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Post #1240267

Author
CatBus
Parent topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Link to post in topic
https://originaltrilogy.com/post/id/1240267/action/topic#1240267
Date created
14-Sep-2018, 6:47 PM

moviefreakedmind said:

I doubt that Democrats will fail to take a majority in the House. They won’t take the Senate, though.

Most analysts put the threshold at 8-9% (8-9% Democratic victory means coin flip for House control, due to gerrymandering). Most analysts do not even attempt to account for Russian interference. I added 3% for that, based on 2016, but that’s a big wildcard. It may be too much, it may not be enough. But if Democrats only win by 7%, everyone agrees they’re not taking the House.

The fact that I have Democrats only losing one seat in the Senate means I think they’re going to have a strong year. Gaining three though? Yeesh.

Incidentally, 7% was the margin Republicans won by in the “Republican Revolution” that swept them to power in 94. It just shows the power of the gerrymander: having a message that resonates with 7% more voters than the other party could mean either an unquestionable game-changing mandate, or narrow loss, depending on which party you belong to.