So...

In last season's finale, we see Jacob and MIB talking in the shadow of the statue... it's morning and they're looking at a boat offshore that Jacob claims to have brought to the island.

In this episode, the Black Rock crashes in the island when 100 ft (?) waves mercilessly drag it there, crashing through the statue and marooning the ship pretty far inland.

Was this later that day? Or was the boat in "The Incident" not the Black Rock? MIB's hair is completely different, but it was a week or so later when we saw him so maybe he had it cut?

005:

Good call on the bottle and the island explosion. I think the alt stuff is when Jacob didn't touch their lives. Especially in the case of Ford/Sawyer. If Jacob wasn't there to hand him a pen, then he never crystalized his hatred for Cooper into that letter that drove him to be a conman himself. I think the alt stuff looks better than the "real stuff" we've been seeing for years, but in the end it will be worse. Perhaps the evil is out, like you said.

My other thought is that The Numbers are the The Numbers only because they are next to The Names. And in the Valenzetti Eq, you're supposed to change The Numbers (or The People) to prevent the End of the World. If Jacob was unable (due to the incident) to touch or change the People, then their own lives would be happier... but they will end when the world ends. In the reality where Jacob does influence them, their lives kind of suck- but it's necessary to keep the world from ending.