Actually, if we look at TFA, it’s only competition in 2015 was Alvin and the Chipmunks. Not hard to see why one movie flopped, and the other became the third highest grossing of all time.

TROS, however, has to deal with…

Jumanji 2, a sequel to a proven franchise with great star power.
1917, a high-stakes war movie that looks very well made.
Cats, which will probably flop but might take presence in memes.
Spies in Disguise, which will likely flop but might take away from child audiences.
Frozen 2, despite coming out last month, will probably still have significant numbers over holidays.

Should 1917 get great word of mouth or Jumanji 2 continue to surprise like its predecessor, TROS is almost guaranteed to make less, regardless of it’s quality.