I like your analogy alot. Reflects all the news/foreign policy stuff I read/pay attention to frequently.

Tho I believe in canon through books or comics or whatever lore (i could be dead wrong), the new republic technically “demilitarized” (for reasons because they didn’t want to create another palpatine like scenario doing an emergency army act etc.) thus paving the way for when the TFO takes out the hosnian system, it became a free open playing ground for the first order to militarily occupy the galaxy.

That being said, the movies never made any of the political background and context clear at all.