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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations — Page 24

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Domestic Box Office Totals Star Wars + MCU

The Force Awakens - $936,662,225

Avengers: Endgame - $858,373,000
Black Panther - $700,059,566
Avengers: Infinity War - $678,815,482
The Avengers - $623,357,910

The Last Jedi - 620,181,382

Rogue One - $532,177,324

Avengers: Age of Ultron - $459,005,868

The Rise of Skywalker - $450,796,441 (still in theaters)

Captain Marvel - $426,829,839
Iron Man 3 - $408,992,272
Captain America: Civil War - $408,084,349
Spider-Man: Far From Home - $390,532,085
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 - $389,813,101
Spider-Man: Homecoming - $334,201,140
Guardians of the Galaxy - $333,172,112
Iron Man - $318,604,126
Thor: Ragnarok - $315,058,289
Iron Man 2 - $312,433,331
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $259,746,958
Doctor Strange - $232,641,920
Ant-Man and the Wasp - $216,648,740

Solo - $213,767,512

Thor: The Dark World - $206,362,140
Thor - $181,030,624
Ant-Man - $180,202,163
Captain America: The First Avenger - $176,654,505
The Incredible Hulk - $134,806,913

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Strange that something like Captain America seemed to have underperformed by modern standards.

As for TROS I guess some word of mouth has kept it going?

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Date comparison:

Rogue One TLJ TRoS
Dec 15 $104,684,491
Dec 16 $71,094,394 $63,993,205
Dec 17 $46,308,115 $51,331,888
Dec 18 $37,679,172 $21,556,373
Dec 19 $17,596,150 $20,254,189
Dec 20 $17,582,978 $16,889,863 $89,615,288
Dec 21 $14,965,790 $17,892,347 $47,467,565
Dec 22 $16,773,075 $24,763,084 $40,301,011
Dec 23 $22,860,256 $29,172,415 $29,389,847
Dec 24 $15,308,508 $17,629,999 $20,270,474
Dec 25 $25,865,004 $27,459,557 $32,165,681
Dec 26 $32,085,637 $27,734,356 $30,586,950
Dec 27 $22,515,612 $21,846,132 $26,069,973
Dec 28 $18,021,482 $19,490,329 $25,075,535
Dec 29 $16,722,532 $19,029,250 $21,244,082
Dec 30 $18,224,317 $19,924,241 $15,302,130
Dec 31 $14,632,828 $13,566,649 $13,217,698
Jan 1 $16,751,857 $14,293,461 $17,076,472
Jan 2 $15,913,674 $7,876,574 $9,274,735
Jan 3 $6,268,921 $5,225,332 $11,038,440
Jan 4 $4,237,535 $4,348,867 $14,319,903
Jan 5 $3,893,517 $6,523,473 $9,166,472

Length of release comparison:

Rogue One TLJ TRoS
day 1 $71,094,394 $104,684,491 $89,615,288
day 2 $46,308,115 $63,993,205 $47,467,565
day 3 $37,679,172 $51,331,888 $40,301,011
day 4 $17,596,150 $21,556,373 $29,389,847
day 5 $17,582,978 $20,254,189 $20,270,474
day 6 $14,965,790 $16,889,863 $32,165,681
day 7 $16,773,075 $17,892,347 $30,586,950
day 8 $22,860,256 $24,763,084 $26,069,973
day 9 $15,308,508 $29,172,415 $25,075,535
day 10 $25,865,004 $17,629,999 $21,244,082
day 11 $32,085,637 $27,459,557 $15,302,130
day 12 $22,515,612 $27,734,356 $13,217,698
day 13 $18,021,482 $21,846,132 $17,076,472
day 14 $16,722,532 $19,490,329 $9,274,735
day 15 $18,224,317 $19,029,250 $11,038,440
day 16 $14,632,828 $19,924,241 $14,319,903
day 17 $16,751,857 $13,566,649 $9,166,472
day 18 $15,913,674 $14,293,461
day 19 $6,268,921 $7,876,574
day 20 $4,237,535 $5,225,332
day 21 $3,893,517 $4,348,867

$451,582,256 (domestic) + $467,535,506 (international) = $919,117,762 (worldwide)

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Mocata said:

Strange that something like Captain America seemed to have underperformed by modern standards.

As for TROS I guess some word of mouth has kept it going?

Captain America was a lot more popular after the Avengers movie

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Cthulhunicron said:

Mocata said:

Strange that something like Captain America seemed to have underperformed by modern standards.

As for TROS I guess some word of mouth has kept it going?

Captain America was a lot more popular after the Avengers movie

Yeah but you can’t reverse engineer box office takings.

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Save for Iron Man, most of Phase One was mid-tier box-office. Marvel didn’t become MARVEL until The Avengers. It’s part of why that film’s success was so surprising. Up until that opening weekend nobody was really sure the gambit would work, much less work THAT well.

Nobody ever expected that much from the series, even after its cultural takeover had begun. It’s part of the reason comparing Star Wars to Marvel is such a loaded and unfair notion - Marvel’s never had decades of behind-the-scenes myth-making and cultural importance shoved upon it by fans and media helping raise the bar almost unreachably high with EVERY movie. It’s just been consistently producing and releasing good-to-great action films annually. So when its movies don’t excel at the box-office every time out (Ant-Man, Doctor Strange, Captain America, etc.) nobody really seems to mind. There’s not that much riding on them, normally, at least not in the way Star Wars is seen to always have the weight of a whole galaxy riding on it, both in the fictional universe and out in the real world.

Marvel Studios is actually helped by the fact they’ve never courted that level of scrutiny, or indulged in that kind of behind-the-scenes mythmaking. They seem to prefer an atmosphere where if you dig it, that’s great, and if you don’t, it’s not that big a deal, we’ll get you on the next one. Whereas at Lucasfilm if you dig it, you were supposed to, so it’s not really a victory, but if you don’t dig it, that’s a huge sign of something horribly awry on a frightening level that invites a million thinkpieces on what should be fixed. The distinction is essentially one where the studio never lost sight of the general audience as their PRIMARY audience, as opposed to Lucasfilm, whose target audience seemed to increasingly be people who felt the need to feed into such huge, heavy, cultural expectations when they went to the theater.

Age of Ultron was essentially Marvel’s “The Rise of Skywalker” and… it basically didn’t matter by the time the next movie came out. Marvel knew it could release Ant-Man or Doctor Strange and it didn’t matter if it only did 1/2 what Iron Man did, because nobody in Marvel’s target audience is expecting Avengers numbers every time out for every title.

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I’m not arguing the fact, it’s just interesting to see how little (comparatively) some films made. But they carried forward anyway instead of being reactive. By Phase 2 it was clearly in the groove.

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Mocata said:

I’m not arguing the fact, it’s just interesting to see how little (comparatively) some films made. But they carried forward anyway instead of being reactive. By Phase 2 it was clearly in the groove.

Right, that rejection of the reaction/correction impulse - at least to an ostentatious degree, as we’ve seen multiple times at Lucasfilm, both during the George and Post-George eras, is a big key to Marvel’s ongoing success. They’re not aiming at the reactionaries in the first place, and they’re not altering course based on those reactions. They make corrections and re-adjust as they go, obviously. But they’re very careful not to cede control to any real degree to the very vocal minority of their audience. They don’t do anything that makes their films THAT fragile/precious, basically.

It’s funny to look back at Captain America’s reception from here in 2020. The movie didn’t do poorly at the box-office, and it wasn’t badly-reviewed, either. But it came out just before people started to understand what MARVEL could be and how it was going to rewrite box-office rules, and was being judged against the conventional wisdom of what these movies were supposed to be, and it suffered for that. But you rewatch now and it’s like a Phase Three movie grabbed the time-stone and snuck back into Phase One. It’s got a lot of style, doesn’t adhere to the "Marvel Formula’ as people like to think of it, and makes some pretty bold choices along the way. I believe it’s still the only Marvel Movie to have a musical montage in the middle of it.

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Mocata said:

I’m not arguing the fact, it’s just interesting to see how little (comparatively) some films made. But they carried forward anyway instead of being reactive. By Phase 2 it was clearly in the groove.

Solo was a game changer because they spent too much on it. They had to fire the directors and essentially refilm most of the movie with a new director and that shot up the cost. If that hadn’t happened I think it would have made a profit and we would have gotten another film. I think they should try some lower budget side films, which like the Mandelorian are not tied to the saga, and see how they do.

I find it interesting that Frozen II, which has been out longer, has a lower domestic gross than TROS. But it’s international gross is twice TROS. But none of the Star Wars films have done that well internationally (as in double the domestic gross).

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It’s a matter of expectation. Iron Man was a surprise hit. The other films, like Captain America, did about as well as everyone had expected, and were successes because they were budgeted with that sort of return in mind. Solo was a failure because after TFA (and the residual ‘Star Wars is back’ novelty that boosted RO), Disney came to expect that every Star Wars film would top a billion.

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Mocata said:

Cthulhunicron said:

Mocata said:

Strange that something like Captain America seemed to have underperformed by modern standards.

As for TROS I guess some word of mouth has kept it going?

Captain America was a lot more popular after the Avengers movie

Yeah but you can’t reverse engineer box office takings.

Not sure what you mean.

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yotsuya said:

I think it is going to pass the 1 billion mark. My guess is next Sunday or sometime during the following week. And it is still playing on a lot of screens and hasn’t hit the second run theaters yet. So there is potential for it climb a couple of notches higher for the 2019 worldwide box office.

I’m going to revise that and guess over the next 3 to 4 weeks.

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Here’s an updated figure of the domestic BO up till Jan 7:

It’s looking far less likely TROS will beat the final BO of RO. Here’s an estimate on the future trajectory based on the trajectory of RO:

The current estimated total world wide BO is $1.046 billion.

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DrDre said:

The road to final installment of the ST has been quite different from the OT and PT. Many people have argued, that TLJ feels more like the end of a trilogy than a middle act. Given the waning interest in Star Wars in general, my guess is, that TROS will end up near RO levels, which was also a December release. The fact that TROS is the conclusion to the Skywalker saga might draw in more people, but given that interest is at an all time low, I think TROS just breaking the $1B mark is not at all an unlikely scenario.

DrDre, I have to say, bravo. When this thread started everyone - including myself - thought you were crazy for predicting the movie wouldn’t surpass TLJ, let alone barely break a billion. But you stuck to your opinion, and wow, it proved true!

Maul- A Star Wars Story

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It wasn’t the waning interest that led to these totals though. It was the quality of the film. Again, I don’t think any of those predictions were being made under the assumption the film in question would be the most poorly reviewed Star Wars since The Phantom Menace. Had the film been at the quality level of even Solo, those numbers wouldn’t have borne out.

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Broom Kid said:

It wasn’t the waning interest that led to these totals though. It was the quality of the film. Again, I don’t think any of those predictions were being made under the assumption the film in question would be the most poorly reviewed Star Wars since The Phantom Menace. Had the film been at the quality level of even Solo, those numbers wouldn’t have borne out.

All the numbers showed interest in the brand was waning well before TROS release, hence my prediction at the time. Good reviews might have boosted the numbers somewhat, but even the opening weekend indicated a final BO of around the 1 billion mark. Also, let’s not forget TPM’s inflation adjusted BO is $1.8 billion, the third most financially successful film in the franchise, so evidently the financial success of a Star Wars film is not strongly correlated with its reviews.

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If you look at all three trilogies, interest wanes during the course of each. The first film does the best, followed by the second and then third (well, ROTS did better than AOTC, but not better than TPM and ROTJ did better domestically than TESB, but not worldwide or adjusted for inflation). So the three top films are ANH, TPM and TFA. Well, if you want them in order by adjusted domestic gross, they are ANH, TFA, TESB, ROTJ, TPM, TLJ, ROTS, TROS, AOTC. While not the order I would rate the films, that is the order I rate the trilogies (OT, ST, PT). So the ST has been more successful than the PT was. Disney has a lot to be happy about… except Solo.

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Just my opinion, but DrDre’s method does indeed seem accurate for predicting the opening based on the level of interest at that time. But interest can fluctuate greatly depending on how well the movie is received. Had the movie been better reviewed by critics and/or audiences, the total box office could have been a lot higher, just as if it had worse reviews it could have been lower. I think word of mouth is more powerful than early interest, but that is of course just my perception. I don’t have any data beyond anecdotal observations.

I loved The Rise of Skywalker. I am surprised it didn’t make more. Everyone has an idea why it didn’t and everyone seems sure they’re right. There’s probably a little truth in almost all of the theories.

I do not think Star Wars as a brand is in any kind of trouble though. These movies still did very well. In a few years there will inevitably be another set of movies. I imagine people will continue to be interested in the directors, cast, trailers, and such. Maybe those will have more universal and critical appeal. I imagine a lot of thought will be put into it. I’m interested to see exactly what Project Luminous is all about.

Until then, I can’t wait to see more of the Disney+ live action and animated series. It’s a great time to be a Star Wars fan.

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DrDre said:
Good reviews might have boosted the numbers somewhat, but even the opening weekend indicated a final BO of around the 1 billion mark. Also, let’s not forget TPM’s inflation adjusted BO is $1.8 billion, the third most financially successful film in the franchise, so evidently the financial success of a Star Wars film is not strongly correlated with its reviews.

Good reviews would have definitely boosted the numbers, as the interest in the film began declining markedly as the early word began coming in that the film was not only possibly the worst of the sequel trilogy, but maybe the worst film since Phantom Menace, whose repuatation has only declined since its 1999 premiere. The film’s opening weekend was definitely stunted by its word of mouth, which points to how big a factor it’s quality was in damaging its own box-office. Essentially - post-premiere, the film’s legs started shrinking IMMEDIATELY. It was a Batman v. Superman situation more than anything. Social media’s speed and prominence makes a much bigger difference in how quickly word of mouth gets digested and disseminated now compared to the late 90s.

TPM was also the first Star Wars film since 1983, which is good to keep in mind. Word of mouth during that summer was better (and slower-moving) than Rise of Skywalker’s word of mouth is this winter. I don’t think anyone early-estimating the numbers it wound up at was doing so under the assumption the movie was going to be what it ended up being.

(anecdotally: I remember much discussion on the early internets about how Titanic’s record WOULD have been broken in 1999 had The Phantom Menace actually been good. Not to say such analysis had merit - hell not to say mine does either, obviously! But there were definitely conversations as to how Phantom Menace’s quality did hinder it at the box-office somewhat)

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Broom Kid said:

DrDre said:
Good reviews might have boosted the numbers somewhat, but even the opening weekend indicated a final BO of around the 1 billion mark. Also, let’s not forget TPM’s inflation adjusted BO is $1.8 billion, the third most financially successful film in the franchise, so evidently the financial success of a Star Wars film is not strongly correlated with its reviews.

Good reviews would have definitely boosted the numbers, as the interest in the film began declining markedly as the early word began coming in that the film was not only possibly the worst of the sequel trilogy, but maybe the worst film since Phantom Menace, whose repuatation has only declined since its 1999 premiere. The film’s opening weekend was definitely stunted by its word of mouth, which points to how big a factor it’s quality was in damaging its own box-office. Essentially - post-premiere, the film’s legs started shrinking IMMEDIATELY. It was a Batman v. Superman situation more than anything.

TPM was also the first Star Wars film since 1983, which is good to keep in mind. Word of mouth during that summer was better than Rise of Skywalker’s word of mouth is this winter. I don’t think anyone early-estimating the numbers it wound up at was doing so under the assumption the movie was going to be what it ended up being.

(anecdotally: I remember much discussion on the early internets about how Titanic’s record WOULD have been broken in 1999 had The Phantom Menace actually been good. Not to say such analysis had merit - hell not to say mine does either, obviously! But there were definitely conversations as to how Phantom Menace’s quality did hinder it at the box-office somewhat)

Well, I for one didn’t have high expectations for this film before it was released. TLJ was a highly divisive film, and no matter how anyone felt about it, it didn’t leave many story threads unresolved, and didn’t end on a cliffhanger. So, TROS was fighting an uphill battle from the beginning. Add to this, that the anticipation for this film seemed very tepid for most of the time leading up to its release, which prompted me to look into some sentiment analysis, leading to the prediction it would not do record breaking numbers at the box office. Had the film been the second coming, perhaps word of mouth would have carried it a lot further, but given the recent history, and Abrams’ reputation, I don’t think many people expected a masterpiece. Hence, this outcome was not all that suprising to some of us.

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DrDre said:
but given the recent history, and Abrams’ reputation, I don’t think many people expected a masterpiece. Hence, this outcome was not all that suprising to some of us.

The quality of the film being this poor was pretty surprising to a large number, which is why the word of mouth hit the film’s legs as hard as it did. There’s a pretty big gulf between masterpiece and The Rise of Skywalker, and it wasn’t an either/or proposition - Masterpiece vs. Stinker, record-breaker vs giant disappointment, etc. I’m not saying people were expecting a masterpiece - just that pretty much nobody expected it to be THIS bad. And being this bad is obviously, absolutely having a big effect on its box-office. Which is why I’m saying I don’t think those early projections would look accurate now had the film not done its damndest to turn off the general audience, which was a factor I don’t think anyone making those projections was accounting for.

If it were a masterpiece obviously its box-office would be better. But even if it was barely as well-regarded a film as The Force Awakens (i.e. safely serviceable), the numbers wouldn’t be where they are now.

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I’m not sure how anyone could be saying it might not break a billion. They’d have to pull it from theaters to accomplish that.

DrDre said:
but given the recent history, and Abrams’ reputation, I don’t think many people expected a masterpiece. Hence, this outcome was not all that suprising to some of us.

If you look at the Tomatoemeter (i.e. the only “review” that matters for the vast majority of the audience), TROS has 53%, which is a massive drop off from the next lowest rated Abrams film (Mission: Impossible III, which also disappointed). Regardless of your personal feelings on TFA, that film was a mostly unanimous success, with a 93% rating. That’s a very significant difference from TROS.

There’s a difference between not getting overwhelmingly positive reviews and getting bad reviews. 53% is far outside the realm of what people have come to expect from things like Star Wars and Marvel. Even the flop Solo had a 70%.

Broom Kid said:

Which is why I’m saying I don’t think those early projections would look accurate now had the film not done its damndest to turn off the general audience, which was a factor I don’t think anyone making those projections was accounting for.

Exactly. We probably should have included RT predictions alongside our BO guesses. But then again, I personally would never have guessed there was the possibility it would score this low (fool I am, I probably would have predicted high 80s, low 90s). If you had told me ahead of time it would have 53% I would have guessed a much lower number (and in fact I believe I said as much when the tomatometer was revealed).

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Broom Kid said:

DrDre said:
but given the recent history, and Abrams’ reputation, I don’t think many people expected a masterpiece. Hence, this outcome was not all that suprising to some of us.

The quality of the film being this poor was pretty surprising to a large number, which is why the word of mouth hit the film’s legs as hard as it did. There’s a pretty big gulf between masterpiece and The Rise of Skywalker, and it wasn’t an either/or proposition - Masterpiece vs. Stinker, record-breaker vs giant disappointment, etc. I’m not saying people were expecting a masterpiece - just that pretty much nobody expected it to be THIS bad. And being this bad is obviously, absolutely having a big effect on its box-office. Which is why I’m saying I don’t think those early projections would look accurate now had the film not done its damndest to turn off the general audience, which was a factor I don’t think anyone making those projections was accounting for.

If it were a masterpiece obviously its box-office would be better. But even if it was barely as well-regarded a film as The Force Awakens (i.e. safely serviceable), the numbers wouldn’t be where they are now.

I disagree, that people feel it is that bad. It had mixed reviews, and pretty much any audience measure (RM, imdb, etc) indicate most fans, and the general audience like it better than the critics. I would argue most would say, it is a flawed, but entertaining film. I also disagree with your assessment of TFA, which was very well recieved by critics, fans, and general audience alike. It was only over time, that its reputation began to suffer, and its weaker elements, that at first were seen as not detrimental to the film, began to soil its reputation.

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DominicCobb said:

I’m not sure how anyone could be saying it might not break a billion. They’d have to pull it from theaters to accomplish that.

DrDre said:
but given the recent history, and Abrams’ reputation, I don’t think many people expected a masterpiece. Hence, this outcome was not all that suprising to some of us.

If you look at the Tomatoemeter (i.e. the only “review” that matters for the vast majority of the audience), TROS has 53%, which is a massive drop off from the next lowest rated Abrams film (Mission: Impossible III, which also disappointed). Regardless of your personal feelings on TFA, that film was a mostly unanimous success, with a 93% rating. That’s a very significant difference from TROS. Even the flop Solo had a 70%.

There’s a difference between not getting overwhelmingly positive reviews and getting bad reviews. 53% is far outside the realm of what people have come to expect from things like Star Wars and Marvel.

Like I said, I think the film was better recieved by fans, and the general audience, than critics, many of whom viewed it as a capitulation to TLJ’s critics. In any case, I expected mixed reviews from critics, though perhaps a bit more positive than they were in the end. I didn’t believe anything other than it being a truly great film could push it beyond TLJ’s numbers. When they announced Palpatine’s return, there was an air of desperation in the way they approached this film in my view. This coupled with waning interest in the brand led to my own predictions for this film.