i donno personally i think blue ray is going to win out in the long run. IMO its all about the distributars, for blue ray not to have universal is a big hit and vicversa for HD-DVD to not have sony pictures. the fact that the PS3 will be blue ray will also have a big effect on the market, and as for the ps3 having back compatiblity to ps2 and ps1 games will help sell it over Xbox 360. i still think that PS3 will win over xbox 360 onces its released. the other big factor is the fact that companies will want something that has good longevity. since blue ray has more space i.e. 200 gb disks it is likely that in an attempt to predict the market they will go with blue ray. 15 years ago who would have thought whether the quality on a VHS was bad and that they would get clearer. thats much the same idea is going on with dvd. 20 years ago people thought that 16 mb of RAM was HUGE it was OVERKILL wwho needs more then that. now the average computer has 512 mb or even over a gig. same with Hard Drive, 5 years ago 30 gigs thats pretty big, now my 40 gig hard drive is considered small.