The stricter the anti-epidemic measures, the lower the spread of the virus. Strict quarantine in Wuhan, closed educational institutions and factories, street fences, patrols, delimitation of zones, and the prohibition of free movement allowed reducing the growth of new infections in China to several hundred per day (and there were several thousand per day). But everything has a price. Disabled Chinese factories are disrupting production chains around the world, and commodity prices are falling. During quarantine, Chinese firms still have to pay wages to workers at home, which puts firms on the brink of bankruptcy.
The tourism and transport industries are already beginning to feel the effects of COVID-2019 and one can expect that it will only get worse. In my opinion, it will end in a severe economic crisis (more serious than in 2009). I would be glad to make a mistake…