Frank your Majesty said:
For me, this wouldn’t make sense. The distribution rights for Star Wars won’t go back to Disney, only for Empire and Jedi. If Disney wanted to piss off Fox by not sharing the money for the last two movies, why wouldn’t Fox simply prevent them from releasing Star Wars altogether? How could Disney release an OOT without the first movie?

Well, the corollary is why would Fox refuse to do a deal after May 2020? We come back to the old argument they would likely never turn down free money. Sure Fox might want to do a deal now, but Disney (in their interest) tells them nah, they’re not interested at this time. After May 2020, Disney approaches Fox and says they are finally interested.

Of course FOX could say F*** you guys, but that’s not likely. Maybe they get 1/3 of what they would get now, but it’s still profit and I’m sure they would take it.