i think that blu-ray is just a stop-gap measure before another standard takes its place, or more people go digital..
just as digital downloads have replaced/outpaced physical sales with music.. it COULD happen with movies also, given the right combination of infrastructure / pricing / availability...
i'd like to think blu-ray will become a high-end videophile niche, much like what happened to laserdisc....
it will never go away, unless and IF, (and that's a big IF), they start discontinuing dvd's, and go blu-ray exclusive.. that would really push the format along....or have some (*AHEM STAR WARS*) movie that would also push it further..
again, the PS3 factor is really fading away.. PS3 sags in battle against xbox 360/wii http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123050978162738293.html?mod=special_page_campaign2008_mostpop
"But early results from this holiday season aren't promising. U.S. sales of the PS3 fell 19% last month from a year earlier, while sales doubled for the Wii console and rose 8% for the Xbox 360, according to research firm NPD. "
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