TROS will likely make a profit, but the question is whether it will break the $1B mark. If not it will be seen a failure nonetheless.
Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:
1st film: record breaking numbers
2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.
3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.
And for the ST?
TFA: Record breaking numbers
TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.
TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)
I’ll predict The Rise of Skywalker to do $700,000,000 domestic and $1,400,000,000 worldwide. That’s more than The Last Jedi and less than The Force Awakens, very respectable.
This is of course before seeing a full trailer and experiencing the full marketing hype. Some positive word of mouth combined with the holiday season could considerably increase those numbers.
I’d predict the teaser gets 5-10 million more views by the time the movie is released, the full trailer will have 50-60 million views, and the box office will be better than TLJ, but under $700,000,000.
I’m very confident it will do better than TLJ. I will be very surprise if it fails to do that. That means in the US it should get about $630 million and worldwide about $1.4 billion.
I’m definitely predicting less than The Last Jedi. I really think a lot of people were turned off by it and don’t feel the need to see final installment.
Keep ‘em coming!