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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 9

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770m US
930m ‘Foreign’
1.7b total

I think it will do better than some belive. I mean, all the haters for TLJ and ‘Disney Star Wars’ will have to go watch it if only to endlessly complain and nitpick over and again for years to come.

Especially the clickbaiters, and the toxic and negative channels = more money made for the film they will hate or bullshit on. Some of them will no doubt be so hateful they will need to go see it multiple times to write down everything they will be angry about, find fault with, or dislike about it to make money themselves 😉

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Force-Abel said:

Especially the clickbaiters, and the toxic and negative channels = more money made for the film they will hate or bullshit on.

This is an unfortunate truth. Negativity gets clicks and clicks are money.

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At the end of the day, this is still a Star Wars movie. Specifically the end. Audiences love ends of franchises. I don’t think negativity from TLJ will play much of a role into TROS. Rather Episode Nine’s real problem is its contenders in December.

The reason TFA did so well was for the long stretch of December - mid-January it was the only blockbuster in cinemas. Prime Holiday Season. Families wanting to take a break in the holidays and see a movie really only had one choice, and considering how the film was built - to be a simple, enjoyable experience, it fit perfectly into this mold.

Compare this to December 2017, and TLJ reigned supreme at first, but just five days later two surprising popular films - Jumanji and The Greatest Showman - showed up. They took most of TLJ’s end of the holiday season steam. Couple this with the length + more nuanced nature of TLJ, and you don’t have a film that encourages the kind of marketing TFA prospered off. I don’t think the “backlash” contributed to much at all.

TROS is in an interesting situation. Jumanji 2 is coming, but it is slated a week before TROS opens. This makes it marketing towards the prime audience. Now Star Wars is notorious for not doing so well internationally, at least compared to America. Jumanji could steal a huge chunk of TROS’s overseas sales. I still think it will reign king in America, though. Abrams will likely direct the film as “fun” like TFA, even if there are more creative elements, leading to more rewatches over the holiday season.

Maul- A Star Wars Story

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If the previous trilogies are anything to go by, then this movie should make more than TLJ but less than TFA. Should the results be actually worse than TLJ (which would surprise me)there will probably be a lot of discussion about reasons. Those who think Last Jedi killed Star Wars will be “told you so”, others might argue there is a fatigue caused by to many movies/ the spinoffs. That’s most likely what Disney would assume. They already think it’s the main reason for Solo underperfomance.

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Solo’s biggest issue was that they (bafflingly) placed it in May rather than December, just six months after the last movie. Then they failed to properly market the movie at all. They failed to give it an original “feel” (love or hate it, the MCU does a really good job making each trailer feel unique so people hype about each movie). Last, and most of all, it was right after Infinity War AND Deadpool 2. Movies that to the general audience were far more interesting than a Solo origin movie.

Maul- A Star Wars Story

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OutboundFlight said:

Solo’s biggest issue was that they (bafflingly) placed it in May rather than December, just six months after the last movie. Then they failed to properly market the movie at all. They failed to give it an original “feel” (love or hate it, the MCU does a really good job making each trailer feel unique so people hype about each movie). Last, and most of all, it was right after Infinity War AND Deadpool 2. Movies that to the general audience were far more interesting than a Solo origin movie.

I often wonder what the box office for Solo would have been if they released in December.

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Between Solo’s botched release (largely Iger’s fault) and Iger’s latest strategy of releasing a memoir full of stories where he makes George Lucas feel bad literally one week before the marketing campaign for the end of the Skywalker Saga starts, you have to wonder just how angry Kathleen Kennedy is at her boss right now.

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Only 10 predictions so far. It’s all in good fun, join in everyone! We will all congratulate the winner.

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Dammit - why didn’t I guess first and then lock the thread? Easy wins 😉

 

My numbers plucked out of the air guess… 685m US. 1.65b total.
 

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

I find that answer vague and unconvincing. Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves?
Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? And say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

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^ Ha. Very good 😃

My guess is 740m USA. 1.75b in total

R4

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Broom Kid said:

Between Solo’s botched release (largely Iger’s fault) and Iger’s latest strategy of releasing a memoir full of stories where he makes George Lucas feel bad literally one week before the marketing campaign for the end of the Skywalker Saga starts, you have to wonder just how angry Kathleen Kennedy is at her boss right now.

I’m sure the anger is mutual, lot of drama behind the scenes is just inevitable when the stakes are this high, remember the Sony emails?

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Okay, I’m gonna have to be the extremely pessimistic guy here with my projections.

Opening 144M
Domestic 400M
International 460M

Total 860M

I am prepared for you hate.

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Here is the science behind this. Numbers do not lie…

If you are going to predict how TROS will do domestically, one has to look at the December calendar. TJL did not fare as well because the following Monday, the students were still in school. It had nothing to do with the online trolling, SW haters, etc. It is all about the holiday calendar. That’s why TLJ’s SECOND full week in the theater made more than its first week because students were in school. Both R1 and TFA had the benefit of a week where students were not in school. TROS will play similar fiddle to TFA and R1.

That being said, and knowing the holiday calendar, TROS will open very closely - if not more than - the TFA. It will play on about 500 more screens than TFA. If its per screen average is between TFA and TLJ, It will therefore open up to around 260,000,000 opening weekend. More than both TFA and TLJ. By the end of the holiday season, it will pass TLJ’s holiday season by over 100 million.

Keeping the same holiday schedule of SW movie goers (TFA and R1) by the time it is all said and done, it will finish just ahead of Endgame, with about 870 million. By the time it hits its 20th day of the holiday season, it will be well ahead of Endgame’s 20th day and stay ahead through its run.

If this movie gets reviewed well (as the last 4 did) and JJ pulls off a great ending, then it could top 900 million, but that’s a long shot.

Opening weekend = 260 M
Domestic = 870 M
Worldwide = 1.8 billion.

All of those “SW haters” won’t put a dent in this one.

Those are the numbers…

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Something else to keep in mind: The Force Awakens had a lot of overnight screens in play for the opening weekend. I don’t remember that happening for the Last Jedi, and I’m not sure it’s going to happen for Rise of Skywalker, either. The Force Awakens was such an event that a large number of chain theaters went back to doing round-the-clock screenings for the first 3 nights, which basically almost never happens anymore, along with midnight screenings.

But if theaters decide they want to go for it, its possible that on top of the extra 500 screens Rise of Skywalker is getting, they could get a bunch of extra showtimes ON those screens if they just keep the doors open all weekend long. But that depends on how overwhelming Disney makes the buzz. If they market this right, it’ll seem like the smart thing for theater owners to do. But if the marketing isn’t on point, they’ll decide to stick with normal operating hours, and that extra boost won’t apply.

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TLJ definitely had overnight screenings in my area. I mean, understand that theaters will add more screenings according to demand. In my area there was enough demand to keep some theaters open 72 hours. But movies don’t necessarily automatically just make more money if they add screenings at 3am, only if the demand is high enough that people are willing to go at that time.

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Mavimao said:

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

Rodney-2187 said:

I’ll predict The Rise of Skywalker to do $700,000,000 domestic and $1,400,000,000 worldwide. That’s more than The Last Jedi and less than The Force Awakens, very respectable.

yotsuya said:
I’m very confident it will do better than TLJ. I will be very surprise if it fails to do that. That means in the US it should get about $630 million and worldwide about $1.4 billion.

pleasehello said:
I’m definitely predicting less than The Last Jedi. I really think a lot of people were turned off by it and don’t feel the need to see final installment.

Broom Kid said:

220 mil domestic opening weekend
725 mil domestic
675 mil international
1.4 bil worldwide total

ChainsawAsh said:

Alright, I’ll bite.

650m domestic, 875m international. 1.525 billion worldwide.

DrDre said:

Domestic 540m, international 660m, total 1.2b.

act on instinct said:

645/1.3

OutboundFlight said:

750 in America
875 in foreign
1.625 billion in total

Force-Abel said:

770m US
930m ‘Foreign’
1.7b total

oojason said:
My numbers plucked out of the air guess… 685m US. 1.65b total.
 

mykyta-R4 said:

My guess is 740m USA. 1.75b in total

voltwaffle said:

Opening 144M
Domestic 400M
International 460M

Total 860M

klawrence123 said:

Opening weekend = 260 M
Domestic = 870 M
Worldwide = 1.8 billion.

Omni said:

~850m domestic - 1.8b worldwide.

More concise and somewhat in order from lowest to highest:

voltwaffle - 400/860
DrDre - 540/1.2
pleasehello - > 620/1.3 (“less than the Last Jedi”)
Mavimao - 620-936/1.3-2.0 (“between TFA and TLJ”)
yotsuya - 630/1.4
act on instinct - 645/1.3
ChainsawAsh - 650/1.525
oojason - 685/1.65
Rodney-2187 - 700/1.4
Broom Kid - 725/1.4
mykyta-R4 - 740/1.75
Outboundflight - 750/1.625
Force-Abel - 770/1.7
Omni - 859/1.8
klawremce123 - 870/1.8

I’m sure some will want to revise their predictions as the hype gears up. I’ll keep everything up to date. It’s all just for fun anyway.

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Holy guacamole! Already thinking of revising my prediction upward after that trailer! The Force is strong with this one!

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On that topic, I’ve seen every Disney Star Wars movie at a specific theater on opening night and now pretty much EVERY showing is sold out… I even called asking if they’d get more showings and they said that theyre trying to but I’m so sad and pissed right now that I missed getting tickets… I’m an emotional wreck

Green is not a creative color

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dgraham414 said:

On that topic, I’ve seen every Disney Star Wars movie at a specific theater on opening night and now pretty much EVERY showing is sold out… I even called asking if they’d get more showings and they said that theyre trying to but I’m so sad and pissed right now that I missed getting tickets… I’m an emotional wreck

I wouldn’t worry too much, if your theater is anything like the ones I’m familiar with they’ll be adding plenty more screenings (especially if all the ones they have are sold out).

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I think The Rise of Skywalker will exceed box office predictions/expectations.

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I agree.

~850m domestic - 1.8b worldwide.

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adywan said:

According to Atom Tickets, Rise of Skywalker sold 45% more tickets in it’s first hour of pre-sales than Avengers Endgame did.

https://www.cnet.com/news/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-beats-avengers-endgame-in-first-hour-of-presales/

https://deadline.com/2019/10/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-first-day-pre-sales-2nd-best-for-atom-tickets-1202766729/

As it stands, Atom Tickets’ top five movies with the best first day of pre-sales are as follows:

  1. Avengers: Endgame
  2. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
  3. Aquaman
  4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
  5. Avengers: Infiniti War

Endgame in the days prior to its April 26 opening had amassed an estimated $120M+ in presales before the film even projected on screen. That figure outstripped Star Wars: Force Awakens’ presales of $100M+ (opening weekend $247.9M). Off Endgame‘s lofty presale numbers, many anticipated a $300M+ all-time record opening and that’s exactly what happened with $357.1M in U.S./Canada.

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Well just look at the competition and think what else people have to do over the holidays. Watch Cats?

Yub Nub for life