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Episode IX: The Rise Of Skywalker - Discussion * SPOILER THREAD * — Page 100

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dgraham414 said:

Anyone have thoughts on the apparent Death Star wielding star destroyers that the Sith troopers are apparently a part of. With red ties and everything. Seems dumb and I hope it’s not true

The idea of having ANOTHER Death Star just makes me sad. Even if it is like 5 small ones it’s still lazy. No more planet killing super weapons. Please…

Before scrolling down to other comments I thought you meant the Sith Troopers were wearing actual ties! I was like “eh, they’re in business suits now? That’s lame…”

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Troopers with ties would have made for a nice obscure Spaceballs reference. 😉

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Where were you in '77?

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screams in the void said:

Shopping Maul said:

And there was this gem…

https://makingstarwars.tumblr.com/post/42857438667/1980s-fantastic-films-collectors-edition-20

Wow , just read that article and while it got a lot wrong , it did predict the episode 1 plot of Darth Vader starting out as a slave boy , and the pain inducing collar is not too unlike the chip that blows you up if you try to escape . Interesting that they knew the name Anakin Skywalker at this time . Where did that name first appear ?

I totally missed that! Maybe Lucas leaked it somewhere. The first I heard of it was ROTJ.

I’ve always liked the idea of Fett as ‘the other’. The implication that Fett had infiltrated the Empire by way of doing dirty work for Vader - and was secretly sparing his victims (“no disintegrations”) to raise an army - makes a lot of sense I think.

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SilverWook said:

screams in the void said:

Shopping Maul said:

And there was this gem…

https://makingstarwars.tumblr.com/post/42857438667/1980s-fantastic-films-collectors-edition-20

Wow , just read that article and while it got a lot wrong , it did predict the episode 1 plot of Darth Vader starting out as a slave boy , and the pain inducing collar is not too unlike the chip that blows you up if you try to escape . Interesting that they knew the name Anakin Skywalker at this time . Where did that name first appear ?

That’s a good question, as I never heard it before ROTJ came out. Maybe Lucas dropped it in an interview at some point?

Star Wars Poster Monthly also went off on a lot of crazy speculative tangents, and that was an officially licensed publication! The only one I recall off the top of my head was one about the OT troopers being clones and how they were trained. Not sure if they were getting notes from Lucasfilm or making stuff up.
There are only three issues online that I know of.
http://www.theforce.net/timetales/misc/arcana/arcana.asp

Wow , nice find Silverwook ! I remember reading some of the poster monthly’s that I borrowed from a friend back in the early 80’s after Empire came out and being fascinated by the photos in them , I vividly remember one of the Imperial Walkers coming over the ridge .Thank you for posting that link , talk about rabbit holes ! Just read some of this one and it mentions the 12 film saga as well as the love triangle between Luke , Han and Leia …http://www.theforce.net/image_popup/image_popup_global.asp?Image=timetales/misc/arcana/pos15-02.jpg

https://screamsinthevoid.deviantart.com/

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SilverWook said:

Fantastic Films did a series of articles attempting to predict what would happen in ROTJ. This is the only issue I could find.
https://archive.org/details/Fantastic_Films_028_April_1982_vol4_no4_c2c-Tranzor-HQS

“One thing that will not happen is that Han will come back and marry Leia without a word or protest from Luke Skywalker?”

That was a good laugh. While we don’t know if the marriage ever happened, it might as well have and witout a word of protest from Luke. Love it.

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I found an interesting article that shows the strong relation between google searches (and trailer searches), and the box office success of blockbusters:

https://tubularinsights.com/do-youtube-movie-trailer-searches-correlate-to-box-office/

The full research paper:

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=http://ssl.gstatic.com/think/docs/quantifying-movie-magic_research-studies.pdf&chrome=true

In light of this paper I decided to do my own little analysis with google trends to see how TROS stacks up to previous Star Wars releases, and it’s not looking good for the upcoming film. I restricted myself to google searches in the US that start a year before the release date up till six months after the release date, and looked at the interest and the cumulative interest over that time frame. Here’s the outcome:

The reference point here is RO which has the highest peak interest, which is set at 100. As can be seen the cumulative interest for TFA has been the highest of all the films considered here, and the cumulative interest for Solo over the entire 18 month period has been the lowest. However, looking at the cumulative curve for episode IX/TROS after 7 months the overall interest is the lowest of all films considered including the box office flop Solo. It also seems interest in Star Wars has been on a steady decline in general since TFA’s release. There’s still some time to go before TROS will be released, so things might change, and it will be interesting to follow its progress, but it’s safe to conclude that interest for a Star Wars film four months prior to release has never been so low, and so I think the powers that be should be concerned, about what the future will hold in box office terms.

Ps.

Incidentally this analysis coincides with Bloomberg’s article on the struggling Star Wars franchise:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-07/star-wars-is-struggling-to-win-over-the-marvel-generation

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Trailer searches? I wasn’t aware the trailer for TROS was even out yet.

(Likely soon though - along with the PR machine kicking in with adverts, promos, tie-ins and merchandising etc…)
 

They’ll still take our money at the cinema kiosk for TROS come December, yes?
 

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here?
And say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

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oojason said:

Trailer searches? I wasn’t aware the trailer for TROS was even out yet.

(Likely soon though - along with the PR machine kicking in with adverts, promos, tie-ins and merchandising etc…)
 

The article on google search, and trailers is about movies in general, not Star Wars specifically. However, the teaser for TROS on the official channel currently stands at 33 mio views compared to 44 mio for TLJ, if that is any indication. The total views for TROS seem to have been higher compared to TFA and TLJ:

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-trailer-views-trending-higher-than-the-last-jedi/

The PR machine for all Disney films has followed a pretty similar trajectory, so while it’s early days, the difference in interest (as measured by google trends) thusfar is quite significant, but I will keep following its progress over the next few months.

They’ll still take our money at the cinema kiosk for TROS come December, yes?
 

Sure!

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DrDre said:

oojason said:

Trailer searches? I wasn’t aware the trailer for TROS was even out yet.

(Likely soon though - along with the PR machine kicking in with adverts, promos, tie-ins and merchandising etc…)
 

The article on google search, and trailers is about movies in general, not Star Wars specifically. However, the teaser for TROS on the official channel currently stands at 33 mio views compared to 44 mio for TLJ, if that is any indication. The total views for TROS seem to have been higher compared to TFA and TLJ:

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-trailer-views-trending-higher-than-the-last-jedi/

The PR machine for all Disney films has followed a pretty similar trajectory, so while it’s early days, the difference in interest (as measured by google trends) thusfar is quite significant, but I will keep following its progress over the next few months.

They’ll still take our money at the cinema kiosk for TROS come December, yes?
 

Sure!

The official trailer might be released at D23 Expo later this month in Anaheim.

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DrDre said:

oojason said:

Trailer searches? I wasn’t aware the trailer for TROS was even out yet.

(Likely soon though - along with the PR machine kicking in with adverts, promos, tie-ins and merchandising etc…)
 

The article on google search, and trailers is about movies in general, not Star Wars specifically. However, the teaser for TROS on the official channel currently stands at 33 mio views compared to 44 mio for TLJ, if that is any indication. The total views for TROS seem to have been higher compared to TFA and TLJ:

https://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-trailer-views-trending-higher-than-the-last-jedi/

The PR machine for all Disney films has followed a pretty similar trajectory, so while it’s early days, the difference in interest (as measured by google trends) thusfar is quite significant, but I will keep following its progress over the next few months.

Remember to factor in (or note) other social media too mate; and not just facebook, twitter and instagram etc - but also news-streams, and the rising popularity/use of reddit subs and also fan-made/fan-run You Tube channels as growing mediums for this (over the past couple of years especially), for people online to find / retrieve trailers and other assorted film promos & info.

 

Though I imagine for many people they’re more interested in the content and quality of TROS itself - along with it’s place in the Sequel Trilogy and also the Main Saga. And are not too concerned with comparisons of other brands and franchises etc or google search data - though if you wish delve deeper into this then I suggest a more relevant (or new) thread.

(one which may likely find a wider audience and have more input into the discussion too - whether for TROS itself, the wider Sequel Trilogy, or the Disney era films so far - R1 & Solo included? etc)
 

originaltrilogy.com Moderator

Why don’t you knock it off with them negative waves? Why don’t you dig how beautiful it is out here?
And say something righteous and hopeful for a change?

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As much as I hope you’re wrong… I freaking love data sets like this

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So I am reading it right that Rogue One had more search hits than even TFA?

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RogueLeader said:

So I am reading it right that Rogue One had more search hits than even TFA?

At its peak yes, but overall interest for TFA remained at higher levels over a longer period of time.

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Really cool chart! Thanks, Dre.

TROS won’t do as poorly as the chart currently indicates, I don’t think. Though you don’t need a chart to predict that it’s going to be the worst performing film of the Sequel Trilogy. I don’t think it’s going to bomb as hard as the Solo movie. Might make a modest profit by Disney standards.

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If I recall correctly, ROTS and ROTJ both performed better than AOTC and ESB respectively, so I like to think TROS will at least continue this trend. But if doesn’t perform as well, I like to think it will be closer to TLJ on that chart than to Solo. It might be worth revisiting after the trailer drops and the marketing kicks in.

Thanks for sharing, Dre!

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Going on a tangent, it seems like there has been more speculation recently what we might find out about Rey’s origins in IX, because apparently there is more to that story in the film.

It seems the theories have been ranging from Kerri Russell’s character being her mom, stuff related to Palpatine, a lot of “Rey is a clone” theories for some odd reason, and I have a friend that is still adamant that Rey is a Skywalker.

I think we tend to blow the little hints we get about the movie out of proportion, so I have what I think is a modest theory:

Rey meets someone (maybe Kerri Russell’s character) who might know where her parents are. Maybe they’re not dead like Kylo thought. Maybe Zorri is the one who gave them a ride off Jakku, since people keep comparing her ship in the trailer to the one we see leave Jakku in Rey’s forceback vision. So, Rey ends up having a choice to either continue her mission with the Resistance, or find the parents she has wanted back all these years. But in the end, she lets that desire go and chooses to her new found family, Poe, Finn, Rose, etc.

Knowing my luck it will probably be some big reveal, but I honestly would be happy with something rather modest.

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If the leak in this article has any validity then it sounds like TROS will be the third ST movie to continue with the soft reboot / remake in repeating and reusing many plot points and elements from the OT, in particular ROTJ for what this article talks about which is essentially ANOTHER Death Star but as a ship this time (still thats going on four! Or FIVE if you’re just talking about the use of “Death Star tech”) that can at the least take out whole continents or possibly even up to whole planets again as it reportedly has the same power level of the first DS.

Apparently it even has a trench in its design for what would be the third trench run now, though to be mimicking ROTJ they would need to fly into the ship in order to destroy it.

https://movieweb.com/rise-of-skywalker-onager-star-destroyer-star-wars/

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Valheru_84 said:

If the leak in this article has any validity then it sounds like TROS will be the third ST movie to continue with the soft reboot / remake in repeating and reusing many plot points and elements from the OT, in particular ROTJ for what this article talks about which is essentially ANOTHER Death Star but as a ship this time (still thats going on four! Or FIVE if you’re just talking about the use of “Death Star tech”) that can at the least take out whole continents or possibly even up to whole planets again as it reportedly has the same power level of the first DS.

Apparently it even has a trench in its design for what would be the third trench run now, though to be mimicking ROTJ they would need to fly into the ship in order to destroy it.

https://movieweb.com/rise-of-skywalker-onager-star-destroyer-star-wars/

This “article” went from tabletop board game piece to Ep. IX Death Star trench run with about as much evidence as a kangaroo court.

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Valheru_84 said:

If the leak in this article has any validity then it sounds like TROS will be the third ST movie to continue with the soft reboot / remake in repeating and reusing many plot points and elements from the OT, in particular ROTJ for what this article talks about which is essentially ANOTHER Death Star but as a ship this time (still thats going on four! Or FIVE if you’re just talking about the use of “Death Star tech”) that can at the least take out whole continents or possibly even up to whole planets again as it reportedly has the same power level of the first DS.

Apparently it even has a trench in its design for what would be the third trench run now, though to be mimicking ROTJ they would need to fly into the ship in order to destroy it.

https://movieweb.com/rise-of-skywalker-onager-star-destroyer-star-wars/

Well, if you really look at it, when you consider when the first Death Star was finished, it makes sense that that type of weapon can be scaled down and mounted on a ship. It makes a lot more sense than Starkiller base. Something tells me that that one is one of the pieces that came from Lucas. Just the sort of thing he would do.

But while we are talking about repeating elements, the PT had a fair share of repeating as well. It shared a lot of plot points with the OT. A lot.

And when you think about it, the hero of these films (Anakin, Luke, Rey) has yet to personally defeat the evil. Anakin did throw Palpatine over the railing, but during Luke’s time as hero. So Rey having a bigger part in Palpatine’s downfall would be an awesome way to round things out. And maybe we might see a redeemed Ben Solo live to see the end. Just hopeful guessing there.

And when it comes to graphs with Google, they are only as good as the data. If, as I am guessing, many people find the trailers via other means (such as the many social media venues) then they don’t need to use a search engine to find it. The fact that the views for the TROS teaser are at 75% of the views of TLJ indicates that people are finding the trailer other ways. So don’t take too much stock on one statistic. It might not be very accurate depending on the current links to things on the internet.

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yotsuya said:

Valheru_84 said:

If the leak in this article has any validity then it sounds like TROS will be the third ST movie to continue with the soft reboot / remake in repeating and reusing many plot points and elements from the OT, in particular ROTJ for what this article talks about which is essentially ANOTHER Death Star but as a ship this time (still thats going on four! Or FIVE if you’re just talking about the use of “Death Star tech”) that can at the least take out whole continents or possibly even up to whole planets again as it reportedly has the same power level of the first DS.

Apparently it even has a trench in its design for what would be the third trench run now, though to be mimicking ROTJ they would need to fly into the ship in order to destroy it.

https://movieweb.com/rise-of-skywalker-onager-star-destroyer-star-wars/

Well, if you really look at it, when you consider when the first Death Star was finished, it makes sense that that type of weapon can be scaled down and mounted on a ship. It makes a lot more sense than Starkiller base. Something tells me that that one is one of the pieces that came from Lucas. Just the sort of thing he would do.

But while we are talking about repeating elements, the PT had a fair share of repeating as well. It shared a lot of plot points with the OT. A lot.

And when you think about it, the hero of these films (Anakin, Luke, Rey) has yet to personally defeat the evil. Anakin did throw Palpatine over the railing, but during Luke’s time as hero. So Rey having a bigger part in Palpatine’s downfall would be an awesome way to round things out. And maybe we might see a redeemed Ben Solo live to see the end. Just hopeful guessing there.

And when it comes to graphs with Google, they are only as good as the data. If, as I am guessing, many people find the trailers via other means (such as the many social media venues) then they don’t need to use a search engine to find it. The fact that the views for the TROS teaser are at 75% of the views of TLJ indicates that people are finding the trailer other ways. So don’t take too much stock on one statistic. It might not be very accurate depending on the current links to things on the internet.

The trailers is only a small part of the article. The article mainly focusses on google search queries on movies, and how that correlates with box office results, a relationship that has been established with scientific methods. Now, you and others have argued people access information via other paths, but that isn’t relevant in light of the following:

Google Trends shows the relative popularity of a search query. In other words, relative popularity is the ratio of a query’s search volume to the sum of the search volumes of all possible queries.

In other words even if other social media venues take a significant share of the action, it wouldn’t affect the relative popularity of search queries, unless you believe only Star Wars fans seek out other paths, which doesn’t seem a very realistic premise. The fact is that a recent movie like Endgame showed a significant increase in interest on google trends compared to previous MCU entries, and subsequently became the financially most successful MCU release thusfar, highlights the validity of the relationship that has been established by the authors of the article.

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The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

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DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches. As such it is not a waste of time, any more than it is a waste of time to predict the weather, a prediction which in both cases tends to be more often right than wrong.

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DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

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DominicCobb said:

DrDre said:

DominicCobb said:

The speculation about how the film may or may not perform is a complete waste of time.

In what sense? In this case it is not just speculation, it is a prediction based on a model, that has been scientifically validated, a model which shows movies with less interest on google trends tend to have lower box office returns, whereas higher interest generally leads to higher box office returns. So, it is simply an indicator, an indicator which gets more accurate as the movie’s release date approaches.

The truth will be in the proverbial pudding. Until then you can pat your back that everyone hates Disney Star Wars as much as you do. But the fact of the matter is, when the film is released, it’ll make the company a fair bit of money either way. And ultimately, who cares? The ST is done no matter how the film performs. The idea that Star Wars is ‘dead’ or will be after the film comes out is delusional. Disney will release more Star Wars films whether you like them or not. The only possible effect a disappointing box office run might have on the future of the franchise is that they’ll give into the nebulous desire for more of “what the fans want,” which is not something anyone should be foaming at the mouth for.

This is nonsense. I don’t hate Disney Star Wars anymore than I hated the prequels. I think both trilogies are deeply flawed, but they have their merits as well. I also haven’t stated, I expect Star Wars to be ‘dead’ in the future. So, I don’t know where all these baseless statements are coming from. I thought we had moved past these sort of outbursts, but I guess not.

The fact is interest in the franchise is waning, and I’m certainly curious about what Disney is going to do about it, and how TROS is going fit into that picture, both in terms of the current interest in the franchise, and the direction TROS might give for the future.