Whoah. A recount in the Virginia General Assembly has flipped another seat to the Democrats, making it a 50-50 split, with the Democratic Lieutenant Governor breaking ties.

This is huge for so many reasons. There’s already a legal challenge to the existing gerrymander, so the legislature is likely to be ordered by the courts to redraw district boundaries. And even if they don’t, the Supreme Court has already ruled that off-year redistricting is perfectly okay for no reason at all, as long as you don’t violate the normal rules around district lines. So I suspect Virginia will have new districts drawn before the next election, regardless of how the court case goes.

Why does this matter? Virginia is a state where Democrats easily win statewide offices, and Republicans easily dominate the Legislature (usually hovering around a veto-proof margin). Even in general assembly races, Democrats regularly outpoll Republicans there by a large and growing margin, with only the gerrymander keeping them out of power. Basically, with an unbiased map, Virginia would be “bluer” than California. And I hope the Democrats don’t just turn the tables and gerrymander themselves into safety–they’re already safe with no gerrymander.

The Republicans are likely going to have to win back their majority by actually getting more votes than Democrats. In Virginia. Good luck with that.

EDIT: Argh. R’s still control the Senate there. Nevertheless, if the court orders a redrawn map, the House can now hold out for an unbiased map, and if they don’t get it, they can happily let the courts draw the lines.