Yeah, it would have to do close to $200 million to match 1997 dollars, which it won't even come close to, not even half. I'm expecting that it will probably do about the same as ESB/ROTJ in 1997, which is about $50-70 million, but these things are hard to predict. The only competition it has is Journey 2, so it will definitely take the number one spot on opening weekend--maybe $30 million--and the next week will probably stay within the top 5 as Ghost Rider comes out, and then it'll trickle down until Lorax and John Carter force it out of 3D theatres once March comes around. It really all depends on the strength of that opening weekend; if it does only something like $20 million, which is more than the number one movie right now actually, then it might be considered a bomb, but it could easily have a $40 million or $50 million opening if the fans come out in droves. I think it's too hard to predict, and it's quite a gamble on the part of Lucas.
I've seen people claim the 3D conversion itself costs as high as $30 million (the cost of TF3 3D), although going by the rule of thumb for conversion costs (100 grand per minute) and comparable to other 3D films it should be more like $15 million; Lucas himself stated earlier this year that the conversion of ANH had already far surpassed the $11 million budget of the original film. So at a highball $30 million Lucasfilm actually might have a hard time turning a profit unless this is another 1997-level box office surprise. And it won't be. No one cares about Episode I like they did the original, and even though there are millions of prequel fans out there, I sincerely doubt there are enough to make this a huge blockbuster again. And if this thing only finishes with $50 million, which would put the film as a loss if the conversion itself is $30 million, the whole series will probably be cancelled since I imagine Episode II will do about 60% of Episode I's business. And there won't be a home video market to pick up the slack either, since this already is on BD.
Personally, I have some doubts about whether this 3D series will survive because of this, if they just put the OT out first it would cover the costs of the weaker entries (prequels), but instead they are going about it backwards and only putting out the money-makers if the weak films do strong money, which seems counter-intuitive. Each prequel film has to approach the $80 million mark to be considered a huge success, and that's not likely to happen, even if it was the summer. I guess we will know by next sunday. Either it has a weak debut at $20 million and Lucasfilm loses a huge amount of money and the 3D series gets the axe or it has a strong $40 million opening and Lucasfilm has to wait one more week to see if it has legs. Because it could easily have a huge opening weekend and still be a bomb if it has massive drop off. Green Hornet debuted at $33 million last January, which was really good, but then it made almost no money at all after that. People just don't go to the movies in February unless it's really special. The 1997 OT releases are the only real instances of a January/February blockbuster in modern history. But maybe Lucasfilm's sales numbers for prequel stuff is higher than we think. I mean look at the BD sales. It's always tough to gauge prequel sales. And it's also tough to gauge Lucas' bluff--how successful will it have to be to get the others? Just a little, or really huge? Because if it comes out next sunday with $30 million it will be a little, but is that enough? Was Lucasfilm only doing this because they assumed it would be huge? If so, a healthy profit may still be seen as a failure.
Most predictions from the pros that I've just googled peg it at around $65 million total, but this seems high since they peg the opening week at around $25 million--I don't think it will have very strong staying power. If it does $25 in week one, it will do $15 in week two and less than $10 in week three, and then it's gone, and those are generous fall-off predictions, and based on that math it puts it at around $45 million when it bows out, about the same as Beauty and the Beast 3D that's just about to leave theatres this week. I'm expecting it to do better business than that, but I think the film will have basically made all its money by the end of the second weekend. Luckily for Lucasfilm the high priced ticket sales will inflate the numbers.