I've already pre-ordered, so I'm at Nintendo's mercy regardless. Iwata did confirm that the price would not exceed $250 US, though. Hopefully the dastardly shopkeepers in Australia don't do what they do with a lot of other stuff - simply multiply the American price by two (not an accurate conversion at all).
But even if it does turn out to be $500 including my free game, it'll still be the cheapest launch price ever.