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Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo — Page 271

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thejediknighthusezni said:

CatBus said:

TV’s Frink said:

STOP HARSHING MY BUZZ!

Sorry! 12 Governorships! 12! Totally reasonable chance!

TRULY INSANE!!!

The Democrat Party has been ENTIRELY subsumed by the SAVAGELY DEPRAVED TOTALITARIAN Left and their Globalist puppet-masters.

The Republican party is completely in the thrall of PROFOUNDLY LEFT-WING Globalist-Fascists, with a bunch of right-wing private wannabe oligarchs selling them the rope.

What we are looking at is a show designed to systematically divide the denizens of North America exactly 50/50 to achieve a maximum culling.

^insanity

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CatBus said:

yhwx said:

CatBus said:

yhwx said:

CatBus said:

That’s huge. But I think the gerrymandering of the House is enough to maintain a Republican majority against even a Democratic tsunami like that.

Source?

The only useful hard data point is this one, which says a 1.2% Democratic victory margin in terms of votes translates into a devastating Democratic defeat in terms of seats. Everything else is modeling and extrapolation (mine included). In general, prognosticators say that things break even at about an 8-9% Democratic advantage. If the Democrats win by 8-9% in the House, control of the House is a toss-up–could go either way. I think both RCP and 538 used this 8-9% value last time around. The problem is that this tends to be a “generic ballot” metric, rather than a per-seat metric. So if the swing seats don’t shift as much as safe seats, the whole model falls apart. Considering the Republicans effectively control the nation’s election process, and have a huge foreign intelligence apparatus willing to selectively take down individual House candidates in key races, I’d say the 8-9% margin simply isn’t big enough to get a win. I’d say we need to win by 12% to win at all. That’s my model, the source is me 😉

EDIT: This is not to say it’s hopeless. But nothing less than the complete collapse of the national Republican party (which, thankfully, still seems to be in the cards, albeit remotely) is going to give the Dems control of anything at the national level in 2018. So… focus on the states. Governorships, state legislatures (Huge pickup opportunites! Gaining 12 more governorships is quite plausible!). We do well enough there in 2018, and we’ll be much better positioned to do something interesting in the House and/or Senate in 2022 after redistricting, when the landscape isn’t tilted quite so strongly against us.

You should change your numbers then. The chance of Democrats winning either the Senate or the House is definitely not 0%, unless that was tongue-in-cheek.

No, I took the probability of total collapse of the national Republican party into consideration. I could have said <1% for this too, but at enough decimal places, it just makes more sense to round down.

I still think that placing Democrats’ chances to win the House at 0% is as ridiculous as placing Hillary Clinton’s chance to win the presidency at 99%. To each their own, though.

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lol the pay for play going on in the Trump White House is ridiculous.

Everyone voted against Hillary because of the things Trump is actively doing right now. I love it. It’s sad, but at the same time it’s hilarious.

Keep Circulating the Tapes.

END OF LINE

(It hasn’t happened yet)

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TV’s Frink said:

Tyrphanax said:

Everyone voted against Hillary because of the things Trump is actively doing right now.

Don’t forget that she was on Death’s door.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-exhausted-skipped-saudi-arabia-forum-social-media-sends-ivanka-trump-israel-a7748546.html

Last night I dreamt that the news announced Trump had died from a heart attack. Not making a joke, it’s just something that happened.

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Ryan McAvoy said:

TV’s Frink said:

Tyrphanax said:

Everyone voted against Hillary because of the things Trump is actively doing right now.

Don’t forget that she was on Death’s door.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-exhausted-skipped-saudi-arabia-forum-social-media-sends-ivanka-trump-israel-a7748546.html

Last night I dreamt that the news announced Trump had died from a heart attack. Not making a joke, it’s just something that happened.

I’ll make the joke. Can you imagine the WorldNutDaily reaction to that one?

Thanks, Obama!

Project Threepio (Star Wars OOT subtitles)

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For those watching the CSR negligence fiasco unfold, the Trump administration just punted, and (I think) that means the CSR payment obligations will be met for 90 days. The problem? While the 90-day extension means they’ll be funded through the insurers’ rate filing deadline (June 21st), insurers like to look a little further into the future than 90 days when setting their rates for the whole year. And it would be very reasonable for them to assume the negligence will return in 90 days, and set their rates accordingly higher.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2017/05/22/blame-for-obamacares-next-rate-hike-shifts-to-trump-and-gop/#1be75bce47c9

Project Threepio (Star Wars OOT subtitles)

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CatBus said:

For those watching the CSR negligence fiasco unfold, the Trump administration just punted, and (I think) that means the CSR payment obligations will be met for 90 days. The problem? While the 90-day extension means they’ll be funded through the insurers’ rate filing deadline (June 21st), insurers like to look a little further into the future than 90 days when setting their rates for the whole year. And it would be very reasonable for them to assume the negligence will return in 90 days, and set their rates accordingly higher.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2017/05/22/blame-for-obamacares-next-rate-hike-shifts-to-trump-and-gop/#1be75bce47c9

A metaphor?

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TV’s Frink said:

Tyrphanax said:

Everyone voted against Hillary because of the things Trump is actively doing right now.

Don’t forget that she was on Death’s door.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2017/05/22/trump-said-what/?utm_term=.d9483c9b38e2

Was Trump “exhausted,” as a briefer claimed yesterday in explaining why he muffed the phrase “Islamic extremism” in his speech in Saudi Arabia? If so, we are reminded that a 70-year-old obese man with a horrible diet and refusal to exercise (except for a weekend of golf) may not have the wherewithal to make it through the rigors of the presidency. He was only a couple of days into the trip when, apparently, he couldn’t spit out his lines correctly. The alternative explanation is that he is not, as he famously said, “like, a smart person.” That realization should petrify both Americans and our allies and entice our enemies, who are probably convinced they can fool the hapless president again and again.

Trump’s error is so laughably horrible it left many observers shaking their heads. “I can’t imagine why the President would be commenting on this in a public setting on camera,” said former ambassador Eric S. Edelman. “To the extent that information was unintentionally shared in the conversations with the Russians, he will now be seen to be confirming the origin. It is just further evidence of his total lack of understanding of the uses and abuses of classified information.”

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http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/north-carolina-gerrymander/index.html

The Supreme Court struck down two congressional district maps in North Carolina Monday, holding that the state had engaged in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The ruling is a victory for the black North Carolina voters who had argued the plans packed African-Americans in districts that already had a high percentage of African-Americans, thus diluting their presence in other districts.

As a result, the ruling sends the North Carolina legislature back to the drawing board – with significant potential implications for the 2018 midterm elections. The state has been nearly split along partisan lines in recent statewide elections – such as for governor and president – but Republicans control 10 US House seats compared to only three for Democrats.

Gorsuch did not participate, but it wouldn’t have mattered as the vote was 8-0 and 5-3 in the two different cases.

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Here’s the letter from Flynn’s lawyers re: the Russia investigation taking the fifth, refusing to turn over documents, and again making the offer for testimony in exchange for immunity:

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3728320-Michael-Flynn-counsel-s-letter-to-Senate.html

I’d now like to take a moment of silence, to commemorate the the fact that we will no longer have arguments about whether these documents from Flynn’s lawyers are forgeries, Photoshops, or some other elaborate ruse that Flynn’s lawyers are afraid to contradict for fear of the wrath of Hillary the all-powerful private citizen.

Project Threepio (Star Wars OOT subtitles)

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TV’s Frink said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/north-carolina-gerrymander/index.html

The Supreme Court struck down two congressional district maps in North Carolina Monday, holding that the state had engaged in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The ruling is a victory for the black North Carolina voters who had argued the plans packed African-Americans in districts that already had a high percentage of African-Americans, thus diluting their presence in other districts.

As a result, the ruling sends the North Carolina legislature back to the drawing board – with significant potential implications for the 2018 midterm elections. The state has been nearly split along partisan lines in recent statewide elections – such as for governor and president – but Republicans control 10 US House seats compared to only three for Democrats.

Gorsuch did not participate, but it wouldn’t have mattered as the vote was 8-0 and 5-3 in the two different cases.

Why didn’t Gorsuch participate? He is on the court now. He already participated in one decision not to hear a case.

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Warbler said:

TV’s Frink said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/north-carolina-gerrymander/index.html

The Supreme Court struck down two congressional district maps in North Carolina Monday, holding that the state had engaged in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The ruling is a victory for the black North Carolina voters who had argued the plans packed African-Americans in districts that already had a high percentage of African-Americans, thus diluting their presence in other districts.

As a result, the ruling sends the North Carolina legislature back to the drawing board – with significant potential implications for the 2018 midterm elections. The state has been nearly split along partisan lines in recent statewide elections – such as for governor and president – but Republicans control 10 US House seats compared to only three for Democrats.

Gorsuch did not participate, but it wouldn’t have mattered as the vote was 8-0 and 5-3 in the two different cases.

Why didn’t Gorsuch participate? He is on the court now. He already participated in one decision not to hear a case.

I don’t know in this particular case, but considering the length of cases in general, he may have been around for the opinion-writing section, and even most of the arguments, but if you weren’t on the court when the arguments started, it would be pretty expected not to participate.

Project Threepio (Star Wars OOT subtitles)

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CatBus said:

Warbler said:

TV’s Frink said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/22/politics/north-carolina-gerrymander/index.html

The Supreme Court struck down two congressional district maps in North Carolina Monday, holding that the state had engaged in an unconstitutional racial gerrymander.

The ruling is a victory for the black North Carolina voters who had argued the plans packed African-Americans in districts that already had a high percentage of African-Americans, thus diluting their presence in other districts.

As a result, the ruling sends the North Carolina legislature back to the drawing board – with significant potential implications for the 2018 midterm elections. The state has been nearly split along partisan lines in recent statewide elections – such as for governor and president – but Republicans control 10 US House seats compared to only three for Democrats.

Gorsuch did not participate, but it wouldn’t have mattered as the vote was 8-0 and 5-3 in the two different cases.

Why didn’t Gorsuch participate? He is on the court now. He already participated in one decision not to hear a case.

I don’t know in this particular case, but considering the length of cases in general, he may have been around for the opinion-writing section, and even most of the arguments, but if you weren’t on the court when the arguments started, it would be pretty expected not to participate.

Yeah, if he weren’t around when it started at the Supreme Court level, it could be argued that he shouldn’t participate in the ruling.

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From the article:

Justice Neil Gorsuch didn’t participate because he was not on the bench when the case was heard.

Of course, it’s a CNN article, so it’s automatically fake news.

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Uh oh. He threw down.

Nobody can leave the thread until the dance-off challenge is answered.

Project Threepio (Star Wars OOT subtitles)

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TV’s Frink said:

From the article:

Justice Neil Gorsuch didn’t participate because he was not on the bench when the case was heard.

Of course, it’s a CNN article, so it’s automatically fake news.

Yes, indeed. I’ll have to check with FOX News before I believe it.

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CatBus said:

Uh oh. He threw down.

Nobody can leave the thread until the dance-off challenge is answered.

I don’t get it.

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“Nobody will think to look for my tax returns in here”

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