The way the scene’s shot and the way Adam Driver and Daisy Ridley give their performances, it makes it clear that he’s just getting her to admit what she already knew was true. He may (may) be manipulating her, but he’s not manipulating the truth.

Either way, if he was manipulating her here, why not go with the Palpatine manipulation right off the bat? Pull the same stuff he says in TRoS instead of waiting a year? What happens when Rey finds out she’s not a nobody? Because that’s definitely going to eventually happen.