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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 11

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act on instinct said:

DominicCobb said:

Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.

The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.

Does it? Are there hardcore fans in this thread who are unwilling to go? If so, I’d love to hear if Mandalorian would make them more likely to because I don’t understand that line of thinking.

I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.

Well, considering there originally was going to be a Mandalorian based movie and now we’re even getting the same treatment for the upcoming Kenobi series I would say yes it is a factor. Really isn’t just about a single movie either it’s the whole direction of the brand and how fans feel about it. I agree the two projects won’t have much to do with each other, another way to say that is you could pick one without needing to see both. The question is does that satisfy the split (however hypothetically large or small) within the demographics of fans who are happy/unhappy with the ST, or lead to greater fracturing or at least compartmentalizing between the groups and respective content?

Mandalorian was not going to be a film. The Boba Fett movie was a separate project.

If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.

It is part of the broader theatrical vs streaming conversation, for sure. Truly I don’t have the answer, was trying to leave room for opinion, I really can’t say if the Mandalorian undercuts IX or hypes everyone up for more after they’ve completed the first season. My point though being the success or failure of any of these projects does influence the surrounding universe movies and their potential future.

For hardcore fans I don’t really believe that’s true for the most part.

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Rodney-2187 said:

SilverWook said:

Do not order the large soda!

I’m going to the marathon! I have to!

The stampede to the restrooms between films isn’t going to be a pretty sight.

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Where were you in '77?

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DominicCobb said:

Does it? Are there hardcore fans in this thread who are unwilling to go?

There have been comments made on this forum if not this thread by those who have claimed to be not going, not that I am trying to lionize that side or suggest they represent the majority but to those who feel that way I would say fair enough, free to do as they choose. But I wouldn’t discount them as hardcore fans, especially if they’re here at all. I really don’t want to get caught into a semantics thing though with what qualifies as or defines hardcore, it’s about the segment of otherwise dedicated fans who don’t enjoy the current direction of the ST or anthology movies.

If so, I’d love to hear if Mandalorian would make them more likely to because I don’t understand that line of thinking.

That’s sort of twisting my question as though it were my conclusion, I wanted to lay out the optimistic scenario and pessimistic for discussion. With respect to the former, the idea to me isn’t so far-fetched that the Mandalorian as a success wouldn’t also function as an extended advertisement for not just Disney+ but Star Wars generally as a hype machine, getting everyone talking about new Star Wars content overall and being more in the spirit to readily accept where they may have previously reacted apprehensively i.e. Solo.

Mandalorian was not going to be a film. The Boba Fett movie was a separate project.

Is this not splitting hairs a little? And what about the Kenobi series?

For hardcore fans I don’t really believe that’s true for the most part.

For any fans what they respond to the most will be the leading creative direction of Star Wars for the foreseeable future. And with the two projects contrasted in tone being released within only a month of each other, due to the proximity alone I find it feels like turning a blind eye to presume both can exist in a vacuum without some influence on the fate of the other.

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act on instinct said:

DominicCobb said:

Does it? Are there hardcore fans in this thread who are unwilling to go?

There have been comments made on this forum if not this thread by those who have claimed to be not going, not that I am trying to lionize that side or suggest they represent the majority but to those who feel that way I would say fair enough, free to do as they choose. But I wouldn’t discount them as hardcore fans, especially if they’re here at all. I really don’t want to get caught into a semantics thing though with what qualifies as or defines hardcore, it’s about the segment of otherwise dedicated fans who don’t enjoy the current direction of the ST or anthology movies.

If so, I’d love to hear if Mandalorian would make them more likely to because I don’t understand that line of thinking.

That’s sort of twisting my question as though it were my conclusion, I wanted to lay out the optimistic scenario and pessimistic for discussion. With respect to the former, the idea to me isn’t so far-fetched that the Mandalorian as a success wouldn’t also function as an extended advertisement for not just Disney+ but Star Wars generally as a hype machine, getting everyone talking about new Star Wars content overall and being more in the spirit to readily accept where they may have previously reacted apprehensively i.e. Solo.

Mandalorian was not going to be a film. The Boba Fett movie was a separate project.

Is this not splitting hairs a little? And what about the Kenobi series?

For hardcore fans I don’t really believe that’s true for the most part.

For any fans what they respond to the most will be the leading creative direction of Star Wars for the foreseeable future. And with the two projects contrasted in tone being released within only a month of each other, due to the proximity alone I find it feels like turning a blind eye to presume both can exist in a vacuum without some influence on the fate of the other.

I’ve been reading and listening to hardcore SW fans for 40 years. I know that most that talk about not seeing a SW movie or TV, book series are blowing smoke. When the product is released, they get it, watch it.

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I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

“That Darth Vader, man. Sure does love eating Jedi.”

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ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

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Does anyone think watching Agents of SHIELD led to increased attendance for Marvel movies? Or had any effect on that attendance at all?

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 (Edited)

DominicCobb said:

ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

Probably not. I’m intrigued by The Mandalorian and I think it looks good, but I’m very apprehensive about TROS and how it appears to deal with the aftermath of TLJ (which I also didn’t much like) by shoehorning in new plot ideas out of the blue.

I also didn’t like TLJ, but I think a lot of that is down to script issues. The movie had some decent ideas, but a lot of its execution feels half-baked, and it probably could’ve used a couple of extra script drafts before the cameras rolled. And everything I’ve heard so far about TROS suggests that it’s even worse in this regard.

Mind you, I do want to see The Mandalorian at some point, but I don’t plan to subscribe to Disney+ at launch, so I don’t know when that might happen. Hopefully Disney puts out some box set Blu-rays at some point.

“That Darth Vader, man. Sure does love eating Jedi.”

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DominicCobb said:

ATMachine said:

I personally won’t see TROS in the theater. I didn’t go to TLJ either.

No doubt there are what could be called hardcore fans who have no interest in the St altogether. But here’s my question, for someone like you, would watching and enjoying the Mandalorian make you more likely to see TROS in theaters?

For me, skipping TRoS is an easy choice because I didn’t like TFA all that much and I liked TLJ even less; any movie by J.J. that has to clean up after Rian is unlikely to interest me either.

To your point, Mandalorian is its own thing and enjoying it wouldn’t affect my decision to stay home for TRoS (just like my dislike for TFA/TLJ won’t stop me from checking out Mandalorian). I’m sure there’s a small minority of fans who are just done with all Star Wars at this point and will skip all Disney SW, but…

Creox said:

I’ve been reading and listening to hardcore SW fans for 40 years. I know that most that talk about not seeing a SW movie or TV, book series are blowing smoke. When the product is released, they get it, watch it.

originaltrilogy.com Administrator

MTFBWY

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 (Edited)

Like I said there’s obviously a contingent of hardcore fans who will, in fact, actually skip TROS. Star Wars is massive in a way that allows for “hardcore” fans of vastly different varieties. The question is whether there are fans who say they’ll skip, but are open to being persuaded to go based on the quality of the Mandalorian. These fans, I believe, will see it anyway, regardless of their thoughts on an unrelated TV show. Anyone who could reasonably considered a “hardcore fan” will know that Mandalorian has essentially no creative overlap with TROS, so whether they see TROS will not be affected by their reception of the Mandalorian.

You can make the argument that overall excitement and appreciation for the Star Wars brand can positively influence the box office of TROS, but then I’d argue that’s the sort of thing that’d only really affect the casual audience members. Maybe we’re into semantics now, but if you’re a hardcore Star Wars fan, at this point you know whether you’re going to see TROS in theaters or not.

Ultimately it’s a rather silly thing to discuss, because in the end there’ll be no way to tell definitively the effect one way or the other.

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I think there’s a difference between what might be “true” fans who would say Disney SW isn’t real SW and “hardcore” fans who just enjoy SW. I don’t consider myself in either of these camps though, since I don’t care for the ultra gritty grey style of the spinoff media but will go see TROS… even though I don’t have much hope for it.

Yub Nub for life

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Mocata said:

I think there’s a difference between what might be “true” fans who would say Disney SW isn’t real SW and “hardcore” fans who just enjoy SW. I don’t consider myself in either of these camps though, since I don’t care for the ultra gritty grey style of the spinoff media but will go see TROS… even though I don’t have much hope for it.

Yes! That’s a lot to do with it I believe, there is a feeling out there among a group that have decanonized “Disney Wars” and don’t take it seriously or see it more as a reboot, both hardcore and casual, even if it’s just nostalgia goggles. That would answer the question as to why they wouldn’t be in for a new Star Wars film, they don’t consider it Star Wars. I also have never watched anything made by Dave Feloni but I understand he has an inner circle seal of approval by fans and Lucas. That accounts for the hardcore contingent, are they Lucas loyalists? After all this time?

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I think the people who are insistent on not seeing TROS, myself included, would say that they WERE hardcore fans. How good The Mandalorian may or may not be is pretty irrelevant for me since I won’t be seeing it for quite some time. I don’t have the money right now for Disney Plus and I’m too engrossed in my hype for COIE. The only way I see TROS in theatres is if my dad is extremely insistent.

Back on topic, I’m not changing my prediction quite yet. I haven’t heard anything super concrete about sales yet. The only thing I’ve heard is that TROS outsold Endgame in the first hour, which means nothing since Endgame crashed practically every site when tickets went on sale and some sites were offline for hours afterwards.

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What if the word of mouth is extremely positive after release? Would any who say they plan on skipping it change their mind?

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I can’t speak for everybody, but for me, deep apathy has set in and it’s also about whether or not I could make time to get out and see it. It’s just not a priority for me.

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I had mixed feelings about the prequels, but couldn’t help myself from seeing each of them multiple times in the theater. Star Wars is just an huge event. They could put the Ewok movies and the Holiday Special on the big screen and I’d be there. There’s just nothing else like a Star Wars opening night.

I enjoyed TFA and TLJ immensely and have watched them many more times on disc. These movies are gorgeous looking and extremely well made. I have high hopes for TRoS.

Star Wars will grow and evolve over time. It’s not going to stay the same as it was in 1977. That makes those Originals even more special to me and has caused me to reevaluate the prequels. I can now appreciate them more than I did before. I look forward to seeing what is next for Star Wars.

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act on instinct said:

Did you see Solo?

I love Solo. Alden Ehrenreich would not have been my choice for the role, but I can’t deny I was highly entertained. I hope they continue with him either in another movie or a Disney+ series. I’d like to know what happens with Qi’ra, Maul, and Enfys Nest. I wouldn’t mind seeing other adventures of Han and Chewie either.

Rogue One is great too. I loved seeing the darker side of the Rebellion. Everyone gets dirty in war.

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That is definitely dedication, I wouldn’t say I’m apathetic but I would be by comparison. For me the disinterest started at Rogue One. I never read any of the expanded universe books or comics or watched the animated shows, I played some of the games but just like I had a toy lightsaber I didn’t exactly go out of my way to do that, everyone had one. The movies I considered separate. I’d probably agree with Bob Iger they got a bit overzealous and started planning too many projects too fast, before now theatrically released Star Wars films were a semi-rarity, the special event. When I gave Rogue One a chance personally I found it to be less like a movie and more like a collection of cut scenes, I understand what people mean when they say the new action polished up with heightened realism brought them to a certain point of immersion with Star Wars they haven’t felt since they were a kid, but I felt like I had already done that with the video games and what was left rang a little hollow to me.

From there I figured I just didn’t have the investment to be as interested in seeing every anthology movie, unless it otherwise hooked me. When I went to see TLJ I was still excited, but by the time I was hit by the crawl I realized I just didn’t have the same feeling I did when the iconic theme played over TFA, the brand already felt sort of diluted in a way. I’m not actually very cynical, I didn’t expect to react that way, but it has changed the feeling in the air.

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I’m curious what would get all of you back in the theaters again.

I don’t mind Disney/Lucasfilm trying some new ideas like Rogue One, Solo, and the different Disney+ series, but I think the main saga movies are right in that sweet spot of paying tribute to what came before while still giving me things I haven’t seen before. I think they’re getting it all exactly right.

As I said, I am more accepting of the prequels now, but I still think some of the choices were real head scratchers. I didn’t like where Star Wars was headed and I’m glad Lucas sold it.

I don’t think Star Wars is ending anytime soon, so maybe the next group of movies will be more appealing for some of you.

On a side note, as more people become dissatisfied with movie theaters themselves, the growing popularity of streaming, and the affordability of great home theater technology, it is quite possible the future of Star Wars will be the Disney+ series.

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That’s what I expect too, and I wouldn’t blame ST if all future Star Wars shifted to exclusively streaming, more a change with the times. Hell, there should have been a live action show ages ago.

Broom Kid said:

Does anyone think watching Agents of SHIELD led to increased attendance for Marvel movies? Or had any effect on that attendance at all?

I’m calling apples to oranges here for a few reasons, though it isn’t a bad example. First being Agents of SHIELD largely failing to be a success, basically never achieved buzz for anything, fans were not making a choice between the movies or the show as the movies were the clear victors and the show itself seemed largely to be a low rent commercial for the movies anyway rather than its own thing. Netflix series like Daredevil made an impression but again were sort of downplayed, to the point where I’m not exactly sure what kind of limbo state those shows are in now. With Star Wars there is something more unique going on being the first of live action shows within the universe (AND placed in a time period within the saga fans seem to keep wanting to return to) and definitely is seeing production value much closer to that of the movies than a traditional network show. Fans never had this choice with Star Wars before, maybe they would have made it and bailed on the prequels if they had an equally budgeted KOTR show or the Mandalorian then.