Sure, once he’d won states like Florida and Ohio, his chances went up. That makes perfect sense. That’s like saying that the Oklahoma Sooners had a 71% chance of beating the Kansas State Wildcats, but once the Wildcats were up by 14 at the start of the 4th quarter, Kansas State had a 90% chance of winning. That doesn’t change that it’s an upset. That doesn’t delegitimize polling or predictive models. That doesn’t mean that you always pick the underdogs in every contest because sometimes they win.