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Post #1299365

Author
klawrence123
Parent topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Link to post in topic
https://originaltrilogy.com/post/id/1299365/action/topic#1299365
Date created
1-Oct-2019, 12:23 PM

Here is the science behind this. Numbers do not lie…

If you are going to predict how TROS will do domestically, one has to look at the December calendar. TJL did not fare as well because the following Monday, the students were still in school. It had nothing to do with the online trolling, SW haters, etc. It is all about the holiday calendar. That’s why TLJ’s SECOND full week in the theater made more than its first week because students were in school. Both R1 and TFA had the benefit of a week where students were not in school. TROS will play similar fiddle to TFA and R1.

That being said, and knowing the holiday calendar, TROS will open very closely - if not more than - the TFA. It will play on about 500 more screens than TFA. If its per screen average is between TFA and TLJ, It will therefore open up to around 260,000,000 opening weekend. More than both TFA and TLJ. By the end of the holiday season, it will pass TLJ’s holiday season by over 100 million.

Keeping the same holiday schedule of SW movie goers (TFA and R1) by the time it is all said and done, it will finish just ahead of Endgame, with about 870 million. By the time it hits its 20th day of the holiday season, it will be well ahead of Endgame’s 20th day and stay ahead through its run.

If this movie gets reviewed well (as the last 4 did) and JJ pulls off a great ending, then it could top 900 million, but that’s a long shot.

Opening weekend = 260 M
Domestic = 870 M
Worldwide = 1.8 billion.

All of those “SW haters” won’t put a dent in this one.

Those are the numbers…