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I don't believe it could have flopped, simply because there are enough sci-fi fans in 1977 who would have gone and saw anything called "Star Wars" that a worst-case scenario would be about $5-8 million domestically, which when you account for overseas sales would just barely make its money back. In this case, i believe Lucas could have at least gotten to the meeting phase with Fox to discuss doing his planned low-budget sequel, Splinter of the Mind's Eye, which the studio would have green-lit with about a $5-8 million budget, and perhaps some changes demanded to ensure more commericiality. Probably meaning more romance and maybe a shirtless Luke. This film would probably just be able to make its money back as well, but then Lucas would probably be tired of doing silly sci fi flicks and would probably decided not to do a third film. He had already developed Raiders of the Lost Ark with Phillip Kaufman by then, and had booked his 1977 vacation to Hawaii before the first Star Wars was released, meaning his partnership with Speilberg would still be forged on that fateful trip. Which meant that following the relatively-unsuccessful sequel to the relatively-unsuccessful Star Wars he would still get rich with Raiders of the Lost Ark. After that, with more wealth and power he would probably try to make the third contractual Star Wars film with the budget he wanted, and make a high-budget and probably successful Star Wars III that again would be a stand-alone fun adventure film like the first two, and it would probably be pretty successful.
After that, who knows--maybe he would settle down into a producer role like he did for a while, raise his family with his wife. He would probably try to return to directing in the late 80's, probably with a more esoteric film like THX 1138, which of course would not do well, and would probably live a relatively comfortable life making these types of films, with income from the two successful Indiana Jones sequels keeping him financially secure. Meanwhile the Star Wars trilogy would develop a cult following, and maybe in the late 90's FOX would return to do one more installment after all the fan demand and CGI advancement, perhaps with or perhaps without Lucas involved. This film would probably be fairly successful as well, and would probably spawn reknewed interest into the cult series from the 70's, perhaps leading to yet another sequel or even an attempted television series. After a few milks from the cash cow people would move on to the next thing and the series would be remembered only by its cult fan base, and Lucas would probably be retired by then.
Very interest what-if.