I think that transition is definitely suitable. And like you said, the issues with the transition lie with the nature of the films themselves.

Speaking as someone who isn’t overly familiar with the book or the films, there is a bit of awkwardness (and a little bit of humor) in the fact that the first half ends very optimistically, and Bilbo saying, “I do believe the worse is behind us”, and the second half beginning in the middle of a new dire situation. In a different version of this film, I could imagine a scenario where Bilbo says that line, then hard cutting to him hiding behind some rocks as he hears animal howling. It would be pretty funny moment if it were only cut different.

But honestly, the way the scene ends, it really makes you feel like they got away from the orcs and wargs. It feels like that threat is way behind them, but then the orcs are right on their tail again, without any indication when or how the orcs caught up with them.

You might not be looking for any suggestions on the transition (because honestly, it really is fine the way it is), but I think it would be interesting if after it cut to black, there was a bit more pause before we fade back into the film, and during the black screen we heard the distant howl of a wolf/warg, or the howling of a pack of wolves/wargs, to indicate to the audience that the threat is still near, and then when we fade back in we see that the wargs are back on their tail. It could prepare the audience to expect that our heroes will be in danger once again.

Anyway, might be worth playing around with just to see how it feels. But again, it’s not totally necessary.

EDIT: Also wanted to say that I’ve been enjoying your videos of you actually working on the scenes and explaining some of your changes. They’re really insightful!