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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 22

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It seems as if the entire forum members have gone into depression, some waving their white flags at Disney, others in denial about how they really want to love and accept this trilogy, and others just outright planning an armada against The Mouse.

Well, predicition for WW is about $180m I guess.

this post has been edited.

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I’m a denial one right now, I guess.

Well done. I will disengage self-destruct initiative.

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I love The Rise of Skywalker. I was deeply moved several times while watching it. I love the action and how much it adds to the Star Wars universe. I can’t wait to own it.

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I just wish the movie ended slightly differently! I’m seeing it again tonight and then again on Thursday to try and solidify my opinion of it

TPM ROTJ ESB TFA TLJ TROS ROTS ANH SOLO RO ATOC
TFA:R https://originaltrilogy.com/topic/TFA-A-Gentle-Restructure-Released/id/50117
TLJ:R https://originaltrilogy.com/topic/The-Last-Jedi-Rekindled-Released-V3-UPDATE/id/61939
TROS:A https://originaltrilogy.com/topic/The-Rise-of-Skywalker-Ascendant-WIP/id/71835/page/1

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Dat_SW_Guy said:

It seems as if the entire forum members have gone into depression, some waving their white flags at Disney, others in denial about how they really want to love and accept this trilogy, and others just outright planning an armada against The Mouse.

Well, predicition for WW is about $180m I guess.

Not surprising in some ways as you have three distinct eras of filming this saga. Late 70’s to early 80’s, Late 90’s to early 2000’s and mid to late 2010’s. Technology has had distinct influence on how each eras filmed looked along with the change of how Hollywood makes them. With the consolidation of companies owning them. I see a wee bit of the change we now see in the blockbuster even as far back as ROTJ.

My point, of course, is that each era has it’s defenders and critics. With that in mind I would be amazed if everyone got along. Somewhere along the line people stopped just going to movies to have fun but to compare it to the one era they enjoy the most. IMO of course.

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Still almost 200mil to go before they break even. I guess we’ll have to see if there’s more interest between now and January 1st.

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Worldwide, right? It’s been out since Thursday then.

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It’s at $433 million worldwide after 5 days (207 domestic compared to 262 for TLJ), which often translates to about half of the total box office, so I expect it will not break the 1 billion dollar mark, and will end up with a total box office of 900 - 1000 million dollars.

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It’s been a week already: movies are released in theaters on wednesdays in France (and other parts of Europe I think)

Han: Hey Lando! You kept your promise, right? Not a scratch?
Lando: Well, what’s left of her isn’t scratched. All the scratched parts got knocked off along the way.
Han (exasperated): Knocked off?!

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 (Edited)

Dec 20 - Friday - $89,615,288
Dec 21 - Saturday - $47,467,565
Dec 22 - Sunday - $40,301,011
Dec 23 - Monday - $29,389,847

= $206,773,711 domestic total

$226,766,916 international total

= $433,540,627 worldwide total

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Rodney-2187 said:

Dec 20 - Friday - $89,615,288
Dec 21 - Saturday - $47,467,565
Dec 22 - Sunday - $40,301,011
Dec 23 - Monday - $29,389,847

= $206,773,711 domestic total

$226,766,916 international total

= $433,540,627 worldwide total

According to Wikipedia it’s actually at $516 million worldwide now. I guess they’re already factoring in estimates for Christmas Day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Budu1ux09Rs

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Here’s a figure for the cumulative box office of the Star Wars films up till Solo:

This chart shows that for modern day films roughly 2/3 of the total box office is made in the first 10 days, and about 50% in the first 5/6 days, also explaining why it is uncertain TROS will break 1 billion, and why it is highly unlikely it will approach TLJ. TROS had a little extra boost (10-15 million) from the holidays compared to TLJ, which was released a few days earlier. After 6 days TROS is at 257 million domestic (20-25 Dec), compared to 279 million for TLJ (15-20 Dec).

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Dre you were also one of the closest to the mark with your opening weekend prediction, it’s been great seeing more now accepting the numbers you’ve always stuck by after so much push back just a few months ago.

“The ability to destroy a planet is insignificant next to the power of the Force.” - DV

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What’s your current domestic estimate, Dr. Dre?

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At this point it’s looking very slow, and it seems like TROS made in a week what TLJ made in a weekend. One more holiday weekend will be the test.

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Maaga said:

What’s your current domestic estimate, Dr. Dre?

I would say somewhere 450-550 million.

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2nd Weekend is looking to land somewhere around 75-76mil.

With that sort of turnout for the 2nd weekend, chances are pretty good this stops around Rogue One’s total. Whether its more or less depends a lot on that 3rd weekend drop, and if the weekdays hold somewhat steady, or continue to decline. (It’s also possible the actuals for this weekend are lower than 75-76… today’s totals seem to be DECLINING from yesterday’s. Which is a very bad sign)

it’s been great seeing more now accepting the numbers you’ve always stuck by

As one who pushed back on those numbers, I still don’t think the pushback was out of bounds. Anticipation WAS higher for the film than those numbers were suggesting right up until the first reviews started dropping, and only started to settle in around those numbers after it became clear to general audiences that the quality of the film wasn’t up to the modern era’s standards (whose low point was Solo and whose high point was The Last Jedi).

The numbers as posted earlier in the thread were, I think it’s safe to say, crafted with the assumption the film wasn’t going to be the worst reviewed film Star Wars film in the last 20 years. Had this film delivered on the promises made in either TFA or TLJ (or optimally, both, which wasn’t impossible, btw) I don’t think those numbers would have borne out as accurate. It took the movie being a giant mess for those numbers to finally fit.

Also - looking at international numbers, I should specify: Barring a further fall-off in audience engagement, “Stopping around Rogue One’s total” refers to domestic. It’s still pretty possible it doesn’t make a billion worldwide as international audiences aren’t responding very well either.

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For reference:

Rogue One TLJ TRoS
day 1 $71,094,394 $104,684,491 $89,615,288
day 2 $46,308,115 $63,993,205 $47,467,565
day 3 $37,679,172 $51,331,888 $40,301,011
day 4 $17,596,150 $21,556,373 $29,389,847
day 5 $17,582,978 $20,254,189 $20,270,474
day 6 $14,965,790 $16,889,863 $32,165,681
day 7 $16,773,075 $17,892,347 $30,586,950
day 8 $22,860,256 $24,763,084 $26,234,000
day 9 $15,308,508 $29,172,415
day 10 $25,865,004 $17,629,999
day 11 $32,085,637 $27,459,557
day 12 $22,515,612 $27,734,356
day 13 $18,021,482 $21,846,132
day 14 $16,722,532 $19,490,329
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It’s more or less broken even (depending on whether budget shown is accurate) so they have those days to actually make money now.

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Mocata said:

It’s more or less broken even (depending on whether budget shown is accurate) so they have those days to actually make money now.

They are not really even. TLJ had its holiday boost in week 2, when interest in the film was already past its peak. TROS had its holiday boost at peak interest, but I suspect it will be down hill from now on, and I speculate it will drop faster than TLJ.

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Money taken double budget = breaking even.

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Mocata said:

Money taken double budget = breaking even.

Sorry, misunderstood your post.