lordjedi said:zombie84 said:Blu-Ray is a niche format that will eventually become a standard format, because HDTV is a niche format that will eventually become a standard format.
I know far more people that have HDTVs than have Blu-ray players. I'd say that HDTV is not a niche format.
By virtue of the fact that it only represents a minority of the television market it is a niche, just like Blu-Ray is by virtue of the fact that it also represents a minority of the home video market.
People can buy an HDTV for very little (as you say below), hook it up to their HD cable or satellite, and enjoy a stunning picture right away. And if they have an upscaling DVD player, their old DVDs will now look even better than they did before.
Then thats exactly the same as how people can buy a Blu Ray player for extremely little and just hook it up as well. How is this relevant as far as the asserted failing of Blu Ray is concerned?
DVD players didn't come down because the format war ended or because recordable players emerged; I don't think most people even knew about the format war, and no one uses recordable DVD anyway.
I knew several people at the time, that were not technical at all, that knew about Divx. One of them even bought a player because he felt it was the better buy, despite all the drawbacks.
Well, despite your own personal experience, i thought it was common knowledge that like 90% of people out there had no idea it was going on. Most people didn't even know of DVD itself until around 1999. I guarantee you if you go up to someone and say "DivX format" they'll think your talking about the computer codec, if they even know what you are talking about at all. Especially outside of the US, DivX is about as well known by your average person as the RCA video disks.
As for Blu-Ray--here's the thing. I don't think anyone ever expected it to replace DVD, so why are people disappointed that its sales are not as good as DVDs?
I don't know where you got this idea. Every article I've ever read since Blu-ray's inception has made the case that Blu-ray is so much better that it was going to replace DVD.
Well, true there are a lot of uninformed morons out there, and whenever any format comes out theres all sorts of people that just swoop in and proclaim it the next big thing. But no one who ever properly understood the reality of the business expected it to replace DVD in the same way that DVD replaced VHS (ie a seemingly-rapid pace and instant adoption). Most people didnt even realise that DVD started off relatively slowly compared to its later reputation. Blu Ray could never replace DVD in the same way DVD replaced VHS because it requires HD sets, so before that happens you have to ask yourself "when are HD monitors going to replace SD ones?" This process has to occur first. But those people are probably correct in that, IN THE LONG TERM, Blu Ray will be the next DVD in that it will be the next home video standard. But it wont happen until HD supplants SD, and that is still a few years off. The common sentiment I've always found, at least from anyone with an opinion worth listening to, is that BR will inherit the mantle of DVD in the sense that it will be the next-level video standard but not in the sense that DVD will become (literally) obsolete right away.
DVD was a success that had never been seen in home video, and probably won't be ever again, at least in our lifetimes.
Never going to need more than 1 MB of RAM either, huh?
While it is possible, IMO it is very unlikely that the success of DVD will be seen again. It was a completlely unlikely coalescing of elements that enabled it to grow with the speed and infiltrate the market in the manner in which it did, and they are entirely accidental. VHS didnt happen like this, neither did Laserdisc, CED, Blu Ray, HD-DVD, VHS-D or any other format. The reason is because the sheer number of coincidenes and circumstances that would allow them to supplant the reigning format with DVDs speed are so unlikely that just based on probabibility it is unlikely to be seen again in the next few decades (as far as traditional, hard-copy, retail-based media goes).
DVD you could just hook up to your TV and be blown away by the quality, but Blu-Ray requires you to have a completely different television set, and jump between Blu-Ray and DVD isn't nearly as dramatic so there's not as much drive for "you gotta see THIS!!".
I don't know where people get this. A Blu-ray with 1080p is over double the resolution of a 480p DVD. DVD was double that of VHS (usually around 240 lines). Sure, it's best viewed on a screen larger than 32", but I was never really blown away by the quality of a DVD on my 27" TV. What blew me away was the ability to freeze frame without the frame jumping, select scenes at random, and high speed skip through the movie. Add in the commentary and other extra features and I was hooked.
VHS also had lots of noise and tape distortion and things of that nature as well--DVD was the first time people got a really clear, sharp picture, and THAT was really what hadn't been seen before. Now that people are accustomed to that, the increase in resolution doesn't seem as dramatic as that jump from low-quality magnetic tape. But it also had to do with the plethora of supplemental features like digital surround sound and commentary tracks and animated menus that added to the wow factor, as you pointed out. Now that thats all common, BR really just comes down to resolution in terms of its appeal, which isn't as dramatic.
I'd say Blu Ray will be the standard home video format by about 2016, if it can hang in there for the next two years or so.
2016? By that time, I expect HD streaming to become common place. Verizon already streams the DVR over the FiOS link. If they can do that today, there's nothing stopping them from streaming an HD video directly to a media center that is either leased or owned.
People will still want disk-based media. Streaming will replace the rental market one day, probably, but people still want to have a hard-copy with a nice package that they can put on their shelves, appreciate, bring with them places. Especially because of DVD, the home video market is a market of collectors, and I'm talking about much of the average consumer fanbase, not just the real collectors that pick up the deluxe limited pressings and such. Look at the music industry, not only are CDs still alive and selling more than they were during some years in the 90s but vinyl records have made a huge comeback. People have always been hard-copy collectors because its satisfying to have that physical library on a shelf--whether it is books, vinyl records, CDs, VHS tapes or DVDs. Streaming, in the near future at least--who knows how consumer trends will be in a decade and a half for now--is just a sort of lazy, "lets see whats on" type of rental/television thing, not a replacement for the buyers market.