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The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations - NO SPOILERS — Page 2

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Mavimao said:

Here’s how the OT and PT did in theaters:

1st film: record breaking numbers

2nd film: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

3rd: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

And for the ST?

TFA: Record breaking numbers

TLJ: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TROS: ?? (my guess: in between TFA and TLJ)

Some people argue:

TFA: Record breaking numbers

RO: successful, but much lower than the 1st.

TLJ: better than the 2nd but not as good as the 1st.

TROS: ??

The road to final installment of the ST has been quite different from the OT and PT. Many people have argued, that TLJ feels more like the end of a trilogy than a middle act. Given the waning interest in Star Wars in general, my guess is, that TROS will end up near RO levels, which was also a December release. The fact that TROS is the conclusion to the Skywalker saga might draw in more people, but given that interest is at an all time low, I think TROS just breaking the $1B mark is not at all an unlikely scenario.

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Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

The persecution complex is a bit much for me. “You’re ACCUSING me of hating a movie I didn’t hate, how dare you! You’re the reason this franchise is dying, you and the fact that they made a movie that wasn’t fan service 101 ala Avengers: Endgame!” Hard not to look at all this “data” and not think it’s you trying to prove yourself right that this conspiracy to “demonize the fan base” has killed Star Wars or whatever. Sorry if it looks funny to an outsider who doesn’t as easily subscribe to prevailing reddit and YouTube theories.

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DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

This is how you do an objective scientific analysis. Numbers don’t lie, haha.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

Two out of the big three are dead, and this trilogy isn’t done yet. A lot of people expected Luke to die in the final installment. R2-D2 has been replaced by BB-8, C-3PO has been sidelined. Also, most people expected the classic characters to die at some point, but not necessarily in the service of a reboot.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

Two out of the big three are dead, and this trilogy isn’t done yet. A lot of people expected Luke to die in the final installment. R2-D2 has been replaced by BB-8, C-3PO has been sidelined.

I’m not sure why anyone would have expected this trilogy to be about the old big three. That’s not really how this series rolls, nor would it have been practical considering their advancing age (a statement that’s making me sad now that I think of it - moment of silence for Carrie). R2 and 3PO have been sidelined since 2002 and 1999 respectively. No one goes to these movies to see them. And people seem to love BB-8 just as much them, so I’m not sure that “replacing” really backfired in anyway.

I will agree to the extent that if TROS underperforms, probably the main reason will be lack of Han Solo and Luke Skywalker, but I think that says more about how those two characters boosted the performance of TFA and TLJ. Truthfully, Disney’s lucky it got to play with the old characters at all.

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

Huh I guess Star Wars really is dead and TLJ killed it. Good job, you proved it. Haha

Nope, Star Wars is in decline, and I’ve said nothing about TLJ being the cause, just that Disney’s strategy hasn’t worked, which is a reasonable conclusion, if the objective is growth, a conclusion supported by the recent analysis of bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

What then would you say is Disney’s strategy that has been so disastrous?

Out with the old, in with the new. The Galaxy Edge theme park is the best evidence, that Disney gambled on the strength of the new canon. In the process they alienated a subsection of the previous generations of fans, whilst not being able to win over the new generation. They essentially rebooted the franchise with characters that aren’t as compelling, and so people lose interest.

See, that seems like an odd deduction to me. Honestly, if anything Disney has been focusing too much on the old canon, to the detriment of the new. 90% of merchandise, tie-in books, etc. seem to be OT related.

And I can’t imagine anyone who decided not to go to Galaxy’s Edge simply because it focuses on the new canon - general fans wouldn’t even necessarily know that’s the case and more hardcore fans wouldn’t care. I think there are a lot of other factors at play with the park, namely blocking out pass holders, raised ticket prices, and the fact that they still haven’t opened the second ride (the reason I haven’t been yet, and I obviously am a fan of the new canon). Worth noting too that the extent to which the park is “new canon” is only the characters who walk around the land. The planet that’s the setting of the park isn’t from any of the movies and the ride that’s open now doesn’t feature characters from any of the movies either (perhaps, if anything, this is evidence of a different problem).

They have focussed too much on the old canon in a way, but they also killed off much of the old characters in the service of a story, that can be considered a modern take on the OT. The objective thus seems to be less about building on what came before, and more about replacing it with Disney canon.

They killed off two old characters. One, they were lucky to get to use at all. The other was destined to die because that’s how this series works (the mentor passes the torch to the next generation), but is able to stick around anyway due to ghost powers. I’m not sure I understand this specific complaint.

JEDIT: Oh, I guess they killed Ackbar too. Really razing the old canon with that death.

Two out of the big three are dead, and this trilogy isn’t done yet. A lot of people expected Luke to die in the final installment. R2-D2 has been replaced by BB-8, C-3PO has been sidelined.

I’m not sure why anyone would have expected this trilogy to be about the old big three. That’s not really how this series rolls, nor would it have been practical considering their advancing age (a statement that’s making me sad now that I think of it - moment of silence for Carrie). R2 and 3PO have been sidelined since 2002 and 1999 respectively. No one goes to these movies to see them. And people seem to love BB-8 just as much them, so I’m not sure that “replacing” really backfired in anyway.

I will agree to the extent that if TROS underperforms, probably the main reason will be lack of Han Solo and Luke Skywalker, but I think that says more about how those two characters boosted the performance of TFA and TLJ. Truthfully, Disney’s lucky it got to play with the old characters at all.

I agree. The future of the franchise was always going to be in the hands of a new generation of characters. However, I question the wisdom of undoing much of the classic characters’ achievements, and then to put new similar characters in similar situations. This makes it more difficult for the new generation of characters to distuinguish themselves from the old. People remember Neil Armstrong for being the first man on the moon, but who was the person that followed in his footsteps? It would have been wiser to leave the moon to the old guard, and to have the new characters go on a trip to Mars.

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From what I’ve seen, kids of this generation are preferring marvel movies over Star Wars movies. Not that they dislike Star Wars by any means. They like it, but not as much as Marvel, hence it doesn’t have the priority like it did in the 80’s and 2000’s. No one’s fault.

I think it’s that simple.

Maul- A Star Wars Story

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This is really cool, Dre! Where are you getting these datasets from to make your graphs?

I’m wondering about how much actual marketing and advertisement plays into this. Because it’s not like they just release the movies and then wait for the masses to buy toys. Do we know how much they’re spending on marketing for the MCU compared to Star Wars?

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OutboundFlight said:

From what I’ve seen, kids of this generation are preferring marvel movies over Star Wars movies. Not that they dislike Star Wars by any means. They like it, but not as much as Marvel, hence it doesn’t have the priority like it did in the 80’s and 2000’s. No one’s fault.

I think it’s that simple.

I agree, although, as someone who was a kid in the 2000s, I’d argue LOTR was the priority before SW.

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Not mention that Harry Potter kid…

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Where were you in '77?

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RogueLeader said:

This is really cool, Dre! Where are you getting these datasets from to make your graphs?

I’m wondering about how much actual marketing and advertisement plays into this. Because it’s not like they just release the movies and then wait for the masses to buy toys. Do we know how much they’re spending on marketing for the MCU compared to Star Wars?

Thx! 😃 I got the interest data from google trends, and I just googled the toy data. The marketing budget is a good question, I will take a look at that.

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OutboundFlight said:

From what I’ve seen, kids of this generation are preferring marvel movies over Star Wars movies. Not that they dislike Star Wars by any means. They like it, but not as much as Marvel, hence it doesn’t have the priority like it did in the 80’s and 2000’s. No one’s fault.

I think it’s that simple.

They do, but this was not some preordained fact. Before 2008 there was no MCU, and so Kevin Feige and his team had to device a plan to get people to see their movies and buy their merchandise. The same was true for Kathleen Kennedy and her team by 2012, only they were starting from an existing franchise, and fanbase. In the end it’s the product and the marketing that made the customer prefer the MCU over Star Wars. That doesn’t mean the Star Wars product is bad, but a different product might have tipped the scales in the favour of Star Wars. Perhaps Star Wars is getting stale, or perhaps it’s the simultaneous introduction of saga films and spin-offs that affected the recognizability of the brand, or perhaps it’s any number of other reasons.

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Again, it’s not so much that SW has failed as Marvel has succeeded in an insane way. 23 films in 11 years, and very quickly snatching up the highest grossing franchise title (which it will hold perhaps forever - or at least our lifetimes). The reason for this incredible success is obvious: The Avengers. Here’s really a mega franchise that collects multiple sub franchises and enriched them all. That series has grown exponentially more popular with each crossover because the concept of a crossover is unprecedented, and the desire to see a live action superhero team up film was a strong one for the preexisting Marvel fan base and for others alike - and it was a desire that had been pent up for decades before it ever happened. It’d be unreasonable to expect SW to match Marvel’s success, and perhaps that was actually the problem behind a failure like Solo, where Disney was trying to more closely follow their winning Marvel formula - not every series can be Marvel, and truthfully, as of yet it’s unclear if any series can ever be.

For me, again it goes back to “who cares.” I’ll always prefer Star Wars, I did when I was a kid and it wasn’t the most popular in school, I did when TFA came out and was the biggest movie ever (sort of), and I still do even though Marvel has obviously eclipsed it and everything else. For me, I never felt like I needed my love of Star Wars validated. So, personally, I don’t care if Marvel is more successful. Maybe if they can some day make a movie as good as TFA or TLJ (let alone SW or ESB) I’ll care more. But until then, I’ll love Marvel, but I’ll just love Star Wars a little more, and how much money either makes couldn’t matter to me less.

Now I’m going to sound hypocritical, but I am curious how Marvel toy sales are doing, mainly because part of me is curious if kids even play with toys at all these days (if I knew any kids I’d ask).

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I do think it is interesting from a marketing perspective. Are artistic integrity and marketability fundamentally separate things? Can a franchise flick be substantive, but also be a vehicle for merchandising?

I think a number of factors are at play, but I wonder if the secrecy surrounding the production of these films have made them more difficult for companies like Hasbro to make toys that are consistent with the final product (here’s looking at you, Constable Zuvio).

I will be interested to see if we get any Mandalorian toys during this year’s Force Friday. It seems like a perfect opportunity to make cool toys of bounty hunters and grimy stormtroopers. If we don’t see much toys, it’ll make me wonder if there is some failure to take opportunities to merchandise the content that is available.

This is another reason why I think an Old Republic setting for future movies would be great. That time period is ripe for the imagination, full of Sith, Jedi and other mysteries. Exotic aliens and ships. Tons of opportunities for toys, if they make them.

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DominicCobb said:

Again, it’s not so much that SW has failed as Marvel has succeeded in an insane way. 23 films in 11 years, and very quickly snatching up the highest grossing franchise title (which it will hold perhaps forever - or at least our lifetimes). The reason for this incredible success is obvious: The Avengers. Here’s really a mega franchise that collects multiple sub franchises and enriched them all. That series has grown exponentially more popular with each crossover because the concept of a crossover is unprecedented, and the desire to see a live action superhero team up film was a strong one for the preexisting Marvel fan base and for others alike - and it was a desire that had been pent up for decades before it ever happened. It’d be unreasonable to expect SW to match Marvel’s success, and perhaps that was actually the problem behind a failure like Solo, where Disney was trying to more closely follow their winning Marvel formula - not every series can be Marvel, and truthfully, as of yet it’s unclear if any series can ever be.

For me, again it goes back to “who cares.” I’ll always prefer Star Wars, I did when I was a kid and it wasn’t the most popular in school, I did when TFA came out and was the biggest movie ever (sort of), and I still do even though Marvel has obviously eclipsed it and everything else. For me, I never felt like I needed my love of Star Wars validated. So, personally, I don’t care if Marvel is more successful. Maybe if they can some day make a movie as good as TFA or TLJ (let alone SW or ESB) I’ll care more. But until then, I’ll love Marvel, but I’ll just love Star Wars a little more, and how much money either makes couldn’t matter to me less.

I think that Star Wars has gone stale. I look at Star Wars these days, and it all has a sameness to it that makes the universe feel small, and inconsequential. I mean forty years have passed, and we’re still fighting stormtroopers, and have former star Jedi pupils running amok. We’re still trying to defeat space Nazis. We get the same visuals with minor updates. In the end they’re all just pale reflections of what once was fresh and original. As fans we can get excited, or angry about cranky Luke, but from a general audience perspective isn’t cranky Luke just Obi-Wan/Yoda with a twist? Isn’t Kylo Ren just Darth Vader Light? Isn’t Rey just a female Luke. As fans we may get excited about a Sith Trooper, but isn’t the general audience going to look at them, and go sarcastically: “O wow, a red stormtrooper, how exciting…”? Did we really need origin stories for classic characters, showing us things we already knew, or didn’t care to know? Isn’t the real issue here, that Star Wars is still stuck in the past, while the MCU has offered something new (in cinema terms), fresh, and exciting? What are we really expecting from TROS? The rebels beat the Empire again. Darth Vader gets redeemed again. Where are the endless possibilities? Star Wars has failed from a certain point of view. It has failed to stay fresh. Star Wars has become a franchise for old people trying to rekindle their youth.

I seriously hope come December JJ offers up something truly unique and exciting both narratively and visually.

Now I’m going to sound hypocritical, but I am curious how Marvel toy sales are doing, mainly because part of me is curious if kids even play with toys at all these days (if I knew any kids I’d ask).

While exact numbers are hard to find, Avengers toys are the main force behind Hasbro’s success right now:

https://www.businessinsider.nl/hasbro-toy-sales-crush-estimates-boosted-by-avengers-endgame-2019-7/

Revenue expectation for Marvel toys for 2018 were approx. $500 M, which is in line with the toy revenue prediction model I showed based on google trend data. So, yes kids still play with toys, just not as much with Star Wars toys. Also the relationship I established between general interest in Star Wars and toy sales works for data from 2005 to 2019, and so there’s no real evidence that lower toy sales for Star Wars are related to a decreased interest in toys in general. Interest in the various properties seem to drive toy sales with a successful property generates interest, boosting toy sales in general, like Endgame in 2019, while less successful properties result in less interest and disappointing toy sales.

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 (Edited)

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

I’ll add a different interpretation of events - in the interests of balance…

Critics were not, from the very beginning, ‘branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not’. I recall people associated with the films made it clear that valid and genuine criticism was okay and differing opinions on it were fine, and that they couldn’t please everybody out there (as it has been for many previous films and franchises) - which are reasonable and fair enough views.

I imagine over time the death threats, announcements of their deaths, actors being harassed and abused to the point of being chased off social media, as well as becoming aware of the abhorrent racist and sexist comments online… took their toll. Friends, family and associates explaining to others around them (including kids) that so and so isn’t actually dead as been posted up on the internet (news like this spreads quickly - who knew?) - and does have an effect on people.

Yet people around the film still stated it’s okay to have differing or critical opinion - though some people around the film and franchise also called out the more toxic, sexist and racist elements - and rightfully so.

Unfortunately, in doing this, some of the critics with genuine and valid issues have somehow seemingly felt their views were denied or rubbished - or somehow their legitimate criticisms were being put in with those sexist, racist and toxic views.

Also, some of the more more clickbait and monetised based media - used this criticism of the sexist, racist and toxic views - and spun it as criticism of many people who just didn’t like the film itself - further polarising the fanbase - yet also ensuring future subscribers and revenue streams.
 

^ https://twitter.com/rianjohnson/status/1004073917990879233?s=20
 

^ https://twitter.com/rianjohnson/status/1004783228614406144?s=20

 

Profiting from hate and division, it seems, is a nice little earner. Especially online in the age of monetised channels. Some of the more toxic channels have come together in a bid to boost their respective subscriber lists and revenues with other like-minded social media outlets.

And those that do profit from hate and division won’t be giving that nice little earner up anytime soon…

 

It’s a shame that more people who have genuine and valid issues with the film - seemingly do not call out others who do derogatorily criticise it on the basis of gender, race, sexual orientation, and disability more often - and instead stay quiet, or ignore it, or overlook it.

Or even criticise people who have taken issue with those that have these abhorrent views - seemingly because they mistakenly feel attacked for having genuine criticisms of the film.

 

Feel free to disagree, tear it apart, or whatever. That’s all I’ll be saying on the subject in here - and I don’t wish to derail DrDre’s intriguing thread.
 

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I find that answer vague and unconvincing.
 
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Author
Time

I’ll predict The Rise of Skywalker to do $700,000,000 domestic and $1,400,000,000 worldwide. That’s more than The Last Jedi and less than The Force Awakens, very respectable.

This is of course before seeing a full trailer and experiencing the full marketing hype. Some positive word of mouth combined with the holiday season could considerably increase those numbers.

Not everyone who didn’t like The Last Jedi is a hater or a troll. Likewise, not everyone who enjoyed it is a undiscerning fanboy who just eats up whatever they put out. Broad generalizations about large groups of people are bound to have multiple flaws, so why not just ignore them.

Author
Time

oojason said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.

Personally I don’t think we should be cheering for the failures of things that refuse to play it safe or don’t fear what will happen if they don’t satiate the desires of some fans. I couldn’t care less what the fandom at large (or at small) thinks. I just care if it’s good or not.

The divide between fans goes well beyond the merits of a single movie. A climate has been created by the creators, media, and fandom, that has led to some very ugly situations, and people being demonized for having an opinion on a movie, whether positive or negative. If that climate is perpetuated, I won’t care about the future of the franchise one way or the other. Star Wars to me is more than a bunch of films, it is a relationship, and the fandom is an integral part of that relationship. If the fandom is broken, all that will be left is a bunch of blockbusters with the Star Wars brand slapped on it. So, I believe the creators should think out of the box AND do their part to make that relationship work.

That ‘climate,’ hate to break it to you, is largely imaginary.

Personally I find it easy to separate the work from the fandom. Most fandoms are obnoxious, SW perhaps moreso than many. Personally, I’m not going to let that affect my enjoy of the films any time soon.

There’s nothing imaginary about being called an SJW for liking Holdo, and Rose Tico, or a misogynist or man baby for disliking those same characters.

The imaginary claim is in regards to the creators. Yeah, the fandom says stupid shit. That’s why I said fandom is obnoxious and best ignored.

The fandom, the media, and Lucasfilm employees have directly or indirectly kept adding fuel to the fire. From the very beginning critics were branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not, and not just by obnoxious fans. In the mean time Lucasfilm, and Disney did very little to set the record straight, that most critical fans had no association with toxic elements in the fandom. So, yes the creators didn’t directly attack fans for the most part. They had the media do the dirty work for them. All they had to do is stay silent, while the critics were all painted with the same toxic brush. I guess, it was in their interest to perpetuate the myth, that criticism against their products was mostly limited to toxic fans, driven by sinister motives, and Russian bots. Let’s get real here, even on this forum the motives of critics are continually questioned. We’re annoying, unreasonable people, that didn’t get what we want, and therefore hate Disney Star Wars, and desperately want it to fail…

I’ll add a different interpretation of events - in the interests of balance…

Critics were not, from the very beginning, ‘branded as haters, misogynists, manbabies, and what not’. I recall people associated with the films made it clear that valid and genuine criticism was okay and differing opinions on it were fine, and that they couldn’t please everybody out there (as it has been for many previous films and franchises) - which are reasonable and fair enough views.

I imagine over time the death threats, announcements of their deaths, actors being harassed and abused to the point of being chased off social media, as well as becoming aware of the abhorrent racist and sexist comments online… took their toll. Friends, family and associates explaining to others around them (including kids) that so and so isn’t actually dead as been posted up on the internet (news like this spreads quickly - who knew?) - and does have an effect on people.

Yet people around the film still stated it’s okay to have differing or critical opinion - though some people around the film and franchise also called out the more toxic, sexist and racist elements - and rightfully so.

Unfortunately, in doing this, some of the critics with genuine and valid issues have somehow seemingly felt their views were denied or rubbished - or somehow their legitimate criticisms were being put in with those sexist, racist and toxic views.

Also, some of the more more clickbait and monetised based media - used this criticism of the sexist, racist and toxic views - and spun it as criticism of many people who just didn’t like the film itself - further polarising the fanbase - yet also ensuring future subscribers and revenue streams.
 

Profiting from hate and division, it seems, is a nice little earner. Especially online in the age of monetised channels. Some of the more toxic channels have come together in a bid to boost their respective subscriber lists and revenues with other like-minded social media outlets.

And those that do profit from hate and division won’t be giving that nice little earner up anytime soon…

 

It’s a shame that more people who have genuine and valid issues with the film - seemingly do not call out others who do derogatorily criticise it on the basis of gender, race, sexual orientation, and disability more often - and instead stay quiet, or ignore it, or overlook it.

Or even criticise people who have taken issue with those that have these abhorrent views - seemingly because they mistakenly feel attacked for having genuine criticisms of the film.

 

Feel free to disagree, tear it apart, or whatever. That’s all I’ll be saying on the subject in here - and I don’t wish to derail DrDre’s intriguing thread.
 

I can get behind this. Nice one!