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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 13

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Broom Kid said:

As time has gone on, and the number of movies I’ve watched has grown exponentially, I’ve found that i’d much rather a movie be good than be “new.” Movies taking chances and failing are still unpleasant to watch, even if the intentions were noble.

and that’s probably the line in the sand, I just feel the exact opposite here.

I also just don’t want to discount Lucas himself, however much credit you want to give him he did now famously complain that TFA didn’t try enough to be new. I understand you may not hold the new films to this responsibility, nor hold an essentially bitter jilted ex’s sour grapes about a franchise he sold off in highest esteem, to invoke some others with credentials for what it’s worth this opinion also is shared by those from James Cameron to Simon Pegg who has even personally worked with JJ, granted you’re entitled to feel differently about the direction but it’s not an unfounded expectation that each trilogy was supposed to be spectacle with each their own distinct “wow” factor. Granted not an easy task to live up to and even to sympathize with the studios, why take the risk?

Broom Kid said:
I think placing the burden of “the new” on Star Wars as a primary motivating factor for watching it is only complicating many people’s ability to enjoy the films for what they’re individually trying to be.

My want for the new is motivated to serve exactly that purpose, I want the new films to be individual, the want to strive to push further and be better and exceed boundaries to me is within the bones of the message of Star Wars, your mileage may vary and I understand what you mean by vague messaging stacking the deck so the ST will never win, but I think that’s again all the more reason actually not to compete with the usual fair or the past and instead win on its own terms and be its own.

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DominicCobb said:
You’re absolutely right that Lucas always tried to push the boundaries of what’s possible on Star Wars, and that isn’t really happening post-Lucas (besides Tarkin/Leia in Rogue One). It’s basically the reason he complained about them, according to Iger’s biography. From my perspective, though, it’s kind of a ‘who cares?’ sort of thing.

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I don’t consider myself a “hardcore” fan but to my friends and family I’m sure I appear so. At this point I dont care about Star Wars from a franchise perspective (and I don’t think I ever really did) but simply that I love the unaltered OT, greatly enjoy much of the PT and parts of the original EU as I start to try some of it out in a search for new Star Wars content that lines up with what feels like the Star Wars I know and grew up with.

I was never a blind consumer of all and everything simply branded Star Wars and as such had never even looked at the EU until after the utter disappointment of TLJ and the ST in general. To this day I have tried and cannot get into the Clone Wars series.

So call me what you will in regards to my level of fan commitment to Star Wars but I will not be seeing TROS in cinemas and The Mandalorian has and will have no impact on changing that stance which is strictly down to my views and experiences with the ST itself.

That’s not to say I’m anti all Disney Star Wars but I am very sceptical at this point. I won’t ever watch Solo but love Rogue One and I want to enjoy the Mandalorian for what appears to be a solid return to the look, feel and quality that I associate with my loved OT and simply hope I’m not reminded to often or strongly of the ST when watching it.

I do believe as well that both The Mandalorian and Kenobi series are repurposed preproductions of the anthology films they were meant to be before Iger put them and all further ones on ice. This was just recently confirmed for Kenobi which will be a 6 episode mini series “retooled” from a feature film and I think the retooling is true as well for the Mandalorian from a Boba Fett feature film.

I haven’t seen it specifically mentioned on here yet either but Iger was quoted a couple of days ago that all future Star Wars films after TROS are “going on hiatus”. I don’t know what that means for the Star Wars movie that Kevin Feige was apparently lined up to be working on for I think a 2021 release (I guess it’s off?) but if that’s final confirmation that Johnson has lost his trilogy then it’s good news for my ears 😃 (and Ill be the first to tell you I was originally very interested in his trilogy ideas before TLJ).

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If the new movies don’t do anything original, it’s honestly just difficult for me to feel any interest in them. The ST movies are fairly competent so far, but to me they’re merely “okay.” If they put out episode 10 and it’s new rebels vs new empire, and they have to blow up an even bigger Death Star, I really don’t know how to get excited about that.

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The “hiatus” is not a recent development. All that means is that the next Star Wars film won’t be for a few years - 3, to be precise - rather than the one a year we’ve seen since 2015. The next film will be Dec. 2022. This was confirmed earlier this year. They’ve yet to announce who’s making it.

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Always in motion, is the future. I expect plans to change depending on how audiences respond, it’s all concept until it’s out. Studios generally aren’t very good at planning ahead, all cautiously about the next move. This franchise business and nu-marketing strategy of “phases” and “cinematic universes” is a gamble, they throw out that slide with a decade of projections, it’s all just smoke and mirrors until it’s made, and this administration studio has unarguably had a bit of a revolving door of creatives being shuffled in and out, with possibly just as many projects canned as have been announced (haven’t done the math, not sure if that checks out) or end up being restructured.

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act on instinct said:

Always in motion, is the future. I expect plans to change depending on how audiences respond, it’s all concept until it’s out. Studios generally aren’t very good at planning ahead, all cautiously about the next move. This franchise business and nu-marketing strategy of “phases” and “cinematic universes” is a gamble, they throw out that slide with a decade of projections, it’s all just smoke and mirrors until it’s made, and this administration studio has unarguably had a bit of a revolving door of creatives being shuffled in and out, with possibly just as many projects canned as have been announced (haven’t done the math, not sure if that checks out) or end up being restructured.

Out of curiosity I kind of want to layout creatives that have been involved with projects, and which projects were canned or heavily restructured.

COMPLETED
The Force Awakens - JJ Abrams and Co-Writer Larry Kasdan
Michael Ardnt also got writing credit, but he left the project after he couldn’t deliver a final script in their timeframe.
Rogue One - Gareth Edwards, Story Gary Whitta and John Knoll, Screenplay Chris Weitz and Tony Gilroy
Tony Gilroy replaced Gareth for extensive reshoots and the film was heavily restructured. It seems early cuts were just not what they had envisioned, but did not have any issues with Edwards himself.
The Last Jedi - Rian Johnson
Ironically to some fans, I’m sure, the film project with the least behind-the-scenes drama.
Solo - Ron Howard, Writers Lawrence and Jon Kasdan
Ron replaced Phil Lord and Chris Miller as director and the film had extensive reshoots due what was reported as a very improv approach with their direction.
The Rise of Skywalker - JJ Abrams and Writer Chris Terrio
Abrams and Chris Terrio replaced Colin Trevorrow and Derek Connoly as director and co-writer respectively. Reported reasons vary from drama with Trevorrow, backlash from his film Book of Henry, and Colin not being able to rework his script after Carrie Fisher passed away.
The Mandalorian - Jon Favreau & Dave Filoni
No reported issues that I’m aware of during production.

KNOWN FUTURE PROJECTS
Cassian Andor Disney+ Series - Showrunner Stephen Schiff, Co-writer & director Tony Gilroy
Seems to be moving forward but no recent news or projected release date.
Kenobi Disney+ Series - Director Deborah Chow, Writer Hossein Amini
Set to release 2020.
[note: apparently Disney is planning to focus on new Disney+ series in the coming years, so we may hear of more rumors or pitches in the future.]
Rian Johnson film trilogy - Still in early-stages of development with no known release date.
Kevin Feige film project - Also in early-development stages with no projected release date.

SCRAPPED PROJECTS
Boba Fett Standalone Film - Director Josh Trank
Cancelled after Trank’s Fan4stic debacle and other personal issues.
Kenobi Film - Director Stephen Daldry, Writer Hossein Amini
This seems to have been cancelled and adapted as a series due to Solo flopping, no issue with the director or writer.
Mos Eisley Cantina Film - * Rumored Director* James Mangold
Making Star Wars reported this film had studio space reserved for it at Pinewood. It also was apparently scrapped after Solo flopped.
Potential Solo Sequels - This may have only been a hope for Jon Kasdan and never officially planned.
Benioff and Weiss film trilogy/series - Benioff and Weiss reportedly left the project due to their deal with Netflix, but it is possible Lucasfilm had lost interest due to Game of Thrones backlash.

Let me know if I have made any errors or left anything out.

EDIT: The “hiatus” state of the Feige and Johnson film projects has been moved into “Known Future Projects”.

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I think classifying both Feige and Johnson’s projects as “on hold” isn’t really accurate. Both are in very early stages of development, with go-aheads still to be determined.

Further, describing Johnson’s project as “has not been officially canceled” seems a little weird to me. It implies there’s an unofficial cancellation that we’re not talking about.

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Okay so maybe say “IN DEVELOPMENT” instead of “on hold”?

I thought I would mention it since that gets brought up regularly, but I can delete that comment.

Have edited the comment.

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Yeah, in development is more accurate than “on hold” I think. Thanks!

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When you see it all laid out like that it kinda just looks like the normal push and pull of a production company. Can’t help but wonder if it seems more exaggerated because people are paying such close attention to any Star Wars related development and reporting on everything (rather than many companies where most projects end up never getting made or heard about).

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And because they’re announcing these deals up front as soon as they’re made on paper, rather than waiting to see whether they actually go through to production or not.

“That Darth Vader, man. Sure does love eating Jedi.”

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People are going to make a big spin out of any time a studio cancels a project when they’re all lined out ahead of time like this. I don’t think it’s such a mark against Star Wars, more proof just in general to take those predetermined timelines with a grain of salt. It will happen again, I’ve also included this unrelated picture.

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Cthulhunicron said:

If the new movies don’t do anything original, it’s honestly just difficult for me to feel any interest in them. The ST movies are fairly competent so far, but to me they’re merely “okay.” If they put out episode 10 and it’s new rebels vs new empire, and they have to blow up an even bigger Death Star, I really don’t know how to get excited about that.

Pretty much the reason I gave up on DisWars, and I truly don’t understand how anybody can get invested in a worse version of the original trilogy, but whatever.

Back when Solo was about to hit theaters, and during, I was on the box office thread stating that it’d flop and that it is currently flopping, but I had a half dozen users calling me “wrong” and that the film was “going strong” and that it was “too early” to call that. Those comments aged like milk.

I think TROS will make money but I honestly don’t know if it’ll clear a billion. I don’t think a lot of DisWars fans realize how apathetic people have become to the brand. I’ve heard every excuse in the book but numbers don’t lie, and the brand is making less than it ever has. I would’ve said it was impossible a few years ago, but a few years ago if you’d told someone a live action Star Wars movie would lose hundreds of millions at the box office they’d laugh in your face, and yet here we are. The brand has been utterly run into the ground.

I’m sure opening weekend will be strong when all the fans rush out to see it, but the second week will be the most telling. I could very well be proven wrong and I’ll eat my words if I am, but it’s entirely possible we’ll have another box office performance like BvS or Justice League.

Regardless, the one thing for certain is that if it doesn’t clear a billion executive heads will roll like they never have before.

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Yeah, I doubt this will make a billion dollars. Maybe $850 million or something like that.

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User Opening Domestic Worldwide
Ryan-SWI $130M $350M $750M
Cthulhunicron $850M
voltwaffle $144M $400M $860M
DrDre $180M $540M $1.2B
dgraham414 $230M $600M $1.2B
yotsuya $240M $630M $1.4B
act on instinct $240M $645M $1.3B
ChainsawAsh $225M $650M $1.525B
oojason $250M $685M $1.65B
Broom Kid $220M $735M $1.4B
mykyta-R4 $740M $1.75B
Outboundflight $750M $1.625B
Rodney-2187 $230M $750M $1.5B
Force-Abel $260M $770M $1.7B
V.I.N.Cent $245M $790M $1.7B
JawsTDS $290M $820M $2.1B
Omni $859M $1.8B
klawrence123 $260M $870M $1.8B
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How should we handle situations where people bet the same numbers? Say if I do three prizes for opening, domestic, and worldwide, but two people got the right numbers for the opening (ie, $240M)? If it is a tie like that, maybe the tiebreaker can be whoever got the closer domestic/worldwide numbers.

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Oh, I didn’t give an opening weekend estimate? Put me down for $225M.

a trolling bantha

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I’m gonna chip in with the lowest and say a worldwide total of $750 million, with a domestic total of $350 million and an opening weekend of $130 million.

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When the R rated Joker movie breaks 1 billion I personally can’t picture TROS won’t make it too.

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act on instinct said:

When the R rated Joker movie breaks 1 billion I personally can’t picture TROS won’t make it too.

There is nothing remotely comparable about the two films.

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The FILMS don’t have to be comparable at all, because box-office and quality are only tangentially related.

What IS comparable are branding, brand loyalty, brand awareness, marketing strengths, marketing strategies, nostalgia levels, and pop-cultural prestige.

The idea that this last Star Wars movie won’t crack a billion worldwide seems pretty far-fetched to me.

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Please put me down for $245 million for the opening weekend, Rodney-2187.

 

RogueLeader said:

How should we handle situations where people bet the same numbers? Say if I do three prizes for opening, domestic, and worldwide, but two people got the right numbers for the opening (ie, $240M)? If it is a tie like that, maybe the tiebreaker can be whoever got the closer domestic/worldwide numbers.

You are far too kind and generous, RL. If in the unlikely event I did win any of the categories, please send any prize to your local hospital or favored charity of choice.

50 Cent is just an imposter