revenue for 2016 was about $333 million, in 2017 it was about $243 million and in 2018 it was about $161 million. Some have argued in the past that toy sales in general have been on the decline, but this graph proves that argument doesn’t hold, since the interest in Marvel/Avengers toys has seen a healthy increase, and since 2018 consistently surpass interest in Star Wars toys by a wide margin:

Finally this graph shows the strong relationship between the cumulative yearly interest in Star Wars in general as measured on google trends, and Star Wars toy sales:

The cumulative interest for this year stands at 56, which translates roughly to toy sales of approx. $100M, a number that might double by the end of the year, but still amounts to an over 50% drop compared to the periods around the releases of ROTS, then the conclusion of the Skywalker saga, and TFA.

On the basis of these graphs, I would conclude that Star Wars as a brand is clearly on the decline, and whatever strategy was chosen by Disney and Lucasfilm hasn’t worked out for them, whilst the strategy of the MCU has been extremely successful thusfar.

RogueLeader said:

Cool! Maybe a comparison with Clone Wars since it is coming back, and Resistance and Rebels are the only other Star Wars shows I can think of. There’s been pretty much no marketing for it so I doubt it will be more than a blip, but I think the cool think about these charts will be to see how they fluctuate overtime.

Here’s a comparison between the interest in the various Star Wars TV shows in the US:

The Clone Wars has seen the most interest by far, and also has the most interest right now. Rebels comes in second, but interest has rapidly decreased once the final season was finished. Resistance and The Mandalorian only get a small fraction of the interest seen for the older TV series, although interest in The Mandalorian will likely increase around November when the first season starts. Star Wars Resistance is the bottom of the barrel though, and it’s no wonder it’s been cancelled after the second season.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

The fact of the matter is, the complaining from TLJ-haters about being painted with a broad brush as something they’re not mostly comes across as silly and whiny. Most of complaints in regards to people calling everyone who criticized the movie “man baby” or “misogynist” are grossly overstated, considering there’s practically no one actually doing that, and these people are just latching on to legitimate critiques of people who actually are being man babies and misogynist, and falsely claiming they’re being lumped in with them (for reasons beyond me, maybe persecution complex or they don’t want to engage with the fact that there are people who are actually like that out there, who might share some opinions on a movie with them). Ultimately, posts like this^ just come across a little tinfoil hat-y. ‘The whole fandom is divided and out to get me, and Lucasfilm is complicit.’ It’s just silly man, I don’t know how else to describe it.

That’s why I call it imaginary. That’s what it feels like, a made up controversy. Obviously there are people out there being annoying on either side. But to the extent that it’s this extensive, disastrous, oppressive ‘climate’… not feeling it personally.

Sorry, but it’s easy for you to claim it’s overstated and imaginary being on the other side. You don’t have to endure all the name calling, and have your motives continually questioned. You yourself accused me of hating the ST two days ago, only to backtrack once I confronted you with it, and yesterday again questioned my motives for doing a little research, implying I must want TROS to fail. Earlier in the week another user here stated, since he or she feels Rey is a perfectly good character, the motives of those criticizing Rey’s character are suspect by default. Even if we’re not open misogynists, and racists, we’re likely closet misogynists, and racists. It’s this sort of atmosphere that contributes to the climate I’m talking about. It’s not just obnoxious fans doing it, it’s regular reasonable people that help sustain it, looking to validate their opinions. Then there’s the media. There have literally been dozens of articles, which boil down to “I’m sure there are some fans with legitimate complaints about the movie, but most of them are toxic”, or the articles that try to do amateur psychology, and explain why some fans dislike the movie, which in the best case scenario can be summarized, that we didn’t get what we want, and want things to stay the same, and in the worst case scenario accuse us of misogyny, racism, and trolling. Then there’s the so called research allegedly showing fans mostly criticized TLJ out of political motives, or show we largely consist of Russian bots, research that was either biased, or taken out of context by the media to produce another clickbait article, and spin the narrative (and retweeted by RJ by the way, who somewhat understandably wants to believe the vast majority of fans like his movie). This has been the climate since TLJ’s release, sparked by a small group of toxic fans, that started harrassing people, and sustained by fans and the media holding on to the belief that the division amounts to little more than a vocal minority.

To recapitulate according to many fans, and the media, I’m a hater bent on the destruction of Disney Star Wars, whereas in reality I still like most Disney Star Wars. I liked TFA upon release, and still do mostly, even if I feel it’s too derivative, and that it’s a missed opportunity to just hit the reset button. I like RO, which I feel is the best Disney movie to date, even if it’s too heavy on the fan service, and the characters could use more development. I dislike TLJ overall for reasons, which have been discussed ad nauseum, but still feel there are good and even great elements to it, like the Rey/Luke/Kylo dynamic, which is up there with the best the franchise has to offer. I thought Solo was an oke movie, but largely forgettable. Finally, I’m cautiously optimistic about TROS, and hope it will be a good movie, that will satisfy most fans. That is my reality, and the reality of the vast majority of critical fans I engage with. We are critical of some of the choices made, and question some of the motives behind it, but are generally still hopeful that the franchise has a bright future ahead.

In any case, we are probably not going to agree on this, so let’s get back on topic.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

Mocata said:

Well I didn’t a box office disappointment that “only” makes 700mil, meant a real box office bomb which, like Solo, completely fails to break even. Not every Disney project is a billion dollar release and some are only average success stories. But that being said I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached it here. The online climate is hard to discern, and how far it reaches into the real world of casual viewers is impossible to measure.

Well, that’s exactly what the article is about. It is possible to measure just that with some degree of certaintly through google searches, which include the casual viewers.

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

Mocata said:

It’s an event movie, it’s a holiday release, I don’t see them struggling. Nothing’s impossible but I see the failure of Solo as something caused by timing and marketing rather than SW as a brand.

A brand which lately has been struggling to reach a new generation of fans, whilst alienating a fraction of the previous generations of fans:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

TROS will likely make a profit, but the question is whether it will break the $1B mark. If not it will be seen a failure nonetheless.

DominicCobb said:

Personally I can’t get past the fact that RO has the highest interest by far, yet lower BO than TFA and TLJ (and even on cumulative interest it’s still quite a bit higher, as is ROTS, over TLJ, despite the ultimate BO performance). Point being, it seems like a rather imprecise science, especially considering there isn’t the full picture for TROS yet.

RO has the highest peak interest, but I added the cumulative interest for a reason, since it provides an average over time, which is a more accurate measure. The relationship between the measured interest and box office has an accuracy of 70%, meaning that there obviously is a measure of uncertainly, but it is a strong relationship, implying a significant drop in interest more likely than not will result in lower box office returns.

And again, I have to ask, who cares exactly? Why bend over backwards to make a prediction when we’ll literally know how it’ll shape up in a few short months? Despite your protestations, it’s hard not to think you want TROS to fail.

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

yotsuya said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.

Not meant as an outburst. Figured you might take issue with some of my word choices but I was writing quickly and they did well as shorthand for - if not your feelings specifically - the feelings of many who talk about similar concerns on the internet. No need to take things personally, it was meant as a general comment.

As for the franchise waning, it’s a fact only so far as it’s naturally coming down from the all time high (77 excluded) of the TFA revival. Anything beyond that is up for debate - like any franchise Star Wars has always had its ups and downs. When the dust settles we’ll see if this is just a natural dip in between Episodes or something more. Either way it shouldn’t affect our view of the content itself.

Star Wars fever ran high from 77 to 80. It kept going from 80 to 83. After 83 it fizzled within 2 years. I saw the same with the PT. The energy was high, toys everywhere, then ROTS came out and poof… everything dropped off.

So I expect that after TROS that things are going to drop off faster. It isn’t a matter of the love of Star Wars waning, it is just that everyone knows the trilogy is over.

And I really can’t align the stats DrDre is quoting to the stats that currently, this far out, that the TROS teaser has 75% of the views of the TFA trailer. That is a huge number of views at this point compared to a teaser trailer that came out 4 years ago. To me that indicates that something about the stats DrDre is quoting are incomplete and aren’t giving us the whole picture.

Well, it could mean the trailer hasn’t been able to create enough interest in the film, and while people were curious about the teaser trailer, interest in the film has waned following the release of the teaser. It could mean interest will increase in the near future, once the marketing campaign is at full throttle. The picture isn’t complete, but it will become more clear as we approach the release date.