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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 10

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The only film more terrifying that Doctor Sleep this season. 😛

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Where were you in '77?

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Actually, if we look at TFA, it’s only competition in 2015 was Alvin and the Chipmunks. Not hard to see why one movie flopped, and the other became the third highest grossing of all time.

TROS, however, has to deal with…

  1. Jumanji 2, a sequel to a proven franchise with great star power.

  2. 1917, a high-stakes war movie that looks very well made.

  3. Cats, which will probably flop but might take presence in memes.

  4. Spies in Disguise, which will likely flop but might take away from child audiences.

  5. Frozen 2, despite coming out last month, will probably still have significant numbers over holidays.

Should 1917 get great word of mouth or Jumanji 2 continue to surprise like its predecessor, TROS is almost guaranteed to make less, regardless of it’s quality.

Maul- A Star Wars Story

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1917 is starting limited and isn’t gong wide until the following month.

Anyway, competition aside there’s zero chance this makes as much as TFA.

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 (Edited)

I will add an opening of 230 to my prediction of 750 domestic and 1.5 worldwide.

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790m / 1.7b total

50 Cent is just an imposter

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6b/1.7t

PM me for links to my edits; apparently, some feel shy about this.

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 (Edited)

I regrouped the predictions into an easier to read list.

Opening
144 - voltwaffle
220 - Broom Kid
230 - Rodney-2187
240 - act on instinct
260 - klawrence123

Domestic
400 - voltwaffle
540 - DrDre
620 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
630 - yotsuya
645 - act on instinct
650 - ChainsawAsh
685 - oojason
725 - Broom Kid
740 - mykyta-R4
750 - Outboundflight
750 - Rodney-2187
770 - Force-Abel
790 - V.I.N.Cent
859 - Omni
870 - klawremce123

Worldwide
860 - voltwaffle
1.2 - DrDre
1.3 - act on instinct
1.3 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
1.4 - Broom Kid
1.4 - notsuya
1.5 - Rodney-2187
1.525 - ChainsawAsh
1.625 - Outboundflight
1.65 - oojason
1.7 - Force-Abel
1.7 - V.I.N.Cent
1.75 - mykyta-R4
1.8 - klawremce123
1.8 - Omni

Mavimao - 620-936/1.3-2.0 (“between TFA and TLJ”)[more specific, please]

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Frozen 2 is the real head scratcher here, it’s clearly going to be huge, why undercut IX?

Put my opening at 240,

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Rodney-2187 said:

I regrouped the predictions into an easier to read list.

Opening
144 - voltwaffle
220 - Broom Kid
230 - Rodney-2187
240 - act on instinct
260 - klawrence123

Domestic
400 - voltwaffle
540 - DrDre
620 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
630 - notsuya
645 - act on instinct
650 - ChainsawAsh
685 - oojason
725 - Broom Kid
740 - mykyta-R4
750 - Outboundflight
750 - Rodney-2187
770 - Force-Abel
790 - V.I.N.Cent
859 - Omni
870 - klawremce123

Worldwide
860 - voltwaffle
1.2 - DrDre
1.3 - act on instinct
1.3 - pleasehello (“less than the Last Jedi”)[more specific, please]
1.4 - Broom Kid
1.4 - notsuya
1.5 - Rodney-2187
1.525 - ChainsawAsh
1.625 - Outboundflight
1.65 - oojason
1.7 - Force-Abel
1.7 - V.I.N.Cent
1.75 - mykyta-R4
1.8 - klawremce123
1.8 - Omni

Mavimao - 620-936/1.3-2.0 (“between TFA and TLJ”)[more specific, please]

Markdown supports tables if you prefer:

| User            | Opening | Domestic | Worldwide |
|-----------------|--------:|---------:|----------:|
| voltwaffle      | $144M   | $400M    | $860M     |
| Broom Kid       | $220M   | $725M    | $1.4B     |
| Rodney-2187     | $230M   | $750M    | $1.5B     |
| act on instinct | $240M   | $645M    | $1.3B     |
| klawrence123    | $260M   | $870M    | $1.8B     |
User Opening Domestic Worldwide
voltwaffle $144M $400M $860M
Broom Kid $220M $725M $1.4B
Rodney-2187 $230M $750M $1.5B
act on instinct $240M $645M $1.3B
klawrence123 $260M $870M $1.8B
originaltrilogy.com Administrator

MTFBWY

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 (Edited)

Thanks for that! Here it is!

User Opening Domestic Worldwide
voltwaffle $144M $400M $860M
DrDre $180M $540M $1.2B
dgraham414 $230M $600M $1.2B
yotsuya $240M $630M $1.4B
act on instinct $240M $645M $1.3B
ChainsawAsh $650M $1.525B
oojason $685M $1.65B
Broom Kid $220M $725M $1.4B
mykyta-R4 $740M $1.75B
Outboundflight $750M $1.625B
Rodney-2187 $230M $750M $1.5B
Force-Abel $770M $1.7B
V.I.N.Cent $790M $1.7B
JawsTDS $290M $820M $2.1B
Omni $859M $1.8B
klawrence123 $260M $870M $1.8B

This is fun. Let me know if/when anyone wants to adjust their prediction.
Join in everyone. The more the merrier!

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 (Edited)

For reference:

Opening Domestic Worldwide
The Force Awakens $247M $936M $2.0B
Rogue One $155M $532M $1.0B
The Last Jedi $220M $620M $1.3B
Solo $84M $213M $392M
Avengers: Endgame $357M $858M $2.7B
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My prediction is an opening of 230 million

A domestic gross of 600 million

And a worldwide gross of 1.2 billion

Green is not a creative color

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may eventually revise to 680/1.4 if situation permits but still seems too early to predict the climate, and I definitely don’t buy into the presale as definitive of anything.

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Well, you can add an opening of 240 for me (and please correct my name, it is yotsuya, not notsuya).

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 (Edited)

yotsuya said:

Well, you can add an opening of 240 for me (and please correct my name, it is yotsuya, not notsuya).

I added you opening prediction, and I apologize for the typo! I’m truly sorry about that!

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My opening prediction is 180. 😃

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Here’s a question, how do we factor in The Mandalorian if it proves to be a hit with the same hardcore fans (for lack of a better word) who may have been polarized by the ST? Does it help or hurt IX’s numbers either as a sign of good faith and renewed interest or be just more incentive to stay home and watch their Star Wars the way they like it?

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Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.

I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.

If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.

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DominicCobb said:

Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.

The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.

I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.

Well, considering there originally was going to be a Mandalorian based movie and now we’re even getting the same treatment for the upcoming Kenobi series I would say yes it is a factor. Really isn’t just about a single movie either it’s the whole direction of the brand and how fans feel about it. I agree the two projects won’t have much to do with each other, another way to say that is you could pick one without needing to see both. The question is does that satisfy the split (however hypothetically large or small) within the demographics of fans who are happy/unhappy with the ST, or lead to greater fracturing or at least compartmentalizing between the groups and respective content?

If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.

It is part of the broader theatrical vs streaming conversation, for sure. Truly I don’t have the answer, was trying to leave room for opinion, I really can’t say if the Mandalorian undercuts IX or hypes everyone up for more after they’ve completed the first season. My point though being the success or failure of any of these projects does influence the surrounding universe movies and their potential future.

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act on instinct said:

The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.

If you’re not seeing the latest Star Wars movie in the theater, then I don’t know if you’re a hardcore fan.

To me, hardcore means not only a level of fanaticism, but perseverance and optimism.

I can’t imagine ANYTHING that would keep me from seeing a Star Wars movie theatrically.

I already have a ticket to the 9 movie marathon and multiple showings afterward. That’s hardcore.

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Do not order the large soda!

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Where were you in '77?