Like I said there’s obviously a contingent of hardcore fans who will, in fact, actually skip TROS. Star Wars is massive in a way that allows for “hardcore” fans of vastly different varieties. The question is whether there are fans who say they’ll skip, but are open to being persuaded to go based on the quality of the Mandalorian. These fans, I believe, will see it anyway, regardless of their thoughts on an unrelated TV show. Anyone who could reasonably considered a “hardcore fan” will know that Mandalorian has essentially no creative overlap with TROS, so whether they see TROS will not be affected by their reception of the Mandalorian.

You can make the argument that overall excitement and appreciation for the Star Wars brand can positively influence the box office of TROS, but then I’d argue that’s the sort of thing that’d only really affect the casual audience members. Maybe we’re into semantics now, but if you’re a hardcore Star Wars fan, at this point you know whether you’re going to see TROS in theaters or not.

Ultimately it’s a rather silly thing to discuss, because in the end there’ll be no way to tell definitively the effect one way or the other.