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1917 is starting limited and isn’t gong wide until the following month.
Anyway, competition aside there’s zero chance this makes as much as TFA.
The only film more terrifying that Doctor Sleep this season. 😛
Where were you in '77?
Actually, if we look at TFA, it’s only competition in 2015 was Alvin and the Chipmunks. Not hard to see why one movie flopped, and the other became the third highest grossing of all time.
TROS, however, has to deal with…
Jumanji 2, a sequel to a proven franchise with great star power.
1917, a high-stakes war movie that looks very well made.
Cats, which will probably flop but might take presence in memes.
Spies in Disguise, which will likely flop but might take away from child audiences.
Frozen 2, despite coming out last month, will probably still have significant numbers over holidays.
Should 1917 get great word of mouth or Jumanji 2 continue to surprise like its predecessor, TROS is almost guaranteed to make less, regardless of it’s quality.
1917 is starting limited and isn’t gong wide until the following month.
Anyway, competition aside there’s zero chance this makes as much as TFA.
I will add an opening of 230 to my prediction of 750 domestic and 1.5 worldwide.
790m / 1.7b total
50 Cent is just an imposter
6b/1.7t
I regrouped the predictions into an easier to read list.
Opening
144 - voltwaffle
220 - Broom Kid
230 - Rodney-2187
240 - act on instinct
260 - klawrence123
Domestic
400 - voltwaffle
540 - DrDre
620 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
630 - yotsuya
645 - act on instinct
650 - ChainsawAsh
685 - oojason
725 - Broom Kid
740 - mykyta-R4
750 - Outboundflight
750 - Rodney-2187
770 - Force-Abel
790 - V.I.N.Cent
859 - Omni
870 - klawremce123
Worldwide
860 - voltwaffle
1.2 - DrDre
1.3 - act on instinct
1.3 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
1.4 - Broom Kid
1.4 - notsuya
1.5 - Rodney-2187
1.525 - ChainsawAsh
1.625 - Outboundflight
1.65 - oojason
1.7 - Force-Abel
1.7 - V.I.N.Cent
1.75 - mykyta-R4
1.8 - klawremce123
1.8 - Omni
Mavimao - 620-936/1.3-2.0 (“between TFA and TLJ”)[more specific, please]
Long Range Tracking: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-bombshell-and-cats/
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Opening Weekend Range: $185 – 225 million
Domestic Total Range: $550 – 750 million
Frozen 2 is the real head scratcher here, it’s clearly going to be huge, why undercut IX?
Put my opening at 240,
“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV
I regrouped the predictions into an easier to read list.
Opening
144 - voltwaffle
220 - Broom Kid
230 - Rodney-2187
240 - act on instinct
260 - klawrence123Domestic
400 - voltwaffle
540 - DrDre
620 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
630 - notsuya
645 - act on instinct
650 - ChainsawAsh
685 - oojason
725 - Broom Kid
740 - mykyta-R4
750 - Outboundflight
750 - Rodney-2187
770 - Force-Abel
790 - V.I.N.Cent
859 - Omni
870 - klawremce123Worldwide
860 - voltwaffle
1.2 - DrDre
1.3 - act on instinct
1.3 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
1.4 - Broom Kid
1.4 - notsuya
1.5 - Rodney-2187
1.525 - ChainsawAsh
1.625 - Outboundflight
1.65 - oojason
1.7 - Force-Abel
1.7 - V.I.N.Cent
1.75 - mykyta-R4
1.8 - klawremce123
1.8 - OmniMavimao - 620-936/1.3-2.0 (“between TFA and TLJ”)[more specific, please]
Markdown supports tables if you prefer:
| User | Opening | Domestic | Worldwide |
|-----------------|--------:|---------:|----------:|
| voltwaffle | $144M | $400M | $860M |
| Broom Kid | $220M | $725M | $1.4B |
| Rodney-2187 | $230M | $750M | $1.5B |
| act on instinct | $240M | $645M | $1.3B |
| klawrence123 | $260M | $870M | $1.8B |
User | Opening | Domestic | Worldwide |
---|---|---|---|
voltwaffle | $144M | $400M | $860M |
Broom Kid | $220M | $725M | $1.4B |
Rodney-2187 | $230M | $750M | $1.5B |
act on instinct | $240M | $645M | $1.3B |
klawrence123 | $260M | $870M | $1.8B |
MTFBWY…A
Awesome, I didn’t know this. Thanks, Jay!
Thanks for that! Here it is!
User | Opening | Domestic | Worldwide |
---|---|---|---|
voltwaffle | $144M | $400M | $860M |
DrDre | $180M | $540M | $1.2B |
dgraham414 | $230M | $600M | $1.2B |
yotsuya | $240M | $630M | $1.4B |
act on instinct | $240M | $645M | $1.3B |
ChainsawAsh | $650M | $1.525B | |
oojason | $685M | $1.65B | |
Broom Kid | $220M | $725M | $1.4B |
mykyta-R4 | $740M | $1.75B | |
Outboundflight | $750M | $1.625B | |
Rodney-2187 | $230M | $750M | $1.5B |
Force-Abel | $770M | $1.7B | |
V.I.N.Cent | $790M | $1.7B | |
JawsTDS | $290M | $820M | $2.1B |
Omni | $859M | $1.8B | |
klawrence123 | $260M | $870M | $1.8B |
This is fun. Let me know if/when anyone wants to adjust their prediction.
Join in everyone. The more the merrier!
For reference:
Opening | Domestic | Worldwide | |
---|---|---|---|
The Force Awakens | $247M | $936M | $2.0B |
Rogue One | $155M | $532M | $1.0B |
The Last Jedi | $220M | $620M | $1.3B |
Solo | $84M | $213M | $392M |
Avengers: Endgame | $357M | $858M | $2.7B |
My prediction is an opening of 230 million
A domestic gross of 600 million
And a worldwide gross of 1.2 billion
After being beaten and battered by prequel hate, I promise not to be that to the next generation.
this seems relevant here …https://deadline.com/2019/10/star-wars-rising-skywalker-pre-sales-nearly-double-avengers-engame-1202765636/?fbclid=IwAR1G9m-wCknj-AcTkiIScshDcq_9u2P6zVO9x8CaAlAzlS22lNl_w25ldQs
^ ah , never mind …I see it has been posted already …apologies.
may eventually revise to 680/1.4 if situation permits but still seems too early to predict the climate, and I definitely don’t buy into the presale as definitive of anything.
“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV
Going to be bold (and foolish) here.
Opening: $290M
Domestic: $820M
Worldwide: $2.1B
“That said, there is nothing wrong with mocking prequel lovers and belittling their bad taste.” - Alderaan, 2017
MGGA (Make GOUT Great Again):
http://originaltrilogy.com/topic/Return-of-the-GOUT-Preservation-and-Restoration/id/55707
Well, you can add an opening of 240 for me (and please correct my name, it is yotsuya, not notsuya).
Well, you can add an opening of 240 for me (and please correct my name, it is yotsuya, not notsuya).
I added you opening prediction, and I apologize for the typo! I’m truly sorry about that!
My opening prediction is 180. 😃
Here’s a question, how do we factor in The Mandalorian if it proves to be a hit with the same hardcore fans (for lack of a better word) who may have been polarized by the ST? Does it help or hurt IX’s numbers either as a sign of good faith and renewed interest or be just more incentive to stay home and watch their Star Wars the way they like it?
“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV
Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.
I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.
If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.
Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.
The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.
I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.
Well, considering there originally was going to be a Mandalorian based movie and now we’re even getting the same treatment for the upcoming Kenobi series I would say yes it is a factor. Really isn’t just about a single movie either it’s the whole direction of the brand and how fans feel about it. I agree the two projects won’t have much to do with each other, another way to say that is you could pick one without needing to see both. The question is does that satisfy the split (however hypothetically large or small) within the demographics of fans who are happy/unhappy with the ST, or lead to greater fracturing or at least compartmentalizing between the groups and respective content?
If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.
It is part of the broader theatrical vs streaming conversation, for sure. Truly I don’t have the answer, was trying to leave room for opinion, I really can’t say if the Mandalorian undercuts IX or hypes everyone up for more after they’ve completed the first season. My point though being the success or failure of any of these projects does influence the surrounding universe movies and their potential future.
“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV
The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.
If you’re not seeing the latest Star Wars movie in the theater, then I don’t know if you’re a hardcore fan.
To me, hardcore means not only a level of fanaticism, but perseverance and optimism.
I can’t imagine ANYTHING that would keep me from seeing a Star Wars movie theatrically.
I already have a ticket to the 9 movie marathon and multiple showings afterward. That’s hardcore.
Do not order the large soda!
Where were you in '77?