A B+ CinemaScore for a giant blockbuster on its opening weekend isn’t great, no. Again, the scheduling might save it from a severe drop, but the comparison points I’m seeing used quite a bit aren’t great ones: Batman v. Superman, Justice League, and Venom.

Venom is a positive comparison, really. But the problem there is Venom broke out the way it did thanks to overseas numbers, and so far The Rise of Skywalker isn’t doing very well overseas, and won’t have the sort of domestic/international split that Venom had. Star Wars even at its MOST popular was always closer to a 50/50 split than most huge earners (which run between 40/60-30/70 in a lot of cases)

If this opens at 195 and has TLJ’s multiplier, it ends its run at $546 mil domestic. But that CinemaScore (and whatever media narrative might evolve between now and Christmas) makes a 2.8x run a little more of a question.

If it has a multiplier closer to Justice League’s, we’re looking at this movie just barely crossing $500 mil, and finishing under Rogue One domestically.

EDIT: 90mil Friday (including Thursday previews). If it matches either Last Jedi OR Force Awakens’ weekend arcs - this movie isn’t making $200 mil OW.