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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations

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I found an interesting article that shows the strong relation between google searches (and trailer searches), and the box office success of blockbusters:

https://tubularinsights.com/do-youtube-movie-trailer-searches-correlate-to-box-office/

The full research paper:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://ssl.gstatic.com/think/docs/quantifying-movie-magic_research-studies.pdf&chrome=true

In light of this paper I decided to do my own little analysis with google trends to see how TROS stacks up to previous Star Wars releases, and it’s not looking good for the upcoming film. I restricted myself to google searches in the US that start a year before the release date up till six months after the release date, and looked at the interest and the cumulative interest over that time frame. Here’s the outcome:

The reference point here is RO which has the highest peak interest, which is set at 100. As can be seen the cumulative interest for TFA has been the highest of all the films considered here, and the cumulative interest for Solo over the entire 18 month period has been the lowest. However, looking at the cumulative curve for episode IX/TROS after 7 months the overall interest is the lowest of all films considered including the box office flop Solo. It also seems interest in Star Wars has been on a steady decline in general since TFA’s release. There’s still some time to go before TROS will be released, so things might change, and it will be interesting to follow its progress, but it’s safe to conclude that interest for a Star Wars film four months prior to release has never been so low, and so I think the powers that be should be concerned, about what the future will hold in box office terms.

I will be updating these figures over the next few months, and will also be keeping up on the interest generated by Star Wars in general.

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I know it is a different medium, but I think it would be interesting to see something similar for The Mandalorian, since it is coming out in October.

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RogueLeader said:

I know it is a different medium, but I think it would be interesting to see something similar for The Mandalorian, since it is coming out in October.

I will have a look if I can make a similar comparison, and see how interest compares to popular series in the recent past, and the other Star Wars tv series.

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Cool! Maybe a comparison with Clone Wars since it is coming back, and Resistance and Rebels are the only other Star Wars shows I can think of. There’s been pretty much no marketing for it so I doubt it will be more than a blip, but I think the cool think about these charts will be to see how they fluctuate overtime.

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yotsuya said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.

Not meant as an outburst. Figured you might take issue with some of my word choices but I was writing quickly and they did well as shorthand for - if not your feelings specifically - the feelings of many who talk about similar concerns on the internet. No need to take things personally, it was meant as a general comment.

As for the franchise waning, it’s a fact only so far as it’s naturally coming down from the all time high (77 excluded) of the TFA revival. Anything beyond that is up for debate - like any franchise Star Wars has always had its ups and downs. When the dust settles we’ll see if this is just a natural dip in between Episodes or something more. Either way it shouldn’t affect our view of the content itself.

Star Wars fever ran high from 77 to 80. It kept going from 80 to 83. After 83 it fizzled within 2 years. I saw the same with the PT. The energy was high, toys everywhere, then ROTS came out and poof… everything dropped off.

So I expect that after TROS that things are going to drop off faster. It isn’t a matter of the love of Star Wars waning, it is just that everyone knows the trilogy is over.

And I really can’t align the stats DrDre is quoting to the stats that currently, this far out, that the TROS teaser has 75% of the views of the TFA trailer. That is a huge number of views at this point compared to a teaser trailer that came out 4 years ago. To me that indicates that something about the stats DrDre is quoting are incomplete and aren’t giving us the whole picture.

Well, it could mean the trailer hasn’t been able to create enough interest in the film, and while people were curious about the teaser trailer, interest in the film has waned following the release of the teaser. It could mean interest will increase in the near future, once the marketing campaign is at full throttle. The picture isn’t complete, but it will become more clear as we approach the release date.

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Personally I can’t get past the fact that RO has the highest interest by far, yet lower BO than TFA and TLJ (and even on cumulative interest it’s still quite a bit higher, as is ROTS, over TLJ, despite the ultimate BO performance). Point being, it seems like a rather imprecise science, especially considering there isn’t the full picture for TROS yet.

And again, I have to ask, who cares exactly? Why bend over backwards to make a prediction when we’ll literally know how it’ll shape up in a few short months? Despite your protestations, it’s hard not to think you want TROS to fail.

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DominicCobb said:

Personally I can’t get past the fact that RO has the highest interest by far, yet lower BO than TFA and TLJ (and even on cumulative interest it’s still quite a bit higher, as is ROTS, over TLJ, despite the ultimate BO performance). Point being, it seems like a rather imprecise science, especially considering there isn’t the full picture for TROS yet.

RO has the highest peak interest, but I added the cumulative interest for a reason, since it provides an average over time, which is a more accurate measure. The relationship between the measured interest and box office has an accuracy of 70%, meaning that there obviously is a measure of uncertainly, but it is a strong relationship, implying a significant drop in interest more likely than not will result in lower box office returns.

And again, I have to ask, who cares exactly? Why bend over backwards to make a prediction when we’ll literally know how it’ll shape up in a few short months? Despite your protestations, it’s hard not to think you want TROS to fail.

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

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It’s an event movie, it’s a holiday release, I don’t see them struggling. Nothing’s impossible but I see the failure of Solo as something caused by timing and marketing rather than SW as a brand.

Yub Nub for life

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DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

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Mocata said:

It’s an event movie, it’s a holiday release, I don’t see them struggling. Nothing’s impossible but I see the failure of Solo as something caused by timing and marketing rather than SW as a brand.

A brand which lately has been struggling to reach a new generation of fans, whilst alienating a fraction of the previous generations of fans:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

TROS will likely make a profit, but the question is whether it will break the $1B mark. If not it will be seen a failure nonetheless.

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

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Well I didn’t a box office disappointment that “only” makes 700mil, meant a real box office bomb which, like Solo, completely fails to break even. Not every Disney project is a billion dollar release and some are only average success stories. But that being said I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached it here. The online climate is hard to discern, and how far it reaches into the real world of casual viewers is impossible to measure.

Yub Nub for life

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Mocata said:

Well I didn’t a box office disappointment that “only” makes 700mil, meant a real box office bomb which, like Solo, completely fails to break even. Not every Disney project is a billion dollar release and some are only average success stories. But that being said I wouldn’t be surprised if they reached it here. The online climate is hard to discern, and how far it reaches into the real world of casual viewers is impossible to measure.

Well, that’s exactly what the article is about. It is possible to measure just that with some degree of certaintly through google searches, which include the casual viewers.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

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Also, the idea that TROS will make less than a billion worldwide is not what I would call a smart money prediction. There’s obviously a chance it could happen, but the percentage of likelihood is certainly on the low end.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

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 (Edited)

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

The fact of the matter is, the complaining from TLJ-haters about being painted with a broad brush as something they’re not mostly comes across as silly and whiny. Most of complaints in regards to people calling everyone who criticized the movie “man baby” or “misogynist” are grossly overstated, considering there’s practically no one actually doing that, and these people are just latching on to legitimate critiques of people who actually are being man babies and misogynist, and falsely claiming they’re being lumped in with them (for reasons beyond me, maybe persecution complex or they don’t want to engage with the fact that there are people who are actually like that out there, who might share some opinions on a movie with them). Ultimately, posts like this^ just come across a little tinfoil hat-y. ‘The whole fandom is divided and out to get me, and Lucasfilm is complicit.’ It’s just silly man, I don’t know how else to describe it.

That’s why I call it imaginary. That’s what it feels like, a made up controversy. Obviously there are people out there being annoying on either side. But to the extent that it’s this extensive, disastrous, oppressive ‘climate’… not feeling it personally.

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The election year microcosm is not lost on anyone else here I hope? It’s anybody’s guess as to how bad things really are, so many variables while there’s a market paradigm shift to streaming at the same time. We will never know what might have been, or which and how many of these choices made under new management were responsible. I agree the intensity of the dogfights have been somewhat cherry picked overblown, but also might be indicators to the tip of an iceberg. Will IX flop? Not a chance, but I’m not so sure for the future of Star Wars universe movies…

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 (Edited)

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

The fact of the matter is, the complaining from TLJ-haters about being painted with a broad brush as something they’re not mostly comes across as silly and whiny. Most of complaints in regards to people calling everyone who criticized the movie “man baby” or “misogynist” are grossly overstated, considering there’s practically no one actually doing that, and these people are just latching on to legitimate critiques of people who actually are being man babies and misogynist, and falsely claiming they’re being lumped in with them (for reasons beyond me, maybe persecution complex or they don’t want to engage with the fact that there are people who are actually like that out there, who might share some opinions on a movie with them). Ultimately, posts like this^ just come across a little tinfoil hat-y. ‘The whole fandom is divided and out to get me, and Lucasfilm is complicit.’ It’s just silly man, I don’t know how else to describe it.

That’s why I call it imaginary. That’s what it feels like, a made up controversy. Obviously there are people out there being annoying on either side. But to the extent that it’s this extensive, disastrous, oppressive ‘climate’… not feeling it personally.

Sorry, but it’s easy for you to claim it’s overstated and imaginary being on the other side. You don’t have to endure all the name calling, and have your motives continually questioned. You yourself accused me of hating the ST two days ago, only to backtrack once I confronted you with it, and yesterday again questioned my motives for doing a little research, implying I must want TROS to fail. Earlier in the week another user here stated, since he or she feels Rey is a perfectly good character, the motives of those criticizing Rey’s character are suspect by default. Even if we’re not open misogynists, and racists, we’re likely closet misogynists, and racists. It’s this sort of atmosphere that contributes to the climate I’m talking about. It’s not just obnoxious fans doing it, it’s regular reasonable people that help sustain it, looking to validate their opinions. Then there’s the media. There have literally been dozens of articles, which boil down to “I’m sure there are some fans with legitimate complaints about the movie, but most of them are toxic”, or the articles that try to do amateur psychology, and explain why some fans dislike the movie, which in the best case scenario can be summarized, that we didn’t get what we want, and want things to stay the same, and in the worst case scenario accuse us of misogyny, racism, and trolling. Then there’s the so called research allegedly showing fans mostly criticized TLJ out of political motives, or show we largely consist of Russian bots, research that was either biased, or taken out of context by the media to produce another clickbait article, and spin the narrative (and retweeted by RJ by the way, who somewhat understandably wants to believe the vast majority of fans like his movie). This has been the climate since TLJ’s release, sparked by a small group of toxic fans, that started harrassing people, and sustained by fans and the media holding on to the belief that the division amounts to little more than a vocal minority.

To recapitulate according to many fans, and the media, I’m a hater bent on the destruction of Disney Star Wars, whereas in reality I still like most Disney Star Wars. I liked TFA upon release, and still do mostly, even if I feel it’s too derivative, and that it’s a missed opportunity to just hit the reset button. I like RO, which I feel is the best Disney movie to date, even if it’s too heavy on the fan service, and the characters could use more development. I dislike TLJ overall for reasons, which have been discussed ad nauseum, but still feel there are good and even great elements to it, like the Rey/Luke/Kylo dynamic, which is up there with the best the franchise has to offer. I thought Solo was an oke movie, but largely forgettable. Finally, I’m cautiously optimistic about TROS, and hope it will be a good movie, that will satisfy most fans. That is my reality, and the reality of the vast majority of critical fans I engage with. We are critical of some of the choices made, and question some of the motives behind it, but are generally still hopeful that the franchise has a bright future ahead.

In any case, we are probably not going to agree on this, so let’s get back on topic.

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RogueLeader said:

Cool! Maybe a comparison with Clone Wars since it is coming back, and Resistance and Rebels are the only other Star Wars shows I can think of. There’s been pretty much no marketing for it so I doubt it will be more than a blip, but I think the cool think about these charts will be to see how they fluctuate overtime.

Here’s a comparison between the interest in the various Star Wars TV shows in the US:

The Clone Wars has seen the most interest by far, and also has the most interest right now. Rebels comes in second, but interest has rapidly decreased once the final season was finished. Resistance and The Mandalorian only get a small fraction of the interest seen for the older TV series, although interest in The Mandalorian will likely increase around November when the first season starts. Star Wars Resistance is the bottom of the barrel though, and it’s no wonder it’s been cancelled after the second season.

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Another interesting comparison is how interest worldwide in the Star Wars franchise in general compares to other big franchises, like Harry Potter and the MCU:

This comparison shows while interest in Star Wars was at an all time high in 2015, interest has slumped considerably since the release of TLJ, and currently is at an all time low. Both the Harry Potter franchise and the MCU garner significantly more interest today with the MCU getting a significant boost in the last few years, and the Harry Potter franchise sustaining interest despite the lackluster reception to the latest Fantastic Beasts entry.

The waning interest in Star Wars also explains the disappointing Star Wars toy sales:

Hasbro Star Wars revenue for 2016 was about $333 million, in 2017 it was about $243 million and in 2018 it was about $161 million. Some have argued in the past that toy sales in general have been on the decline, but this graph proves that argument doesn’t hold, since the interest in Marvel/Avengers toys has seen a healthy increase, and since 2018 consistently surpass interest in Star Wars toys by a wide margin:

Finally this graph shows the strong relationship between the cumulative yearly interest in Star Wars in general as measured on google trends, and Star Wars toy sales:

The cumulative interest for this year stands at 56, which translates roughly to toy sales of approx. $100M, a number that might double by the end of the year, but still amounts to an over 50% drop compared to the periods around the releases of ROTS, then the conclusion of the Skywalker saga, and TFA.

On the basis of these graphs, I would conclude that Star Wars as a brand is clearly on the decline, and whatever strategy was chosen by Disney and Lucasfilm hasn’t worked out for them, whilst the strategy of the MCU has been extremely successful thusfar.

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Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:

1st film: record breaking numbers

2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

And for the ST?

TFA: Record breaking numbers

TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

What’s the internal temperature of a TaunTaun? Luke warm.