Virginia prediction: Northam will beat Gillespie, but the Republicans will easily maintain a hold on the House of Delegates, probably losing only a few seats. Trump’s overt white supremacist campaign only got 44.4% there last year, and although Republicans should get a bump due to it being an off-year election, that only bumped their candidate for Governor to 45.2% in 2013. The somewhat academic question will be if Gillespie’s overt white supremacist campaign puts him over or under 45.2%. If over, that means racism still has a strong enough appeal to the Virginia electorate that people will keep trying the Trump/Gillespie formula there (maybe supplementing by adding secondary issues other than appeals to racism). If under, that means white supremacy may play well in other states, but it’s a losing issue in Virginia statewide elections. If under by enough, it may even be an indicator of the “Trump effect” – a national drag on statewide/local Republican performance – certainly for people like Gillespie or LePage who are branding themselves as mini-Trumps.
I guess I should add the alternate scenario: if Gillespie wins, politicians around the nation will see it as a clear sign that running a “no issues/all racism” campaign will not only win in Republican-safe areas, but can be the critical formula to put them over the top in competitive or Democratic-leaning races. Or, worse, it will show it doesn’t matter what sort of campaign you run, you will win as long as you have the backing of Russian bots.