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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 8

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DrDre said:
TROS will likely make a profit, but the question is whether it will break the $1B mark. If not it will be seen a failure nonetheless.

Mavimao said:

Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:

1st film: record breaking numbers

2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

And for the ST?

TFA: Record breaking numbers

TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

Rodney-2187 said:

I’ll predict The Rise of Skywalker to do $700,000,000 domestic and $1,400,000,000 worldwide. That’s more than The Last Jedi and less than The Force Awakens, very respectable.

This is of course before seeing a full trailer and experiencing the full marketing hype. Some positive word of mouth combined with the holiday season could considerably increase those numbers.

yotsuya said:
I’d predict the teaser gets 5-10 million more views by the time the movie is released, the full trailer will have 50-60 million views, and the box office will be better than TLJ, but under $700,000,000.

yotsuya said:
I’m very confident it will do better than TLJ. I will be very surprise if it fails to do that. That means in the US it should get about $630 million and worldwide about $1.4 billion.

pleasehello said:
I’m definitely predicting less than The Last Jedi. I really think a lot of people were turned off by it and don’t feel the need to see final installment.

Keep ‘em coming!

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The D23 reel is a trailer. It is cut like a trailer, it is being viewed as a trailer. It is intended to get fans interested and make them talk about the film.

Several of the movies have had different trailer releases and that does not change my prediction. I don’t know how many views this one will get, but the full trailer will get a lot of views. I think hype is going to build on this film as the release approaches. If you are expecting it to flop I think you’ll be surprised. Star Wars movies have traditionally not relied on just diehard fans to make money. Only movies that can appeal to the general public top the box office.

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yotsuya said:

Star Wars movies have traditionally not relied on just diehard fans to make money.

How’d that go for Solo?

TROS won’t lose money but it’s not going to meet the expectations suits at the top want.

Star Wars has been on a decline in public interest for a while now. Movie sales are down. Toy sales are down. Merch sales are down. Book/comic/game sales are down. Google searches are down. Trailer views are down. Social media engagement is down. Everything is down.

Why there are still people who insist that Star Wars is doing just fine is beyond me. The IP is tanking hard, worse than it ever has before, and the numbers are reflecting that in droves.

Disney/nuLucasfilm has torpedoed the brand and if TROS underperforms it’s in serious trouble.

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17 millions views for the D23 trailer of TRoS in 5 days on the official Star Wars YouTube channel, 16 millions in one week for The Mandalorian trailer… That doesn’t seems down for me.

Show us your sources for everything is down !

Han: Hey Lando! You kept your promise, right? Not a scratch?
Lando: Well, what’s left of her isn’t scratched. All the scratched parts got knocked off along the way.
Han (exasperated): Knocked off?!

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Ryan-SWI said:

yotsuya said:

Star Wars movies have traditionally not relied on just diehard fans to make money.

How’d that go for Solo?

TROS won’t lose money but it’s not going to meet the expectations suits at the top want.

Star Wars has been on a decline in public interest for a while now. Movie sales are down. Toy sales are down. Merch sales are down. Book/comic/game sales are down. Google searches are down. Trailer views are down. Social media engagement is down. Everything is down.

Why there are still people who insist that Star Wars is doing just fine is beyond me. The IP is tanking hard, worse than it ever has before, and the numbers are reflecting that in droves.

Disney/nuLucasfilm has torpedoed the brand and if TROS underperforms it’s in serious trouble.

I can’t tell if you are happy to be saying this or sad. Star Wars will be just fine.

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Ryan-SWI said:

yotsuya said:

Star Wars movies have traditionally not relied on just diehard fans to make money.

How’d that go for Solo?

TROS won’t lose money but it’s not going to meet the expectations suits at the top want.

Star Wars has been on a decline in public interest for a while now. Movie sales are down. Toy sales are down. Merch sales are down. Book/comic/game sales are down. Google searches are down. Trailer views are down. Social media engagement is down. Everything is down.

Why there are still people who insist that Star Wars is doing just fine is beyond me. The IP is tanking hard, worse than it ever has before, and the numbers are reflecting that in droves.

Disney/nuLucasfilm has torpedoed the brand and if TROS underperforms it’s in serious trouble.

Solo wasn’t a saga film. It didn’t tie into the saga in any way where Rogue One did. It also was up against much stiffer competition that Star Wars films usually get. So you can’t cite Solo for the IP tanking. In fact, the trailer views directly contradict what you are trying to say.

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Two movies in the top 10 all-time domestic box office list and a third at #12 is tanking? I bet a lot of people wish they could tank like that.

1.The Force Awakens - $936,662,225

2.Avengers: Endgame - $858,041,646

9.The Last Jedi - $620,181,382

12.Rogue One - $532,177,324

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220 mil domestic opening weekend
725 mil domestic
675 mil international
1.4 bil worldwide total

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I think the move to TV shows in the announced new slate is proof Disney is hedging its bets on the new film not doing as well. I’ve even met others who are not major fans in day to day regular life who have expressed my sentiment of never again being taken in after TLJ and sitting this one out completely. And it’s not an isolated incident but something that’s happened several times without my bringing it up.
Ultimately I think there will be some kind of box office fall off even if it isn’t form that as their handling of the franchise has not gotten to the Marvel levels they wished.

VADER!? WHERE THE HELL IS MY MOCHA LATTE? -Palpy on a very bad day.

“George didn’t think there was any future in dead Han toys.”-Harrison Ford

My review blog: thehificelluloidmonster.wordpress.com

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The spin-off movies being put on ice may be a reaction to the recent box office results, but I think that the TV route is still their way of turning SW into one big series so that viewers feel seeing every piece is essential. Particularly now that all the shows under their umbrella have that veneer of exclusivity. I wouldn’t be surprised if the audience being hooked back in improves the status of the big screen releases.

Yub Nub for life

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Very intriguing data here and analysis! It definitely lines up well with my personal interest with Disney Star Wars. I remember eagerly replaying trailers for TFA, RO, and TLJ, as I was excited and already conjuring up in my head how the stories would unfold. Although I do not dislike TLJ, it did hammer a nail into the coffin for my enthusiasm for Star Wars. Solo began the first time I was not excited nor interested in seeing a SW film in theaters. I’ll still most likely see TROS opening week, but just as the data shows, it paints the hollow interest I have left for the way the franchise continues to run.

The Hope Awakens

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Just went through the thread and for a topic titled “box office predictions and expectations” I believe only 3 people in 8 pages have actually made ANY prediction with a definite number attached, and I’m one of them.

You guys gonna put your calls on the line? We’re a few months out, time is getting short…

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Would you guys be interested if we made this into a little competition just for fun?

I can keep track with predictions on a excel spreadsheet (or someone else can help me with that). I can buy some Episode IX merch, and whoever gets closest to the domestic and international numbers I could mail it to them or something. I thought about just bragging rights but I think actual prizes would be sort of fun! (unless for some reason that goes against any rules we have on the site)

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adywan said:

Valheru_84 said:

I think you just nailed it perfectly Dre with “cinematic inbreeding” being the most efficiently accurate way of explaining the ST’s constant borrowing and repurposing of the OT along with a near constant appeal to nostalgia in so much that the latest trailer uses pretty much half of its runtime for actual OT and PT footage with the OT footage itself making up around a third of the total runtime.

So a 9 film saga trailer (even though its more of a sizzle reel exclusively for D23), that shows clips from the films in release order (ending with new clips from Ep9) , uses a third of its runtime to show the OT (3 films out of 9 turns out to be a third 😉 ) and this is supposed to show how Disney is constantly trying to appeal to nostalgia?

I think the fact that they’re showing footage from the previous films in the trailer is supposed to be inspired from the second trailer for Avengers: Endgame before it released in theaters.

Adywan’s Star Wars Revisited edits are to Blade Runner: The Final Cut as the original theatrical releases of the original trilogy are to the original version of Blade Runner.

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I guess $1 more than DrDre.

PM me for links to my edits; apparently, some feel shy about this.

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Now Dre just has to actually make a prediction!

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Alright, I’ll bite.

650m domestic, 875m international. 1.525 billion worldwide.

a trolling bantha

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ChainsawAsh said:

Alright, I’ll bite.

650m domestic, 875m international. 1.525 billion worldwide.

My guess: 649,999,999 domestic, 874,999,999 international, and 1,524,999,999 worldwide.

What can I say; I want to win!

PM me for links to my edits; apparently, some feel shy about this.

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ChainsawAsh said:

Alright, I’ll bite.

650m domestic, 875m international. 1.525 billion worldwide.

I’d up the domestic but lower the international. Keep worldwide about the same, maybe lower.

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DominicCobb said:

ChainsawAsh said:

Alright, I’ll bite.

650m domestic, 875m international. 1.525 billion worldwide.

I’d up the domestic but lower the international. Keep worldwide about the same, maybe lower.

Domestic 540m, international 660m, total 1.2b.

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You are a bold one, General Kenobi!

I think it’s interesting how people are guessing at the domestic/international split. Star Wars has never really been a series that goes much over 60% international, and I don’t think that even if Rise of Skywalker ends up being a near perfect film that has astounding word of mouth, that it’ll do much more than a 50/50 split. I think I’m predicting closer to 55/45 in the domestic direction? But I think that domestic turn-out is going to be really, really big.

Star Wars has always been more a North American phenomenon than an international one, and as the box-office markets have exploded in the last 20 years, that has only gotten more true.

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I love all this leading up to a Star Wars movie with all the hype, anticipation, theorizing, and predicting. Fun times!

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‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’: The Pessimistic Box Office Prediction

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/09/19/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalkerthe-pessimistic-box-office-prediction/#b8e5eab5863f

‘Star Wars: The Rise Of Skywalker’: The Optimistic Box Office Prediction

https://www.forbes.com/sites/scottmendelson/2019/09/20/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-optimistic-box-office-avengers-endgame-jj-abrams-last-jedi-force-awakens-disney-lion-king-harry-potter-twilight-hobbit/#7cb304e557c1

“For reference, the “worst case scenario” guestimate ($770 million) and the “best case scenario” guestimate ($1.684 billion) averages out to around $1.227 billion worldwide. That would also average out to around $614 million domestic, or right between Incredibles 2 ($609 million) and The Last Jedi ($620 million). There’s a lot of wiggle room between Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($1.1 billion) and Jurassic World ($1.671 billion), and yes it’s a little insane that we’re discussing any movie as “still being okay” if it “only” cracks $1.2 billion global, but that’s Star Wars for you, at least one last time before it becomes just another IP in a sea of IP. Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker opens three months from today. Place your bets…”