Hardcore fans are going to see TROS either way. Mandalorian will have nothing to do with it.
The question was specifically about fans who were polarized and not going, I think this thread alone shows you can both be a hardcore Star Wars fan and still be unwilling to see TRoS, at least in theaters.
I don’t understand the idea that’s constant floated around here that people will only see the new Disney Star Wars thing if they liked the last one, these are separate projects and audiences are generally smart enough to understand that. Anyway, if the reception of a previous project will determine the success of the next, by that metric shouldn’t Mandalorian be in potential jeopardy because of Solo and TLJ? No. The truth is Mandalorian will do big numbers, but they will obviously nothing compared to TROS, and neither will have much to do with the other.
Well, considering there originally was going to be a Mandalorian based movie and now we’re even getting the same treatment for the upcoming Kenobi series I would say yes it is a factor. Really isn’t just about a single movie either it’s the whole direction of the brand and how fans feel about it. I agree the two projects won’t have much to do with each other, another way to say that is you could pick one without needing to see both. The question is does that satisfy the split (however hypothetically large or small) within the demographics of fans who are happy/unhappy with the ST, or lead to greater fracturing or at least compartmentalizing between the groups and respective content?
If anything Mandalorian is a risk for TROS’s potential. We’ve never had live action Star Wars on the small screen, and Mandalorian looks to be feature film quality. If audiences see that they can just get Star Wars in the comfort of their living room, they might be less incentivized to go out for it. But again, that’s not hardcore fans, who will show up either way.
It is part of the broader theatrical vs streaming conversation, for sure. Truly I don’t have the answer, was trying to leave room for opinion, I really can’t say if the Mandalorian undercuts IX or hypes everyone up for more after they’ve completed the first season. My point though being the success or failure of any of these projects does influence the surrounding universe movies and their potential future.