It’ll probably change.

For comparison’s sake, here are Deadline’s tracking articles for the previous entries:

$185-210m - The Force Awakens
https://deadline.com/2015/11/star-wars-the-force-awakens-box-office-opening-estimate-1201636913/

$200m - The Last Jedi
https://deadline.com/2017/11/star-wars-the-last-jedi-200-million-opening-1202213679/

$205m - The Rise of Skywalker
https://deadline.com/2019/11/star-wars-the-rise-of-skywalker-box-office-projection-reasons-why-1202796194/

The tracking numbers usually go up closer to release, but then again, tracking numbers are kind of… weird. It’s been written about multiple times that tracking past a certain point is basically magical guesswork because it’s hard to really plot what a movie might make in its opening weekend when the numbers get that large. $185-200 in 2015 was considered a HUGE bet - and yet the movie hit 249. Last Jedi ended up being $20m over its first projection.

Plus, the primary utility for tracking seems to be figuring out a way to add another hurdle for a movie to clear before it can be considered a “win.” It’s not enough that it makes a certain number now, because if that specific number is under whatever this TRACKING number is, that tracking is going to be held against it. It’s how you end up with movies almost doubling their budget in three days getting labeled as “a disappointment,” because industry insiders (who have admitted they’re not great at guessing these huge numbers) stuck an estimate on the film’s earning potential pre-release and the actual money that came in didn’t hit that.

Tracking is literally a set of goalposts that move behind the regular goalpost.