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Post #1293283

Author
DominicCobb
Parent topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations
Link to post in topic
https://originaltrilogy.com/post/id/1293283/action/topic#1293283
Date created
19-Aug-2019, 3:32 PM

act on instinct said:

Obviously just limited to domestic would put DC to shame against Star Wars, though with the poor numbers in China that’s a two way street.

When it comes to Disney’s perspective (which is all that really matters when discussing BO), they make a lower share of the money internationally, and an even lower share in China, from my understanding. So, for instance, Endgame is the biggest movie ever worldwide. But TFA is the biggest movie ever in the US. So it’s entirely likely that TFA actually made them more money, even if the overall total was lower. For whatever reason, as more and more big budget blockbusters become popular internationally, SW films specifically tend to have an above average US share of the worldwide grosses. In fact, this is the main reason Solo was a flop - it did decent (if disappointing) business in the US, but did even worse internationally. What this all means in terms of Disney’s strategy going forward, who knows, but it’s something to consider.

The part where it all burns to the ground could be the next cycle of trilogies, a risk I think they’d rather not take and just move it all to streaming which explains why even their highest profile anthology story everyone was begging for is now becoming a show instead of a movie. Disney is savvy about these things, they want to preserve their investment. Declining numbers is a way worse look than just not giving away your numbers and boasting about the success of your exclusive content streaming platform and new cash-flow of subscriber money.

I agree that the real test will be in what comes after TROS. Anyone who thinks IX is going to flop is essentially deluding themselves. But there’s no guarantee what comes after will hit. In an odd way, I think doing sequels with old characters might have hurt Disney in terms of other SW films. After a ten year wait, the audience was obviously hungry for any and everything SW, as evidenced by RO’s tremendous success. But I think when you have the genuine article come out so close to the new other thing trying to be it - like how we had Ford’s Solo in 2015 and Alden’s two and a half years later - audiences aren’t as likely to try out the new thing. It’s not hard to see how successful Solo could have been if there was no ST at all, and it was ten years after the PT and LFL was now making spin-offs like that. In that scenario it’s easy to see how Disney could have built up a Marvel-esque franchise, with a Solo film here, a Boba film there, a team up film, etc., especially considering they could afford to do lower numbers because they wouldn’t have the multiple billion dollar successes of the ST films to be compared to.

Now Disney is stuck, because why would general audiences turn out to see random whatever SW in 2022 when they just saw the epic conclusion of the Skywalker saga not three years before? Unlike Marvel post-Endgame, there’s no expanded universe of characters whose stories we are invested in seeing continue after the main characters of the ST have their arcs wrapped up. It’ll be tough to sell a brand new saga when they just did a new part of the saga everyone knows and loves. I can’t think of a precedent.