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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 12

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Jay said:

DominicCobb said:

ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

For me, skipping TRoS is an easy choice because I didn’t like TFA all that much and I liked TLJ even less; any movie by J.J. that has to clean up after Rian is unlikely to interest me either.

To your point, Mandalorian is its own thing and enjoying it wouldn’t affect my decision to stay home for TRoS (just like my dislike for TFA/TLJ won’t stop me from checking out Mandalorian). I’m sure there’s a small minority of fans who are just done with all Star Wars at this point and will skip all Disney SW, but…

Creox said:

I’ve been reading and listening to hardcore SW fans for 40 years. I know that most that talk about not seeing a SW movie or TV, book series are blowing smoke. When the product is released, they get it, watch it.

My point with regards to that quote is this. Any one who is a member of this site and posts on it fairly regularly as many of you do are obviously fans of this franchise. TROS is the last to showcase two of the last OT actors and even if a person is upset with the direction the ST has gone is likely still interested or curious about how the saga ends. We are talking about a grand total expense of a movie ticket. Not like people are giving their left nut to go see this flic.

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Get those predictions in!

User Opening Domestic Worldwide
voltwaffle $144M $400M $860M
DrDre $180M $540M $1.2B
dgraham414 $230M $600M $1.2B
yotsuya $240M $630M $1.4B
act on instinct $240M $645M $1.3B
ChainsawAsh $650M $1.525B
oojason $685M $1.65B
Broom Kid $220M $735M $1.4B
mykyta-R4 $740M $1.75B
Outboundflight $750M $1.625B
Rodney-2187 $230M $750M $1.5B
Force-Abel $770M $1.7B
V.I.N.Cent $790M $1.7B
JawsTDS $290M $820M $2.1B
Omni $859M $1.8B
klawrence123 $260M $870M $1.8B
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Creox said:

Jay said:

DominicCobb said:

ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

For me, skipping TRoS is an easy choice because I didn’t like TFA all that much and I liked TLJ even less; any movie by J.J. that has to clean up after Rian is unlikely to interest me either.

To your point, Mandalorian is its own thing and enjoying it wouldn’t affect my decision to stay home for TRoS (just like my dislike for TFA/TLJ won’t stop me from checking out Mandalorian). I’m sure there’s a small minority of fans who are just done with all Star Wars at this point and will skip all Disney SW, but…

Creox said:

I’ve been reading and listening to hardcore SW fans for 40 years. I know that most that talk about not seeing a SW movie or TV, book series are blowing smoke. When the product is released, they get it, watch it.

My point with regards to that quote is this. Any one who is a member of this site and posts on it fairly regularly as many of you do are obviously fans of this franchise. TROS is the last to showcase two of the last OT actors and even if a person is upset with the direction the ST has gone is likely still interested or curious about how the saga ends. We are talking about a grand total expense of a movie ticket. Not like people are giving their left nut to go see this flic.

Like I said, I was content to wait until TLJ hit streaming and I’m planning to do the same with TRoS.

If somebody who maintained a Star Wars forum for 15 years can get sick of/bored by/frustrated with the ST enough not to bother, I’m sure there are one or two others.

originaltrilogy.com Administrator

MTFBWY

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Jay said:

Creox said:

Jay said:

DominicCobb said:

ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

For me, skipping TRoS is an easy choice because I didn’t like TFA all that much and I liked TLJ even less; any movie by J.J. that has to clean up after Rian is unlikely to interest me either.

To your point, Mandalorian is its own thing and enjoying it wouldn’t affect my decision to stay home for TRoS (just like my dislike for TFA/TLJ won’t stop me from checking out Mandalorian). I’m sure there’s a small minority of fans who are just done with all Star Wars at this point and will skip all Disney SW, but…

Creox said:

I’ve been reading and listening to hardcore SW fans for 40 years. I know that most that talk about not seeing a SW movie or TV, book series are blowing smoke. When the product is released, they get it, watch it.

My point with regards to that quote is this. Any one who is a member of this site and posts on it fairly regularly as many of you do are obviously fans of this franchise. TROS is the last to showcase two of the last OT actors and even if a person is upset with the direction the ST has gone is likely still interested or curious about how the saga ends. We are talking about a grand total expense of a movie ticket. Not like people are giving their left nut to go see this flic.

Like I said, I was content to wait until TLJ hit streaming and I’m planning to do the same with TRoS.

If somebody who maintained a Star Wars forum for 15 years can get sick of/bored by/frustrated with the ST enough not to bother, I’m sure there are one or two others.

Fair enough and I’m sure you’re right. My particular curiosity is one of cause. I think the ST has, by and large, been superior to the PT and equal to the OT in small ways. I get why people may not like the ST but at the end of the day I think the arguments tend to veer into minutia instead of the core impact of the ST and what the story is trying to relate to the audience. I mean, its just movies we are talking about. A franchise we all love in one way or another but still just movies. I get perplexed at how much emotion these kinds of discussions can generate. I love to mix it up with un like minded folks from time to time but…really?

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I don’t think the prequels are great, but I’ve got a ticket for the nine-movie marathon and I’m going to watch them all. Star Wars is forever, but I am not, so while I’m here, I am going to take part in all of the Star Wars I can. There’s just nothing like a Star Wars event, especially the opening night of a new movie.

I wasn’t crazy about TPM or AotC, but I couldn’t wait for RotS. I just can’t imagine being at home while others are participating in the spectacle of it all.

As I said earlier, Star Wars will grow and evolve over time. There will be highs and lows, and growing pains. It’s not going to be the same as 1977. It’s a different world now. That makes those Originals even more special to me. I can still appreciate what Star Wars is for the next generation too. I can’t wait to see what comes next.

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I still like Star Wars in my own ways but the wind has definitely been taken out of my sails. I could talk about it more specifically sometime when I get the free time. I don’t want to derail this topic though.

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I think there’s something to also be said for the consistent fracturing of attention spans through unprecedented media access and entertainment options just automatically diluting potential audience excitement. There’s a reason adjusting for inflation is practically useless, and that reason only gets ever more solidified with every year we move forward. The competition for moviegoing dollars only ever gets more heated. In the 80s it was the rental market. In the 90s it was Cable. In the 00s it was the internet. And now, on the verge of heading into the 2020s, we’re literally in a space where people with a gopro and a green-screen are getting better “ratings” than network television on their own DIY YouTube channels or Twitch streams. The fact there’s an entire multi-billion dollar internet-only platform whose primary dedication is to watching other people play video games, where you can spend money you might otherwise be spending on a movie ticket for access to custom emojis that you can spam in the chat-window next to the live-stream of someone struggling through Fortnite?

We live in a very weird time with a glut of entertainment options, many of which (including most social media, which has ceased being a supplement to life, but is supplanting the actual living of it) cast YOU as the star. Movies are making more money than ever before, but they almost have to, because if they don’t, the whole industry will collapse and become part of at least 2 or 3 other industries as not much more than a bonus-feature to their primary appeal.

If, in that scenario, Star Wars isn’t as earth-shatteringly exciting and alluring to audiences, I wouldn’t be (and am not) surprised. It’s not the 80s, or even the 90s. And honestly, I don’t think it’s a bad thing.

I think the last chapter of the Skywalker Saga is going to make a ton of money (more domestic than abroad, but still) and then we’ll see as the entire market shifts and tilts in new directions to adjust for the fracturing and splintering of attention spans even further. And if Star Wars becomes a secondary (or even tertiary) concern at the box-office from that point forward, I’m pretty fine with it. Being a Star Wars fan has always sorta/kinda been like rooting for the Dallas Cowboys or the New York Yankees anyway, to be honest. It’s what’s made people act like they’re special for being a Star Wars fan seem weird, to me. “Oh, congrats, you’re a super-big fan of like, the most popular things ever made for theaters. How unique.” If people are somehow made to focus less on all the CULTURAL IMPORTANCE and BOX OFFICE SIGNIFICANCE and THE POWER OF MYTH and instead have to simply reckon with the movies AS movies, without hanging a bunch of historical weight on everything Star Wars-related… that’s not really a bad thing, I don’t think.

Anyway, I’m revising my domestic total up to $735 mil.

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Broom Kid said:
It’s what’s made people act like they’re special for being a Star Wars fan seem weird, to me. “Oh, congrats, you’re a super-big fan of like, the most popular things ever made for theaters. How unique.” If people are somehow made to focus less on all the CULTURAL IMPORTANCE and BOX OFFICE SIGNIFICANCE and THE POWER OF MYTH and instead have to simply reckon with the movies AS movies, without hanging a bunch of historical weight on everything Star Wars-related… that’s not really a bad thing, I don’t think.

It’s like a chicken vs egg conversation. Do people like Star Wars because it has cultural significance and a huge box office, or is it culturally significant and big at the box office because people like it? Probably some of both.

I like the movies themselves very much, they are my favorites. Part of that is the interaction with other fans online, at conventions, and at theaters, but that isn’t all there is to it or I wouldn’t have watched them all many times alone, but yes I’m sure nostalgia plays huge role in it all. I don’t feel the need to separate nostalgia from Star Wars to prove they measure up on some sort of objective scale, even though I do like to point out when I see parts that are especially well made. I like what I like and years from now I’ll have nostalgia for The Rise of Skywalker when I go see episode XII.

Does that make me “special?” No, but I think Star Wars is special.

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You know, back to the discussion we had about the Mandalorian’s affect on TROS, I will say this, I do feel like its proximity to TROS is sort of zapping up some of the latter’s marketing. If you look at the Star Wars website or social handles, it’s all the Mandalorian right now. Which makes sense, but TROS is coming out in a month. We aren’t really seeing that full blitz because the efforts are divided. Arguably we saw the same thing with Solo where they held off until late, simply because they wanted TLJ to have its time in the spotlight.

It kind of makes you wonder if putting out the Mandalorian a month before the new movie was a good decision (not to mention, it’ll be airing weekly up to and past the release of the film), but then Disney+ is launching in November and they need a flagship show. When you look at it that way, it’s actually reasonable to assume that Disney is putting more stock in the Mandalorian succeeding than TROS. The ST has already made Disney plenty of money and then some, so TROS is really just icing on the cake for the trilogy and Disney’s insanely successful year. More importantly, TROS is the end of that story, while Mandalorian is the launch of a show that could potentially go on for years, and the launch of a platform that will house most of the future Star Wars content (between the live action and animated shows, and, I would argue, eventually movies as well).

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I see the Mandelorian as part of their marketing for TROS. I think in the end it will excite people for the franchise. I don’t know if that will work or if it will detract, but it is a streaming service (which also has the previous films for people to binge before TROS comes out) and likely something people will continue for quite a while. TROS will be an event
(getting tickets, going out to see the film, etc.) so I don’t think we can compare how things worked with Solo because several key factors are different.

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I didn’t mean to suggest a direct comparison with Solo by any means, just a similarity. One thing that’s probably worth noting about Disney+ is that it will have every SW except TLJ, which I might say is an issue, but on the other hand the reason is because TLJ is on Netflix, which arguably is a better spot for it in regards to being accessible to watch for potential TROS audience members.

One thing I wonder is how Disney+ will handle advertising within the service. By which I mean, Netflix, like Disney+, is “ad free,” though it’s impossible to spend a second on the service without seeing an ad for a Netflix show or movie (either on the landing page or at the end of a movie/tv show). I wouldn’t be surprised if Disney+ did the same, and I also wouldn’t be too surprised if they had ads for their theatrical films as well.

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There’s talk the first episode of The Mandalorian contains a huge revelation that will impact The Rise of Skywalker, so The Mandalorian could actually boost TRoS interest. I am staying spoiler free, so I haven’t read too much about it.

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I don’t remember that anyone’s said Mandalorian’s “first episode spoiler” directly referenced The Rise Of Skywalker, just that it was a revelation that changed the way the saga is thought of. The phrasing in that article was weird in the first place, in that if it’s IN the show it’s not really a “spoiler” for anything, but frequently the meaning of words in entertainment writing are rendered meaningless. Try reading an article in the Hollywood Reporter where someone doesn’t misrepresent a direct sequel as a “reboot,” for example.

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Yeah, I saw some really stupid headlines for that (whatever ‘that’ is). “Episode One of The Mandalorian has a Huge Spoiler for the Star Wars Universe.” That doesn’t even make sense. Who the hell knows what it means. Anyway, that’s a topic for a different topic.

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Maybe Star Wars hasn’t been unique for a long time, but with an original vision (that everyone would have hated) I think it at least would have had a chance to be remembered in its own way, I now mostly hear it lumped together with the sea of other sequel reboots that all happened/are happening around the same time. After Guardians of the Galaxy I wondered how Star Wars could top it for the kids who were already getting their first kind of sci-fi adventure that way. I didn’t care for Avatar but I still am intrigued with what James Cameron will do for the sequel, I probably won’t like the story there either but I’m sure it will have more of the ambition I would have hoped from a next generation Star Wars. I think that’s why some are so excited for Dune, I remember being cautiously hopeful even for Valerian to deliver more of that lush world. For it to be a special event the event should be special, lately seems what we’re supposed to feel special about is that it’s Star Wars by default, I’m not willing to bow in allegiance to brand alone.

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act on instinct said:

I’m not willing to bow in allegiance to brand alone.

For what its worth, I think this is a valuable lesson to learn, no matter how you came to learn it. Nobody should be “bowing in allegiance” to any brand, and forcing an expectation to do so onto yourself is pretty unfair to both the movies and to yourself.

Star Wars shouldn’t be expected to “top” anything. It’s not really a competition. Star Wars movies need to be good, entertaining, involving movies on their own, first and foremost. Whatever standing they may or may not secure in some later brand hiearchy isn’t really anywhere near as important. If Star Wars isn’t the A1 premier brand in film anymore… eh. I don’t think I was getting anything more out of the movies and stories when it was. That status doesn’t really have anything to do with why the stories are great, you know? Something else can be the biggest brand for awhile. I’m not a shareholder in those brands so it really doesn’t matter to me which “team” is ranked #1 anyway, so long as the movies are good.

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Well I pretty much laid out I wasn’t automatically loyal to the brand, so no I don’t care so much who is making the most money or which brand is rated the highest. It’s what’s so special about Star Wars in a post Star Wars world. When the original Star Wars was made the team that would become ILM was flying by the seat of their pants, the technology that made the original films possible had to be invented, many didn’t believe in the film and it had no prior foundation of brand recognition to build upon. I personally take this context into consideration, and take the achievement of A New Hope as a pretty monumental one, enough that it not only worked, but changed the industry. So with that history there is a lot of expectation, seemingly impossible to live up to, but I’d like to see them try anyway. I know some might be fine if the new movies just looked like shinier versions of the old ones, with same but different adventures, I personally want to see the leap that Lucas made, to really push beyond what seemed possible. But the stakes are in the billions now so I understand why ST went throwback, but again I don’t care who makes the most money so I would have probably just preferred the version that audiences hated if it was a result of trying something really new.

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So with that history there is a lot of expectation

There doesn’t have to be. It’s largely artificial anyway.

Star Wars doesn’t need to be “special.” It just needs to be good. If it’s good enough it’ll BE special. Asking for it to make the same leaps over and over again is a recipe for disappointment.

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Broom Kid said:

act on instinct said:

I’m not willing to bow in allegiance to brand alone.

For what its worth, I think this is a valuable lesson to learn, no matter how you came to learn it. Nobody should be “bowing in allegiance” to any brand, and forcing an expectation to do so onto yourself is pretty unfair to both the movies and to yourself.

Star Wars shouldn’t be expected to “top” anything. It’s not really a competition. Star Wars movies need to be good, entertaining, involving movies on their own, first and foremost. Whatever standing they may or may not secure in some later brand hiearchy isn’t really anywhere near as important. If Star Wars isn’t the A1 premier brand in film anymore… eh. I don’t think I was getting anything more out of the movies and stories when it was. That status doesn’t really have anything to do with why the stories are great, you know? Something else can be the biggest brand for awhile. I’m not a shareholder in those brands so it really doesn’t matter to me which “team” is ranked #1 anyway, so long as the movies are good.

It’s really weird how everything these days has turned into, basically, sports teams. People hold allegiances to certain one with rivalries against another. I suppose the term franchise is inclusive of both, but I’d hope that the audience engagement would be different. It’s especially weird when the whole competing thing comes up because yes, these days Star Wars isn’t the number one film franchise. But the franchise that is number one is owned by the exact same company as SW, so what difference does it make?

act on instinct said:

Well I pretty much laid out I wasn’t automatically loyal to the brand, so no I don’t care so much who is making the most money or which brand is rated the highest. It’s what’s so special about Star Wars in a post Star Wars world. When the original Star Wars was made the team that would become ILM was flying by the seat of their pants, the technology that made the original films possible had to be invented, many didn’t believe in the film and it had no prior foundation of brand recognition to build upon. I personally take this context into consideration, and take the achievement of A New Hope as a pretty monumental one, enough that it not only worked, but changed the industry. So with that history there is a lot of expectation, seemingly impossible to live up to, but I’d like to see them try anyway. I know some might be fine if the new movies just looked like shinier versions of the old ones, with same but different adventures, I personally want to see the leap that Lucas made, to really push beyond what seemed possible. But the stakes are in the billions now so I understand why ST went throwback, but again I don’t care who makes the most money so I would have probably just preferred the version that audiences hated if it was a result of trying something really new.

You’re absolutely right that Lucas always tried to push the boundaries of what’s possible on Star Wars, and that isn’t really happening post-Lucas (besides Tarkin/Leia in Rogue One). It’s basically the reason he complained about them, according to Iger’s biography. From my perspective, though, it’s kind of a ‘who cares?’ sort of thing.

First of all, these days there’s really only so much boundary pushing you can do. With the advent and proliferation of CGI effects has come the desensitization of the ‘special’-ness of FX of all sorts. The assumption these days is that you can do anything with a computer, so truthfully there isn’t much room for boundary pushing in general. I am curious to see what Cameron does on the Avatar sequels, but I am also skeptical of how ‘revolutionary’ they will be.

All that aside, obviously everyone has different experiences with Star Wars, but for me the appeal was never the effects. Since I grew up with the films, I never quite understood at the time how revolutionary they were, not to mention I also grew up with all the films that came after, so I never saw their effects as special or unique. What always mattered to me far more was the story and the characters. Lucas might have invented a new form of filmmaking on the prequels, but it was the stuff that really mattered that tripped him up.

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I’m not asking for the same leaps, but different ones, unexpected and untested, previously the movies always had their own ambitions to up the ante, sometimes to their failure. I’d say it’s matter of taste what you prefer that makes it good, I would rather take the chance than have a well executed typical Star Wars movie in line with what we’ve seen before, to my perspective the recipe for disappointment is in trying to go back home again and recapture former glory, what I want isn’t my personal idea of what the sequels should be, but for them to forge their own path.

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As time has gone on, and the number of movies I’ve watched has grown exponentially, I’ve found that i’d much rather a movie be good than be “new.” Movies taking chances and failing are still unpleasant to watch, even if the intentions were noble.

Also, there’s something to be said for expanding horizons to other areas of cinema if you’re looking for new and experimental, or prioritizing its presence over practiced execution. I don’t think it’s a knock on Star Wars if some other movie made a big innovation instead of Star Wars, and I don’t think it should sour my enjoyment of Star Wars when I watch something groundbreaking happen in some other great movie that I enjoyed the hell out of, either. Again, it’s not really a competition.

Star Wars doesn’t have to be constantly pushing boundaries, and honestly, many of the boundaries it did push most successfully were primarily technical, and those advancements were only pursued because the story couldn’t be served otherwise… but the stories have never been particularly groundbreaking at all. Not as stories. They’re all sample-heavy myth pastiches. The last time Star Wars was truly groundbreaking was purely on a technical level, and those groundbreaking efforts weren’t really in service of the story, but were in service of the creation of digital filmmaking pipelines on an industry-wide scale.

I think placing the burden of “the new” on Star Wars as a primary motivating factor for watching it is only complicating many people’s ability to enjoy the films for what they’re individually trying to be.

I know that can sound like I’m making the case for lowering standards, but I’m not, really. Roger Ebert’s famous quote is something along the lines of “Judge a movie on how well it succeeds at being what it’s trying to be.” As I get older, I find that statement to be even more true. If Star Wars isn’t trying to be big bold new things all the time - there’s other stuff that IS trying to be new, and there’s nothing wrong with enjoying that stuff right alongside Star Wars. Star Wars doesn’t always have to be a testing ground. If it is, that’s cool (and you can argue that’s exactly what Mandalorian is, in a way that blends the best of OT and PT Star Wars’ innovations - VFX leaps being made because that’s the only way to get this story onscreen, and those leaps being made as a means to streamline and normalize production pipelines for future films). But I feel like holding “but you’re not NEW AND INNOVATIVE” against a film that isn’t really trying to be, and honestly doesn’t NEED to be in order to work precisely as it’s intended, is just another way for Star Wars fans to stack the deck against Star Wars, and stay slightly dissatisfied beyond the actual quality of the movies and shows AS movies and shows.