I found an interesting article that shows the strong relation between google searches (and trailer searches), and the box office success of blockbusters:
https://tubularinsights.com/do-youtube-movie-trailer-searches-correlate-to-box-office/
The full research paper:
In light of this paper I decided to do my own little analysis with google trends to see how TROS stacks up to previous Star Wars releases, and it’s not looking good for the upcoming film. I restricted myself to google searches in the US that start a year before the release date up till six months after the release date, and looked at the interest and the cumulative interest over that time frame. Here’s the outcome:
The reference point here is RO which has the highest peak interest, which is set at 100. As can be seen the cumulative interest for TFA has been the highest of all the films considered here, and the cumulative interest for Solo over the entire 18 month period has been the lowest. However, looking at the cumulative curve for episode IX/TROS after 7 months the overall interest is the lowest of all films considered including the box office flop Solo. It also seems interest in Star Wars has been on a steady decline in general since TFA’s release. There’s still some time to go before TROS will be released, so things might change, and it will be interesting to follow its progress, but it’s safe to conclude that interest for a Star Wars film four months prior to release has never been so low, and so I think the powers that be should be concerned, about what the future will hold in box office terms.
Ps.
Incidentally this analysis coincides with Bloomberg’s article on the struggling Star Wars franchise: