Sony is in this for the long haul, and they'll take another loss on the hardware in order to achieve market dominance. They also know that modern "game machines" are being sold more to young adults with deep pockets than to kids, so it wouldn't surprise me if they take the chance of bumping up the introductory price to $400 USD and easing their losses a bit. Game addicts will bitch like crazy, then hand over their credit cards.
I don't think Sony will go with a rich man (BluRay) / poor man (no BluRay) dual PS3 release. Don't forget that incorporating BluRay into the PS3 isn't just about being able to play movies; the extra storage space will certainly help push the next generation of games even closer to reality. With two different machines, developers would be forced to choose between maximizing game quality by taking advantage of the massive capacity of BluRay or maximizing sales by making games that are compatible with both machines. You also end up with format confusion among consumers, not to mention a separate production line, which would drive up manufacturing costs even further. Running two different lines might even negate any cost savings incurred by building a non-BluRay machine.