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Post #1141411

Author
yhwx
Parent topic
Politics 2: Electric Boogaloo
Link to post in topic
https://originaltrilogy.com/post/id/1141411/action/topic#1141411
Date created
12-Dec-2017, 9:27 PM

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/alabama-senate-election-results/?lpup=11144550#livepress-update-11144550

As the conventional wisdom — and the Upshot’s cool model — now swings slightly back toward Jones again, it’s worth remembering that making extrapolations based on partial returns is a lot harder in a state like Alabama where we aren’t used to having competitive elections. That why models like the Upshot’s have wide confidence intervals (conveying a lot of uncertainty) and why you should be cautious about getting too far ahead of the story.