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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 14

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I’m going to change my prediction to 300mil opening, 800mil domestic, and 1.7 billion worldwide

Green is not a creative color

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V.I.N.Cent said:

RogueLeader said:

How should we handle situations where people bet the same numbers? Say if I do three prizes for opening, domestic, and worldwide, but two people got the right numbers for the opening (ie, $240M)? If it is a tie like that, maybe the tiebreaker can be whoever got the closer domestic/worldwide numbers.

You are far too kind and generous, RL. If in the unlikely event I did win any of the categories, please send any prize to your local hospital or favored charity of choice.

That is very thoughtful of you! I’ll be more than happy to do that.

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^ The same for me RogueLeader - and thank you as well 😃

 

I forgot to include an opening figure for TROS, so will opt for $260 million

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Broom Kid said:

The idea that this last Star Wars movie won’t crack a billion worldwide seems pretty far-fetched to me.

https://www.cheatsheet.com/entertainment/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-actor-admits-the-movie-refuses-to-answer-all-your-questions.html/

I can understand that line of thought but the majority of the audience doesn’t care either way and the people who have been adamant about boycotting it have only become more emboldened as time has gone on and information has leaked out. I honestly don’t see a way that this movie doesn’t upset a large amount of fans one way or another. Only time will tell though.

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I’ll go with a $250m opening weekend.

and will echo what Force-Abel & VINCent said too; quality work Rodney-2187, and generosity RogueLeader 😃
 

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

I find that answer vague and unconvincing. Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves?
Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? And say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

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voltwaffle said:
the people who have been adamant about boycotting it have only become more emboldened as time has gone on and information has leaked out. I honestly don’t see a way that this movie doesn’t upset a large amount of fans one way or another. Only time will tell though.

Star Wars fandom is a very small percentage of the general audience, and the percentage of that fandom who is adamant about boycotting is a tiny fraction of THAT already small percentage. The fandom is a reliable source of income despite whatever protestations or threats they might make, but that income total isn’t very high compared to the general audience whose investment in “fandom” basically starts and stops with “I like Star Wars, this looks good, I’ll buy a ticket.” The number of people who never even CONSIDER going online to join a forum, or a facebook group, or find themselves following hashtags on social media, etc. - that number VASTLY dwarfs the number of people who consider themselves part of Star Wars Fandom.

All this movie has to do is look entertaining enough to appeal to everyone who isn’t part of that fandom, but does generally like Star Wars. If it does a good enough job of that, the praises and complaints from Star Wars fandom won’t much matter, because the people who comprise the much larger dollar amounts being chased after wouldn’t even think to check in with that fandom to see what they might have to say. It wouldn’t even occur to them. They’re not there as part of a fandom exercise. They’re there to enjoy a movie.

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Broom Kid said:
Star Wars fandom is a very small percentage of the general audience, and the percentage of that fandom who is adamant about boycotting is a tiny fraction of THAT already small percentage.

If we’re going to be throwing the word percentage around it should come with a rough number and not just some vague idea of percentages. We don’t know how many even of the general audience also wouldn’t be going, that’s making the same mistake made with the fandom that they’d show up for any new release. We can only speculate until the facts roll in.

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Alright, I’ll throw in my guess.

Domestic opening weekend: $200mil
Domestic total: $700mil
Worldwide total: $1.4bil

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act on instinct said:

If we’re going to be throwing the word percentage around it should come with a rough number and not just some vague idea of percentages.

1.3 billion movie tickets were sold in North America 2018.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/187073/tickets-sold-at-the-north-american-box-office-since-1980/

That’s a decent representation of the General Audience’s potential. That obviously doesn’t mean 1.3 billion people separately bought one ticket to one movie, obviously. Most adults do only go to the movie once a year or less, but a good number of adults do go about once a month, and a small percentage goes more than once a month.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/264396/frequency-of-going-to-the-movies-in-the-us/

So if we wanted to roughly ball-park how big the general audience probably is… I guess you could go with the idea that about 500 million people is a decent-enough figure. That’s the 40% of the moviegoing audience who says they go occasionally. That seems like a lot still, since the total population for all of North America is 580 million, but then again, going to the movies is a pretty big cultural thing still, even as attendance has declined and ticket prices go up. People DO still go to the movies, they just go a lot less frequently than they used to. So when people say “The general audience,” we’re basically talking about 500 million folks. Give or take 50 million maybe (shrug).

Let’s use The Force Awakens release year for the next example. in 2015, the total box-office in dollars was 11 billion. The Force Awakens accounted for 936 million of that.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/187069/north-american-box-office-gross-revenue-since-1980/

So Star Wars at its most popular on the box-office, accounted for 8.5% of the industry’s total revenue in North America that year. That’s pretty crazy.

Anyway, you get the picture - fandom as we understand it, the collection of people who dedicate large chunks of their lives to making “I like a movie” into a legitimate hobby that includes going out of your way to converse with total strangers online on a daily basis and/or spending hundreds if not thousands of dollars on associated merchandise annually (or attenting conventions dedicated to that fandom), is by any account, a tiny slice of an already smaller slice of a very large pie. Even when the slice in question is Star Wars, and even when Star Wars is doing its best at appealing to the widest possible audience, you’re looking at concentric, shrinking circles of relevance until you arrive at the very loud, very noisy, but not very meaningful concentrated dot that is fandom.

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User Opening Domestic Worldwide
Ryan-SWI $130M $350M $750M
Cthulhunicron $850M
voltwaffle $144M $400M $860M
DrDre $180M $540M $1.2B
yotsuya $240M $630M $1.4B
act on instinct $217M $645M $1.3B
ChainsawAsh $225M $650M $1.525B
oojason $250M $685M $1.65B
DominicCobb $200M $700M $1.4B
Broom Kid $220M $735M $1.4B
mykyta-R4 $255M $740M $1.75B
Outboundflight $750M $1.625B
Rodney-2187 $230M $750M $1.5B
Force-Abel $260M $770M $1.7B
V.I.N.Cent $245M $790M $1.7B
dgraham414 $300M $800M $1.7B
JawsTDS $290M $820M $2.1B
Omni $859M $1.8B
klawrence123 $260M $870M $1.8B
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A $255 million guess for the opening weekend for me.
Thankyou.

R4

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It’ll probably change.

For comparison’s sake, here are Deadline’s tracking articles for the previous entries:

$185-210m - The Force Awakens
https://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/

$200m - The Last Jedi
https://deadline.com/2017/11/star-wars-the-last-jedi-200-million-opening-1202213679/

$205m - The Rise of Skywalker
https://deadline.com/2019/11/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-projection-reasons-why-1202796194/

The tracking numbers usually go up closer to release, but then again, tracking numbers are kind of… weird. It’s been written about multiple times that tracking past a certain point is basically magical guesswork because it’s hard to really plot what a movie might make in its opening weekend when the numbers get that large. $185-200 in 2015 was considered a HUGE bet - and yet the movie hit 249. Last Jedi ended up being $20m over its first projection.

Plus, the primary utility for tracking seems to be figuring out a way to add another hurdle for a movie to clear before it can be considered a “win.” It’s not enough that it makes a certain number now, because if that specific number is under whatever this TRACKING number is, that tracking is going to be held against it. It’s how you end up with movies almost doubling their budget in three days getting labeled as “a disappointment,” because industry insiders (who have admitted they’re not great at guessing these huge numbers) stuck an estimate on the film’s earning potential pre-release and the actual money that came in didn’t hit that.

Tracking is literally a set of goalposts that move behind the regular goalpost.

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Regardless of the tracking numbers, one thing that’s important to note is that the film comes out Dec 20, and Christmas is that Wednesday. Which means that for TROS, it won’t be an opening weekend so much as an opening week, where the business is a bit more spread out. TFA opened on a similar weekend and look at that opening/daily box office/final tally vs. Avengers: Endgame, for instance. That’s why you’ll see my opening prediction is a lot more conservative than my total prediction.

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That’s a really good point to keep in mind - the legs on this are going to be better than The Last Jedi’s whether it’s a better movie or not simply because of the calendar, and the placement of this film’s opening on that calendar.

And if this ends up being a film that’s more liked than The Last Jedi was, and the positive word of mouth is higher and louder, then those legs will be even longer. There’s a point at which the length of a run becomes self-marketing in and of itself, too. That sort of happened on The Force Awakens, but the best examples are still Avatar and Titanic. There were points in January and February of the following year where business was unprecedented because… business was unprecedented!

You want your movie to be in a position where its success becomes tautological, haha

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Well this is exciting! Ultimately the answer to the question, what’s the collateral damage actually? I have a friend who doesn’t want to go but I could probably convince him, and there is that fresh holiday spirit, as time goes on I think even the haters are a bit less boycott and more why not, and why not? So the release date is prime real estate, right in the pocket, Solo was said in retrospect to have had a bad release date so now I think it’s a great way to see the conclusion of the experiment. That is, until the next thing I guess…

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It seemed like they wanted to get back towards that traditional SW Memorial Day weekend, but the weird thing was, by the time Solo came out, that just felt so wrong. After three Christmases in a row with an SW film, to me at least it kind of felt like that’s where it always belonged, almost like how could you release a SW film at anytime other than Christmas? In the summer it’s just another in the sea of blockbusters, but in December it really stands out as an event. And as a family friendly franchise, it pairs nicely with the home for the holidays holiday. I haven’t made it to a big family Christmas party in years, but when TFA came out it was a big topic of discussion at my family’s get together. That sort of thing really helps with the overall hype and BO performance.

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If they already sort of want to see it, I expect word of mouth to be pretty measured so I wonder if the end will resonate half as well as it did at the beginning. That’s what I mean I think all the conditions are fair for that viewpoint, okay it’s an episode, and the last of the saga and last of this current trilogy on christmas, now if people don’t see it, they just really didn’t care to see it.

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My guess is, aside from the haters online, the word of mouth from even people who don’t like it will be “you should still see it anyway.” It’s the finale, and they’re going balls out, which will be an enticing curiosity even to those who haven’t liked the last two. The war is really more to grab the attention of the general populace who enjoy SW but maybe haven’t necessarily seen every SW film, and haven’t really thought about the series much since they saw TLJ or TFA in theaters.

There’s basically zero chance it will touch TFA numbers but also anyone who thinks it could is crazy. That hype will never again be topped in this franchise.

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DominicCobb said:

My guess is, aside from the haters online

The Mandalorian & Jedi: Fallen Order show us there are no “haters”, only Star Wars Fans
https://youtu.be/OJ_tFpJy1Uk

DominicCobb said:
It’s the finale, and they’re going balls out, which will be an enticing curiosity even to those who haven’t liked the last two.

Care less I could not about seeing TROS in cinema. Free to air TV will be fine, it is not the movie I am looking forward to but watch it once I will to see how the Disney trilogy concludes and then promptly try to forget about it.

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DominicCobb said:

My guess is, aside from the haters online, the word of mouth from even people who don’t like it will be “you should still see it anyway.” It’s the finale, and they’re going balls out, which will be an enticing curiosity even to those who haven’t liked the last two. The war is really more to grab the attention of the general populace who enjoy SW but maybe haven’t necessarily seen every SW film, and haven’t really thought about the series much since they saw TLJ or TFA in theaters.

Indeed this… it will likely be a sort of ‘event movie’ for many - ‘the last film in the Saga’. Even those who’ve seen some Star Wars films before yet don’t consider themselves ‘fans’ will likely go see it on the big screen for the experience (to talk about it on social media, at work, with family and friends etc).

Even the small yet vocal number of online hate providers will go see it to bash on it - got to get those clicks, subscribers and sustain the business model of online hate enabled by the algorithm - afterall there’ll be no SW films to hate on or be offended about for a while after this 😉
 

(I’m somewhat expecting to see a softening of the toxicity and hate - or less prevalence of it - as many of these channels will likely focus on the current and forthcoming tv series. And given the fast moving nature of tv - where episodes aren’t often as often talked about after the following episode has aired… it’ll be more difficult for some to maintain the levels of fume and hate as we have seen for the films 😃)

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

I find that answer vague and unconvincing. Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves?
Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here? And say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

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I also wonder how much people’s aversion to spoilers will play into TRoS’ box office. A significant percentage of the opening weekend audience will likely be there just so they won’t have to worry about any surprises getting ruined for them via social media posts.

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act on instinct said:

Broom Kid said:
Star Wars fandom is a very small percentage of the general audience, and the percentage of that fandom who is adamant about boycotting is a tiny fraction of THAT already small percentage.

If we’re going to be throwing the word percentage around it should come with a rough number and not just some vague idea of percentages. We don’t know how many even of the general audience also wouldn’t be going, that’s making the same mistake made with the fandom that they’d show up for any new release. We can only speculate until the facts roll in.

I’m with Broom on this one. Just going on what I see as a mod here, the vitriol and hate around here comes from the same 5 or 6 people who shit on everything Disney. They do it without seeing it, often times we’ll in advance of release, and they revel in their dislike and snarkiness. I largely ignore their posts outside of cursory looks for personal attacks.

I have no doubt they’ll boycott the film. If you want actual numbers, that’s as close as I can get. Percentage-wise, they are infinitesimal to the movie going public. Star Wars is a long-standing mega property with millions of fans, casual or nerdy. I have no doubt the film will do very well. The boycotters will still be here telling us how wrong we are.

That said; I may be off on their power. We’ll know in a month.

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

"Why are you here, Rey from nowhere?”

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I think it depends on how the groups are framed, I recognize a small number in plain old haters who are very loud and opinionated. Most cases generally I’m a lurker with the silent majority, so I think in terms of box office predictions it’s more about those in this thread who have expressed their lack of interest and how far that ripples out, rather than the high vitriol as the main culprit.