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Post #1292642

Parent topic
The Rise of Skywalker box office results: predictions and expectations - NO SPOILERS
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Date created
14-Aug-2019, 3:40 PM
Last modified
14-Aug-2019, 3:51 PM
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DominicCobb said:

Personally I can’t get past the fact that RO has the highest interest by far, yet lower BO than TFA and TLJ (and even on cumulative interest it’s still quite a bit higher, as is ROTS, over TLJ, despite the ultimate BO performance). Point being, it seems like a rather imprecise science, especially considering there isn’t the full picture for TROS yet.

RO has the highest peak interest, but I added the cumulative interest for a reason, since it provides an average over time, which is a more accurate measure. The relationship between the measured interest and box office has an accuracy of 70%, meaning that there obviously is a measure of uncertainly, but it is a strong relationship, implying a significant drop in interest more likely than not will result in lower box office returns.

And again, I have to ask, who cares exactly? Why bend over backwards to make a prediction when we’ll literally know how it’ll shape up in a few short months? Despite your protestations, it’s hard not to think you want TROS to fail.

I make predictions, because I’m a scientist, and this sort of stuff interests me. I hope TROS will get the reception it deserves. If it’s great and widely accepted by the fandom, and the public in general, I hope it succeeds. If it’s bad or another extremy divisive film, which further deepens the rift in the fandom, I hope it sinks faster than Titanic.