Sounds great! I have a couple of comments.

I wouldn't necessarily limit yourself to 200 minutes, it just seems arbitrary. Better to have great scene flow and nice clean edits and let the time fall where it may. In other words, don't cut something purely for time reasons, cut it because it doesn't belong, or because is doesn't fit properly.

My one suggestion for DoS is to try and get rid of the fact that they basically reveal exactly how the dragon is going to be killed very early on. My recollection from the book was that there was much more tension about this point and it doesn't all come together until Smaug is attacking Laketown. I could be remembering wrong though... it's been a while. Basically, when I was watching the movie, I felt that Smaug didn't really pose a threat since we knew who was going to kill him, where and with exactly what weapon.